Reply #65: McCamy Taylor, thanks for stating the obvious.

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Here on DU, most of us give the Democratic point of view the benefit of the doubt. Some, however, choose to prop up the illegitimate regime of Bushco. Now if it's a question of intellectual honesty, you know, someone ACTUALLY believes Bush won, that's fine. But the consequence of stating that position is to receive some serious push-back.

I don't see any way Bush could have won and I've noticed huge inconsistencies including the margin of error problems in the 41 states that are clear pointers to some major problems. Just look at NH, where the Republicans had to effectuate their strategy--* does well right out of the gate. Well we know that in NH, the Republicans who ran that campaign are getting ready to do some time and pay some fines for ELECTION FRAUD. What would make us think it stopped at jamming phones and the like?
Nothing.

This is a willful, aggressive, take-no-prisoners regime. If there's anyone on this forum who wants to argue for them after massive race-based voter suppression, manipulation of centralized registration databases, and all the rest, take a look at this from one of the links posted for TruthIsAll. Respond to this with cogent arguments, you who say Bush won, convince yourselves by dealing with the facts:

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FALSE RECALL, RELUCTANT RESPONDERS, HOW THEY VOTED IN 2000: IMPLAUSIBLE, CONTRADICTORY AND MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllPollingSimulation.mht

Naysayers have a problem with the 2004 pre-election and exit polls. Regardless of how many were taken or how large the samples, the results are never good enough for them. They prefer to cite two implausible hypotheticals: Bush non-responders (rBr) and Gore voter memory lapse ("false recall").

There is no evidence that Gore voters forget any more than Bush voters. On the contrary, if someone you knew robbed you in broad daylight, would you forget who it was four years later? In 2000, Gore and the voters were robbed in broad daylight.

Naysayers claim that bias favored Kerry in the pre-election and exit polls. Yet they offer no evidence to back it up. They claim that Gore voters forgot and told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush in 2000. It's the famous "false recall" hypothetical. They were forced to use it when they could not come up with a plausible explanation for the impossible weightings of Bush and Gore voter turnout in the Final National Exit poll.

According to the final 2004 NEP, which Bush won by 51-48%, 43% of the 13660 respondents voted for Bush in 2000 while only 37% voted for Gore. This contradicts the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis. Furthermore, 43% of the 122.3 million who voted in 2004 is 52.57mm, yet Bush only got 50.45 mm votes in 2000. The 43/37% split is a mathematical impossibility.

In addition, approximately 1.75 mm Bush 2000 voters died prior to the 2004 election. Therefore, no more than 48.7 mm of Bush 2000 voters could have turned out to vote in 2004. The Bush 2000 voter share was 48.7/122.3 (or 39.8%), assuming that all of the Bush 2000 voters still living came to the polls. These mathematical facts are beyond dispute. Kerry won the final 1:25pm exit poll by 50.93-48.66%, assuming equal 39.8% weights.

For the same reason, Kerry must have done even better than his 51.4-47.6% winning margin at the 12:22am timeline (13047 respondents). Here the Bush/Gore mix was 41/39%. But we have just shown that 39.8% was the absolute maximum Bush share. If we apply equal weightings to the 12:22am results, then Kerry won by 52.25-46.77%, a 6.7 million vote margin (63.8-57.1mm).

First-time voters and those who sat out the 2000 election, as well as Nader and Gore 2000 voters, were overwhelming Kerry voters. The recorded Bush 2004 vote was 62 million. Where did he get the 13 million new voters from 2000? How do the naysayers explain it? Only by ignoring the mathematical facts and raising new implausible theories.
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