Nederland
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Tue Apr-12-11 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #16 |
| 19. I would agree with this |
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It will take longer to validate the models in a scientific sense than it will take to know what we need to know.
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| -Science - "Unlikely" That 2C Goal Remains Attainable, No Matter What Happens Next |
hatrack |
Apr-11-11 12:11 PM |
#0 |
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And now back to |
pscot |
Apr-11-11 12:20 PM |
#1 |
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Is this REALLY such a big deal? |
FBaggins |
Apr-11-11 12:54 PM |
#2 |
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LOL |
RaleighNCDUer |
Apr-11-11 12:58 PM |
#3 |
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FBaggins is all for fighting global climate change just so long... |
Tesha |
Apr-17-11 07:41 AM |
#78 |
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Not at all. |
FBaggins |
Apr-18-11 10:15 PM |
#84 |
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Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhous |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-11-11 02:00 PM |
#4 |
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Like sands through the hourglass... |
XemaSab |
Apr-11-11 02:25 PM |
#5 |
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I keep telling you people: all you have to do is make me Emperor of the Universe |
txlibdem |
Apr-11-11 02:26 PM |
#6 |
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Say goodbye to the Arctic ice cap |
n2doc |
Apr-11-11 03:02 PM |
#7 |
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Water is wet |
Dead_Parrot |
Apr-11-11 03:28 PM |
#8 |
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Conclusions based on computer models are not credible |
Nederland |
Apr-11-11 04:02 PM |
#9 |
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That word “slightly” |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-11-11 05:03 PM |
#10 |
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Not sure I get your point |
Nederland |
Apr-11-11 07:21 PM |
#11 |
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My point regards your claim, "Conclusions based on computer models are not credible" |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-12-11 08:50 AM |
#12 |
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Not sure you read my post carefully enough |
Nederland |
Apr-12-11 11:40 AM |
#14 |
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No, I read it. |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-12-11 01:58 PM |
#15 |
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I'm not a fan of models myself |
XemaSab |
Apr-12-11 02:17 PM |
#16 |
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Well, that's what the models predict |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-12-11 03:33 PM |
#18 |
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I would agree with this |
Nederland |
Apr-12-11 03:34 PM |
#19 |
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When (in your estimation) will we know enough to act? |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-12-11 04:01 PM |
#21 |
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Like I said, in 20 or 30 years |
Nederland |
Apr-12-11 05:37 PM |
#22 |
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OK, fair enough, we’ve waited 30 years. (Can we do something now?) |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-13-11 12:27 PM |
#32 |
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Still ignoring the main point |
Nederland |
Apr-12-11 03:20 PM |
#17 |
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That's right, if the models are anywhere close to accurate, we don't have 20 or 30 years |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-12-11 03:48 PM |
#20 |
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Response |
Nederland |
Apr-12-11 05:42 PM |
#23 |
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It's a gross misrepresentation to suggest that Gavin Schmidt thinks we don't have enough data |
Barrett808 |
Apr-13-11 08:25 AM |
#26 |
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No it is not |
Nederland |
Apr-13-11 09:54 AM |
#27 |
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So the most recent analysis with the most data is the less useful analysis? |
Viking12 |
Apr-13-11 10:40 AM |
#30 |
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Which model are you talking about? |
Nederland |
Apr-14-11 12:00 AM |
#34 |
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Gavin: "So to conclude, global warming continues. Did you really think it wouldn’t?" |
Barrett808 |
Apr-13-11 12:19 PM |
#31 |
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Yes it is unequivocal |
Nederland |
Apr-13-11 11:54 PM |
#33 |
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Why would Earth not continue to warm? |
Barrett808 |
Apr-15-11 09:31 AM |
#40 |
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You tell me |
Nederland |
Apr-15-11 11:00 AM |
#44 |
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“Interesting data” but misleading |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-15-11 11:31 AM |
#48 |
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Did you even look at the graph captions? |
Nederland |
Apr-15-11 08:18 PM |
#56 |
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"Trends" with less than 30 years of annual data are noise. n/t |
Barrett808 |
Apr-16-11 10:26 AM |
#65 |
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Yes I did |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-16-11 02:27 PM |
#72 |
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You need at least 20-30 years of annual data to infer a significant trend. Here's why: |
Barrett808 |
Apr-15-11 11:49 AM |
#49 |
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I question if even that is enough |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-15-11 11:56 AM |
#50 |
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Ok, how about we look at the 100 year tend? (nt) |
Nederland |
Apr-15-11 08:25 PM |
#57 |
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Here ya go, straight from NASA: |
Barrett808 |
Apr-16-11 11:01 AM |
#66 |
