jean
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Sun Oct-24-04 10:57 AM
Response to Reply #4 |
| 6. UV allocation impact on Kerry EV and Win Probability - here |
| -99.94%! Kerry's win probability (332 EV) if he gets 75% of the undecided |
TruthIsAll |
Oct-24-04 10:49 AM |
#0 |
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I doubt he gets 75% of undecideds... |
Dawgs |
Oct-24-04 10:51 AM |
#1 |
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This assumes how much Democratic and Republican turnout? |
requiem99 |
Oct-24-04 10:51 AM |
#2 |
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There are no turnout assumptions-in the model, but you are right. |
TruthIsAll |
Oct-24-04 11:03 AM |
#7 |
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Uh |
requiem99 |
Oct-24-04 11:05 AM |
#9 |
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Useless? Hmm... |
TruthIsAll |
Oct-24-04 11:08 AM |
#10 |
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Yes, useless. Without the turnout factored in |
requiem99 |
Oct-24-04 11:10 AM |
#12 |
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I agree, "useless" isn't right, but I have the same question. |
johan helge |
Oct-24-04 01:35 PM |
#29 |
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Ok, I want to add that too: thanks for trying. |
endnote |
Oct-24-04 01:37 PM |
#30 |
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Bob Shrumm predicted that Kerry will receive |
AmerDem |
Oct-24-04 10:52 AM |
#3 |
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What is the result with 55% of undecided? |
papau |
Oct-24-04 10:52 AM |
#4 |
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For 55%, its 94.54% with 306 EV |
TruthIsAll |
Oct-24-04 10:57 AM |
#5 |
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thanks! |
papau |
Oct-24-04 11:16 AM |
#14 |
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UV allocation impact on Kerry EV and Win Probability - here |
jean |
Oct-24-04 10:57 AM |
#6 |
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Thanks. I forgot to mention that graph. |
TruthIsAll |
Oct-24-04 11:05 AM |
#8 |
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TruthIsAll |
trumad |
Oct-24-04 11:10 AM |
#11 |
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Thanks |
Bush Lies |
Oct-24-04 12:04 PM |
#22 |
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good question... |
BlueNomad |
Oct-24-04 12:12 PM |
#23 |
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Correction: for 55%, the probability is 97.1% |
TruthIsAll |
Oct-24-04 01:05 PM |
#25 |
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This is BS. It only encourages Dems to stay home. |
endnote |
Oct-24-04 11:14 AM |
#13 |
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On the contrary, they will be motivated to get in on the landslide. |
TruthIsAll |
Oct-24-04 11:20 AM |
#15 |
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Look, say it rains that day. I remember from your post that this is |
endnote |
Oct-24-04 11:25 AM |
#16 |
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many people don't have the chance to see tia's work - they |
jean |
Oct-24-04 11:37 AM |
#17 |
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"factual" ? what are you talking about ? |
endnote |
Oct-24-04 11:42 AM |
#18 |
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Nothing factual? Back that statement up with YOUR facts. |
TruthIsAll |
Oct-24-04 01:12 PM |
#26 |
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TIA, I don't need to obsess about EV Monte Carlo simulations to |
endnote |
Oct-24-04 01:17 PM |
#27 |
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Look, I welcome criticism, but to call the model "useless", shows that |
TruthIsAll |
Oct-24-04 02:26 PM |
#31 |
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Well, I have my own model, but not foolish enough to claim it's infallible |
AwsieDooger |
Oct-24-04 04:41 PM |
#32 |
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One Big Difference: Bush is Universally Hated. Fact. |
TruthIsAll |
Oct-24-04 05:35 PM |
#33 |
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and what if these things happen? |
msongs |
Oct-24-04 11:43 AM |
#19 |
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If people did that we would not have Chimpy to start with. |
endnote |
Oct-24-04 11:45 AM |
#20 |
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Do you REALLY believe people stay home based on polls this year? |
undercover_brother |
Oct-24-04 11:57 AM |
#21 |
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I HOPE SO. If it is a heavy rain day in some states, things |
endnote |
Oct-24-04 01:19 PM |
#28 |
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Not a chance. I'll bet most DUers think this is one of the |
lagniappe |
Oct-24-04 12:20 PM |
#24 |
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