Reply #55: This is an excellent article:

[leyton]

From The American Prospect, an excellent treatment of the dilemma:

http://www.prospect.org/print/V15/2/schecter-c.html

Note: New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada (the Western sunbelt), an area of rapidly increasing population and in particular Hispanic population, which is more likely to vote for Democrats.

Snip:

Here's why. Putting the Gore-Nader vote together as an indicator of underlying Democratic strength, and comparing it with the Bush-Buchanan vote, the eight closest states the Democrats won in 2000 and will have to defend in 2004 are Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin. Using the same comparison, here are the eight closest states the Democrats lost in 2000, some of which they will obviously have to win in 2004: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Tennessee. By these rankings, only two out of 16 states critical to Democratic chances are in the South. Compare that with six in the Midwest and four in the Southwest and you have a sense of the mathematical logic that is driving the Democrats to focus their 2004 presidential strategy outside the South.

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