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Reply #133: Fuzzy Math [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
Mantooth Donating Member (125 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 09:24 AM
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133. Fuzzy Math
Ok, I'm looking only at the Exit Poll numbers here and they don't make sense. At 12:21am, they looked like this:



Converting the percentages to actual voters, I get:

Total Respondants: 1,963
Male (47%): 923
Female (53%): 1,040

Break it down further, I get:

Male/Kerry (51%): 471
Male/Bush (49%): 452

Female/Kerry (53%): 551
Female/Bush (47%): 489

Final Results:

Kerry: 1,022 (52%)
Bush: 941 (48%)


An hour and a half later, the exit polls look like this:



I am assuming, at least for the purposes of this post, that the additional respondants are due to more exit poll results coming in (which would mean that most of those people standing in line after the polls closed were repubs?!) Anyway, again converting the percentages to actual voters, I get:

Total Respondants: 2,020
Male (47%): 949
Female (53%): 1,071

Break it down further, I get:

Male/Kerry (47%): 446
Male/Bush (52%): 494

Female/Kerry (50%): 535
Female/Bush (50%): 535

Final Results:

Kerry: 982 (49%)
Bush: 1,029 (51%)


So now let's look at the actual net change in number of votes between the two:

Male/Kerry: -24
Male/Bush: 42

Female/Kerry: -16
Female/Bush: 46

Total Kerry: -40
Total Bush: 88

So, they're saying that, in an hour and a half, after adding 57 votes to the second set of results, that Kerry actually lost a total of 40 votes?! How do you lose votes? Were not talking about an estimate, or percentages. These are actual exit poll vote results. It's like saying at 10pm, Kerry has 1 million votes, and at 11pm, he has 900,000 votes!

If someone can explain it to me, I'd appreciate it.

BTW, due to rounding, these numbers may not be 100% on the nose (for example, there were 57 votes added to the second poll result, but there is only a net change of 48 votes between Kerry and Bush due to the male vote being approx. 99% for Kerry/Bush, 1% for other). But I've tried looking at the numbers even if I round Kerry down and Bush up, and I still get the same kinds of results.
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