Right Wing pollsters are worried about a Dean upset over *

[mzmolly]

http://www.moore-info.com/Poll_Updates/2004%20Election%20%20Why%20Dean%20can%20win%20Sept%2003.htm

~snip~

Howard Dean has many qualities that make him a strong candidate, but the best way to judge his ability to win is simply to do the math. Below is a list of states we believe Howard Dean could win. We have broken them down into three columns. The first column is basically the Democrat base. The second column consists of Democrat leaners/swing states. The third column is Republican leaning states where Democrats have won in the recent past and could do so again.

See chart at link...

As you see, Dean can win even without Florida. Furthermore, of the 23 states that make up these 270 electoral votes, Bush only won two in 2002, squeaking by in Nevada but only getting 49.5% of the total vote, and winning West Virginia with 51.9%. With no significant opposition to Harry Reid in the Senate race and the nuclear repository issue alive and kicking, Nevada is going to be tough for the President. And West Virginia is a very Democrat state, where Dean’s willingness to work with the NRA on gun owners’ rights will go a long way toward deflecting the “liberal” charge.


Today there are four states that we would put in the lean Republican column but these states -- Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio -- could go either way.

The remaining states give Bush a base of 206 electoral votes to start. Basically, it will be tough for any of the current candidates to wrest these states away from the President barring any catastrophic developments. Oh sure, if Wesley Clark is a Veep choice he might make Arkansas competitive, but overall, Bush will have a solid South through the Great Plains and Mountain States. So Bush starts with 206 and Dean starts with 183. Judge for yourself whether or not you think Dean could be formidable in the states above. Because as Al Gore learned in 2000, the popular vote doesn’t elect the President. The Electoral College does, and when you do the math, a Dean candidacy is a lot more realistic than people think.

The difference between Howard Dean and the rest of the Democrat candidates is that Dean comes across as a true believer to the base but he will not appear threatening to folks in the middle. More than any other candidate in the field, he will be able to present himself as one who cares about people (doctor), who balances budgets (governor), and who appears well grounded while looking presidential. To be sure, he doesn’t look that way to the GOP base, but that has no bearing on the election, because they will never vote for him anyway. He can appeal to the middle and Republicans can ignore his candidacy at our peril. We are whistling past the graveyard if we think Howard Dean will be a pushover."

~end snip~

The Republican point of view. Gives a bit of perspective as to why they so fear Dean.