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Reply #220: Look at all the data, not just one state [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-04 12:05 AM
Response to Reply #211
220. Look at all the data, not just one state

You're cherry picking taking the state with a small margin and then dismissing the entire problem out of hand.

Ohio was the least anomalous when I took the sample. As you have now triple checked, it was less than 4%. However, the other states were much further off. Illinois and possibly Ohio are within the margin of error, the other states are not. Such a discrepancy also should of triggered automated systems and an investigation by the press pool that was recording the exit polling results. Rather than fulfill their oblugation to report the problem, they apparently modified their exit polling results instead so they matched the actual results!

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Here is a summary of the results I recorded Tuesday evening.

I've rounded off to the nearest percent. The time listed is when I crunched the raw CNN Exit Poll data and produced the second value, which is a +/- value difference between what exit polls showed for Kerry vs. what was actually being reported by the precincts. For example, in Ohio Bush was +3% higher in actual precinct reporting than the exit poll data indicated.

In every case listed below, there is a discrepancy in favor of Bush between the exit polls and actual results. WIth the exception of Illinios, I'd call them outside of expected values.

Time Bush Bias State

08:34PM +3 Ohio
08:34PM +5 Florida
09:29PM +5 Michigan
09:30PM +2 Illinois
09:32PM +6 New Mexico
10:01PM +7 Wisconsin
10:07PM +5 Minnesota

The next three states had exit poll results that were virtually identical to the precinct reported results. This would indicate the exit polls were predicting results very accurately for these three states.

09:39PM +0.1 Nevada
10:36PM +0.1 New Hampshire
11:03PM +0.5 Maine

Nevada and New Hampshire have paper audit trials mandated by state law. Maine does not use any electronic voting machines. It's possible this is a coincidence, or perhaps the EVoting sytems have something to do with the problem. There is no way to be certain because the software running in those machines has not been inspected. The DNC attempted to do so in Florida, but were blocked by Republicans who said the software was "proprietary" and the DNC had no legal right to inspect it.

According to the compact signed by the six news agencies who performed the exit polling, automated systems should of been triggered on election night when these variances began between exit polls and actual results. They were then obligated to investigate the variances for potential problems.

It appears that rather than investigate and notify the public of a potential problem, they instead chose to modify their exit polling data in the wee hours of the morning so they would conform to the expected election results, which showed a Bush victory.

It is essential that we have faith in our voting process. I for one cannot accept these election results until an investigation has been performed,a full disclosure has been made of what went wrong and why, and it can be proven that our votes were properly registered and counted.
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