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Reply #167: FLORIDA and OHIO - a 2nd time [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 01:19 PM
Response to Reply #164
167. FLORIDA and OHIO - a 2nd time
Edited on Wed Nov-03-04 01:32 PM by SoCalDemocrat
FLORIDA

Male: 52/47 Kerry 46%
Female: 52/48 Kerry 54%

(0.46 * 52) + (0.54 * 47) = 49.3% Kerry
(0.46 * 52) + (0.54 * 48) = 49.8% Bush

Exit polls using the breakdown you provided shows a dead heat.

The actual reported results have Bush winning Florida by 5%.

OHIO

Male: 51/49 Kerry 47%
Female: 53/47 Kerry 53%

(0.47 * 51) + (0.53 * 49) = 49.94% Kerry
(0.47 * 53) + (0.53 * 47) = 49.82% Bush

Exit polls show a dead heat.

The actual reported results have Bush winning Ohio by 3% and 1% to Nader.


NEVADA (from MSNBC this morning)

Kerry 44 54 with 48% Men
Bush 52 47 with 52% Women

(0.48 * 54) + (0.52 * 44) = 48.8% Kerry
(0.48 * 52) + (0.52 * 47) = 49.4% Bush

Exit polls, Bush ahead by 0.6%. Actual results Bush won by 3%

Note that's not using last nights raw data. I didn't post the raw data for other states so we can't re-run them (AP reworked their exit polling data late last night).



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