Reply #44: Simple answer is, if a consensus, including Iraq, calls for U.S to leave

[Tom Rinaldo]

then the U.S. should leave. And we should immediately make it as clear as possible through both public and back channels that the United States is not seeking nor shall it maintain permanent bases in Iraq. I think that successful diplomacy would result in exactly that demand, but linked to certain milestones of stability being achieved inside of Iraq, kind of a blueprint for withdrawal rather than a strictly calender driven timeline for withdrawal. Withdrawal has to be on the table during diplomatic discussions.

Syria has had a complex relationship with the United States in the past. Syria was part of our Desert Storm coalition and contributed significant numbers of troops to that U.S. led military operation under Bush the Elder. Syria has clear security concerns regarding Iran, and also Turkey, given the ongoing issue of the Kurds and how the Kurds in Northern Iraq would react if Iraq fell any further apart, and how Turkey would then react to that.

Syria is run as a secular state, that is their Baathist legacy, so the government in Syria is no natural friend of radical jihadist Al Quada expansionist forces any more than Hussein was in Iraq. And Al Quada is an extremist Sunni movement, which is of some potential concern to Iran. Under some circumstances it is conceivable that both Syria and Iran would provide some cooperation in helping to stabilize Iraq in return for a belief that their own national interests were being addressed in return. It is conceivable that they would not demand immediate U.S. withdrawal if the government in Iraq opposed an immediate U.S. withdrawal, so long as Syria and Iran had reason to believe that the U.S. was committed to getting out of Iraq as soon as possible provided Iraq could be stabilized in the process.

Obviously, after having "installed" and promoted democracy in Iraq, if the new Iraq government calls for the U.S. to leave Iraq the U.S. must be bound to do so. That is simply a bottom line and is not a comment on how legitimately the Iraq government that will be elected in December actually represents the will of the factionalized Iraq public.

You know, I'm just sitting in upstate New York and I have no inside contacts in the region so I am never going to be able to speak with authority about what is possible and what is not. Clark is among those who do have inside contacts in the region. He is not alone in that of course, and others who do reach different conclusions than Clark. You are correct. There is no guarentee that diplomacy will work either. There are very few guarentees in that region of the world.