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What exactly is your point? |
Nederland |
Apr-16-11 04:02 PM |
#75 |
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"No, honest scientists know we don't have enough data to render judgement yet." |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-13-11 10:10 AM |
#28 |
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Let's cut to the chase shall we? |
Nederland |
Apr-14-11 12:03 AM |
#35 |
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CanESM2 is the latest version of CanESM which is based on previous models dating back 30 years |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-14-11 07:08 PM |
#36 |
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You are using the wrong criteria |
Nederland |
Apr-15-11 01:27 AM |
#37 |
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I guess we need to define accurate |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-15-11 09:32 AM |
#41 |
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Excellent suggestion |
Nederland |
Apr-15-11 10:10 AM |
#42 |
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"Why does it matter that the models are all so different?" |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-15-11 11:09 AM |
#46 |
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It IS true |
Nederland |
Apr-15-11 08:08 PM |
#54 |
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Of course it is |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-16-11 02:11 PM |
#70 |
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Absolute nonsense. |
Viking12 |
Apr-15-11 01:24 PM |
#51 |
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Absolute nonsense |
Nederland |
Apr-15-11 08:10 PM |
#55 |
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So you don't even have a clue about the position you defend so vigorously? |
Viking12 |
Apr-15-11 09:13 PM |
#58 |
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I certainly have more of a clue than you |
Nederland |
Apr-15-11 10:08 PM |
#60 |
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So let's look at how accurate those Candian models have been |
Nederland |
Apr-15-11 02:52 AM |
#39 |
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I guess I don't see some horrible inaccuracy there. |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-15-11 10:56 AM |
#43 |
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Really? |
Nederland |
Apr-15-11 11:06 AM |
#45 |
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Yeah, really. |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-15-11 11:22 AM |
#47 |
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Make up your mind |
Nederland |
Apr-15-11 10:06 PM |
#59 |
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The models are not validated simply by looking forward |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-16-11 02:38 PM |
#73 |
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Yes they are |
Nederland |
Apr-16-11 04:25 PM |
#76 |
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Question |
Nederland |
Apr-16-11 04:14 AM |
#64 |
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Yes, I understand what a chaotic system is |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-16-11 03:08 PM |
#74 |
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Current Temperature Graphs |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-13-11 10:19 AM |
#29 |
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Was it? |
Nederland |
Apr-15-11 01:31 AM |
#38 |
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Um… really? I mean… seriously!? |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-15-11 03:38 PM |
#52 |
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Seriously |
Nederland |
Apr-16-11 03:45 AM |
#62 |
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12 years is not long enough to compute a reliable trend |
Barrett808 |
Apr-16-11 11:02 AM |
#67 |
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Ok, how many years do you need? (nt) |
Nederland |
Apr-18-11 07:02 PM |
#80 |
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Well, 18 years, as I've mentioned elsewhere in this thread. n/t |
Barrett808 |
Apr-18-11 07:22 PM |
#81 |
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18 *more* years, I meant to say. n/t |
Barrett808 |
Apr-18-11 09:00 PM |
#82 |
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How ironic |
Nederland |
Apr-18-11 10:03 PM |
#83 |
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Obviously, I meant "years of data" not "more years of observation" |
Barrett808 |
Apr-19-11 10:38 AM |
#86 |
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And 1999 was much cooler than 2010 |
OKIsItJustMe |
Apr-16-11 02:24 PM |
#71 |
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"All models are wrong, but some are useful." -- George E. P. Box |
Barrett808 |
Apr-12-11 09:10 AM |
#13 |
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Solipsistic pseudo-skeptical babble. |
Odin2005 |
Apr-12-11 10:10 PM |
#24 |
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+3 (+/-1.5) |
Viking12 |
Apr-13-11 06:28 AM |
#25 |
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Yes, let's wait until models are accurate to 0.001C over multiple lifetimes of the universe . . . |
hatrack |
Apr-15-11 07:31 PM |
#53 |
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Can I borrow a dollar? |
XemaSab |
Apr-15-11 10:35 PM |
#61 |
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Nice strawman |
Nederland |
Apr-16-11 03:51 AM |
#63 |
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A "ten-year period" is not long enough to infer a trend |
Barrett808 |
Apr-16-11 11:03 AM |
#68 |
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Nice try |
Nederland |
Apr-16-11 01:40 PM |
#69 |
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This graph illustrates why you can't infer anything from short time periods: |
Barrett808 |
Apr-16-11 07:16 PM |
#77 |
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Are you a liar or simply willfully ignorant of what the near term projections actually are? |
Viking12 |
Apr-19-11 10:36 AM |
#85 |
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Video shows that it doesn't matter if climate data is exact or not |
txlibdem |
Apr-17-11 08:40 AM |
#79 |
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