Reply #13: My 2 cents

[Woody Box]

This is great work again, John and Zaphod, and I like your method: "conclusio ex negativo".

I disagree with Paul that you suggest the existence of two or more planes - you're examining all possibilities which are mathematically possible just to show that none of them adds up. But.

Among your scenarios, I have a clear favourite: A plane coming in from northwest and then crossing Indian Lake. I think the witnesses in the Northwest and the witnesses at Indian Lake saw the same plane. But I don't think it made a U-Turn. The plane approached the lake from west and exploded in a fireball right over the lake. The debris rained down and vanished in the water.

My favourite witness is Jim Stop because we know his position very good: Jim Stop of Somerset was fishing at the Indian Lake marina, about three miles from the crash site, when he looked up and saw the plane overhead.“I heard the engine whine and scream,” Stop said. He then heard an explosion and saw a fireball.

Here's a picture from Indian Lake:



As you see, the lake is surrounded by trees, like many lakes. I have difficulties to accept that Jim Stop saw a fireball three miles away and 100 ft in the air - the trees would have blocked his view.

My guess is the plane came in from the west or northwest (I agree with Paul that no Indian Lake witness explicitly says he has seen the plane coming in from the east) and exploded over the lake, probably shot down by the mysterious white plane. But a closer topographic examination is necessary to support this thesis.

Just my 2 cents, but I think Occam is on my side.