Seattle Weekly: Armageddon for the GOP

[unfrigginreal]

With seven days left, Dino Rossi and other Washington Republicans need a miracle.

by George Howland Jr.

As the election campaigns enter the final week, GOP consultant Dave Mortenson echoes the sentiments of candidates, operatives, and voters alike: "One woman compared it to childbirth. When you get to the end, you just want it to be over with."

While momentum can shift in as little as a week, Nov. 2 still, as it has for months, looks good for state Democrats. Last week, the GOP received bad news from some of its own. First, on Tuesday, Oct. 19, Republican Secretary of State Sam Reed predicted a staggering turnout of 84 percent of the state's voters in the general election—the highest in 60 years. Says fellow Republican Randy Pepple, CEO of Rockey Hill & Knowlton: "When you get above 80 percent, that's dangerous for any Republican." That's because as turnout increases, the electorate becomes more inclusive, with more low-income and minority voters—two groups that favor the Democrats.

Then on Wednesday, Oct. 20, the GOP firm Strategic Vision released a poll of state voters that showed Democratic Sen. John Kerry leading President George W. Bush in Washington 50 percent to 45 percent; Democratic Sen. Patty Murray was ahead of her challenger, GOP U.S. Rep. George Nethercutt of Spokane, 49-41; and Democratic gubernatorial candidate and Attorney General Christine Gregoire was besting her Republican opponent, former state Sen. Dino Rossi of Sammamish, 48-42. All the leads were outside the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent. In fact, all the polls released publicly by any campaign or independent group in the past two months have shown Kerry, Murray, and Gregoire ahead, although not always beyond the polls' margins of error.

Many Republicans were left hoping that Bush would have such a decisive victory elsewhere in the country that the TV networks would declare the president the victor before the polls close in Washington. "Bush is going to win a lot of states back East," says GOP consultant Mortenson. "What ramifications will that have on voting in Washington state?"

Democratic consultant Christian Sinderman responds: "If that's their talking point, they must be worried about Armageddon."

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