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Reply #215: Rebuttal to Salon comments [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 10:34 PM
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215. Rebuttal to Salon comments
"The most obvious example here is Nevada, the only state in the nation to use what many computer scientists consider to be the safest touch screen machines -- machines that print a paper ballot that is reviewed by the voter as each vote is cast, a so-called voter-verified paper trail. In Nevada, the last exit polls showed Kerry leading Bush by 49 to 48 percent, with 1 percent for Ralph Nader. The actual result was a win for Bush by 51 to 48 percent. "

That's correct, as of November 3rd, the exit polling in Nevada shows a discrepancy. I checked those results myself on the 3rd. What you've failed to realize, and point out, is that the exit polling data was changed sometime shortly after 1:30AM CST. Prior to that, the exit polls for Nevada were tracking accurately with the precinct reporting results. I've posted the screen shots of one of the changes that we had a before and after for, but none of the news agencies commenting on this story are bothering to mention that fact.

I suggest those who have access go back to before 10PM PST on Nov 2nd, before they were changed, and use the exit polling data at that time to do the comparison. What I heard was that CNN claimed they had "oversampled black voters" so they re-did their calculations.

The Edison company began conforming the exit polls to match the actual results after 1:30AM CST.





"And even in states that do use paperless touch-screen machines, it's not clear that Bush made his gains in touch-screen areas of the states, rather than regions that use other machines. For instance, in Florida, it's the state's large South Florida counties that use paperless touch screens. But Bush did worse in these regions in 2004 than in 2000. In the 2000 race in Miami-Dade, Bush got about 47 percent of the two-party share of the vote, while Al Gore received 53 percent; this year, Bush only got 46 percent of the two-party vote there, while Kerry got 54 percent. What this means is that in the move from punch-card machines (which, as everyone remembers, Miami-Dade used in 2000) to paperless touch screens, Bush actually did worse, not better. At the same time, the president gained in Orange County, Florida. In 2000, Gore beat Bush in Orange County, whose largest city is Orlando; this year, Kerry lost to Bush there. And Bush didn't need rigged machines to do it -- Orlando uses paper-based optical scan voting machines, which computer scientists consider more reliable than the touch screen systems. "

It's irrelevant whether Kerry won Orange County or not. A state's electoral votes are decided by the total number of votes for each candidate. Bush losing 1% vs. 2000 is readily explained by a much higher turnout in 2004 vs. 2000. Anyone who stood in line for hours in Florida to vote will attest to the turnout.

If we want to speculate, and at this point it is speculation, as to the cause, it could of been machine results in a Republican county that were in error or changed.

What needs to happen is an investigation into the exit polls and why they were off in a number of states vs. the actual results that were announced.


Here are the results for FLORIDA and OHIO using the exit poll data before it was modified to match the actual voting results:

FLORIDA

Male: 52/47 Kerry 46%
Female: 52/48 Kerry 54%

(0.46 * 52) + (0.54 * 47) = 49.3% Kerry
(0.46 * 52) + (0.54 * 48) = 49.8% Bush

Exit polls using the breakdown you provided shows a dead heat.

The actual reported results have Bush winning Florida by 5%.

OHIO

Male: 51/49 Kerry 47%
Female: 53/47 Kerry 53%

(0.47 * 51) + (0.53 * 49) = 49.94% Kerry
(0.47 * 53) + (0.53 * 47) = 49.82% Bush

Exit polls show a dead heat.

The actual reported results have Bush winning Ohio by 3% and 1% to Nader.

Here is Nevada, as the poster said, with a disparity as of Nov 3rd.
This disparity was not present on the evening of the 2nd.

NEVADA (from MSNBC this morning)

Kerry 44 54 with 48% Men
Bush 52 47 with 52% Women

(0.48 * 54) + (0.52 * 44) = 48.8% Kerry
(0.48 * 52) + (0.52 * 47) = 49.4% Bush

Exit polls, Bush ahead by 0.6%. Actual results Bush won by 3%
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