Reply #5: What part of growth will not remain exponential. Law of large numbers.

[Statistical]

In 2000 wind power growth rate was 37% annually.
By 2008 that had dropped to 24% annually.
The wind lobby estimate for growth rate in 2015 will be 16% annually.

No system continues to grow exponentially forever.

Growing 38% on such a small base is horrible.

US power consumption is 3816 TWh annually. So solar to supply just 1% of that (at 17% capacity factor) would require 25GW.

So even if growth rate as a % remained static (and it will decline it always declines) it would take about 6 years before solar produces 1% of power grid demand.
Of course that ignores that demand is projected to grow by about 3% (19% over 6 years). So based on growing demand it is more like 7-8 years before solar produces a mere 1% of electrical power.

Solar won't continue to grow at 38% annually. All we need to do is look at wind (and slowing growth %). Wind is roughly a decade ahead of solar.