Reply #28: I didnt check the numbers voted on per day

[Nicholas_J]

just assumed that the 1000 give was correct, and then repeated the standard methodology for tracking polls which is that they are polling x number of people over a three day period, and then averaging out the days, so a smaller number of people are polled each day. This method gets an average of polling over that three day period, which is less accurate than taking a poll over three days and then stating what percent of that entire number voted for each candidate.

Both Zogby and Rasmusssen are averaging the results over a three day period, rather than giving the data it figures for the entire group. Which means that oneone day Kerry can be ten points ahead of Bush in the poll, but the next day he could be wo points behind, and the next dead even so the results would show him behind, While in the total of the votes he could actually be ahead.

Oddly enough none of the natioal pollsare reflecting the reality on thge ground, where even in heavily Republican districts, exit polls are showing democrats voting in higher numbers than expected. In most cases 25 percent higher than expected. In fact, the numbers are coming out in the reverse of the percentages Gallop, Rasmussen, Mason Dixon and SUSA use. They are all using models that show Republicans outvoting democrats by anywhere from 5percent to 25 percent while right nowm the daily percentage by which Democrats are voting is 25 percent higher than Gallop anticipated by more than 25 percent in Republican dominated areas

Gallop anticipated that the voter breakdown would be 39 percent Republican 30 percent Democrat, and the rest independent. In fact, right now in the heaviest Republican districts in early voting states. Democrats are voting at about 40 percent in those Republican areas. Which is why Republicans are trying to get tens of thousands of democratic votes thrown out for techicaliteis on the applications in Republican dominated counties in Florida and Ohio. I do not think the courts will disenfranchise voters again for the minor techincal mistakes ointed out be Republicans (such as having two places to sign asserting that you are a U.S. citiizen, and the person only signs in one place, thinking he only needs to assert it once)

Early voting is showing Kerry is ahead of Bush in most of the state where it is happening.

In fact, in some cases state where early voting is occuring are showing that the total number of voters who vote this year may be as much as 78 percent higher than the percentage of people who voted in 2002. This election may show the highest percentage of registered voters voting in the last 50 years.