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Reply #67: So that graph is taking a 20 year trend and extrapolating it by 100? [View All]

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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-10 07:08 PM
Response to Reply #64
67. So that graph is taking a 20 year trend and extrapolating it by 100?
Do you even know how extrapolation is done? It's even more hilarious, taking a 5 year trend and extrapolating it by 100. Why not take the 1993-1998 trend and extrapolate it by 100.

Nonsense.
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  -This month warmest on satellite record (so far): joshcryer  Feb-02-10 07:02 PM   #0 
  - This DECADE is the warmest ever -- !!!  defendandprotect   Feb-02-10 08:37 PM   #1 
  - Very true! But monthly trend are the deniers' crutch. If 2010 is undeniably...  joshcryer   Feb-03-10 12:07 AM   #2 
     - Ummmm  Nederland   Apr-03-10 12:05 AM   #36 
        - BS, many of them "question" the warming.  joshcryer   Apr-03-10 06:29 AM   #37 
        - Among honest people  Nederland   Apr-03-10 10:46 AM   #40 
           - There exist no credible reason for the cause other than AGW.  joshcryer   Apr-03-10 09:18 PM   #42 
              - I agree  Nederland   Apr-04-10 02:20 AM   #44 
                 - I've read the papers on the cloud models, I find nothing particularly bad about them.  joshcryer   Apr-04-10 08:44 AM   #47 
                    - Interesting  Nederland   Apr-04-10 11:46 PM   #49 
                    - Nonsense.  joshcryer   Apr-05-10 12:13 AM   #50 
                       - Am I?  Nederland   Apr-05-10 12:26 AM   #53 
                          - Their job is to project, I have no problem with their job.  joshcryer   Apr-05-10 12:30 AM   #54 
                             - What makes them impressive?  Nederland   Apr-05-10 12:47 AM   #57 
                                - The fact that they model clouds explicitly?  joshcryer   Apr-05-10 12:50 AM   #59 
                                   - I'm sure they do model clouds explicitly  Nederland   Apr-05-10 01:24 AM   #60 
                                      - I think it's important to know whether or not they make the best efforts that they can.  joshcryer   Apr-05-10 02:59 AM   #62 
                                         - And is that the only thing that's important?  Nederland   Apr-05-10 03:50 AM   #65 
                                         - The models *are* accurate, they're just imperfect.  joshcryer   Apr-05-10 07:06 PM   #66 
                                            - How do you know?  Nederland   Apr-06-10 09:38 AM   #68 
                                         - Explicity model in a whole Earth simulation?  DrGregory   Oct-03-10 11:19 AM   #144 
                    - Not what I've heard / read  DrGregory   Oct-03-10 11:09 AM   #143 
        - Maybe you hang with a better group of skeptics than I do.  beardown   Apr-03-10 10:17 AM   #38 
        - The "minimalist" skeptics will cite "unknowns" and then magically decide it's a lower bound.  joshcryer   Apr-03-10 09:21 PM   #43 
           - You are the one who is absurd  Nederland   Apr-04-10 02:34 AM   #45 
              - Uh, AGW has only been detectable from the noise for the last 15 fucking years.  joshcryer   Apr-04-10 08:34 AM   #46 
                 - I'm not asking about whether or not AGW is detectable  Nederland   Apr-04-10 05:08 PM   #48 
                    - You need a 30 year trend to be able to make a projection like that.  joshcryer   Apr-05-10 12:15 AM   #51 
                    - I guess I wasn't clear  Nederland   Apr-05-10 12:36 AM   #55 
                       - It is relatively flat until the 90s.  joshcryer   Apr-05-10 12:50 AM   #58 
                          - Here is the data  Nederland   Apr-05-10 01:38 AM   #61 
                             - Certainly not the last 5 years.  joshcryer   Apr-05-10 03:10 AM   #63 
                                - Incorrect  Nederland   Apr-05-10 03:47 AM   #64 
                                   - So that graph is taking a 20 year trend and extrapolating it by 100?  joshcryer   Apr-05-10 07:08 PM   #67 
                                      - No  Nederland   Apr-06-10 09:44 AM   #69 
                    - And something your 1.6C / century claim is neglecting is the fact that CO2 is increasing.  joshcryer   Apr-05-10 12:20 AM   #52 
                       - Yes, CO2 is increasing  Nederland   Apr-05-10 12:40 AM   #56 
        - Want to pick on somebody bigger than you?  kristopher   Oct-23-10 01:58 PM   #151 
  - Surely to god, you're  Bigmack   Feb-03-10 11:43 AM   #3 
  - Not at all! It's for my own amusement.  joshcryer   Feb-03-10 12:08 PM   #4 
     - If a tree falls in the forest  pscot   Feb-03-10 04:16 PM   #5 
  - Feb 7th makes this month still warmest on record:  joshcryer   Feb-08-10 10:32 PM   #6 
  - Feb 14th makes this month still warmest on record (despite record snows):  joshcryer   Feb-16-10 02:49 AM   #7 
  - Feb 21st makes this month still warmest on record:  joshcryer   Feb-22-10 06:57 PM   #8 
  - Feb. hottest month on satellite record.  joshcryer   Mar-01-10 07:17 PM   #9 
  - But... TEH SNOW!  Dead_Parrot   Mar-01-10 08:57 PM   #10 
     - Funny part? UAH doesn't measure high latitude temperatures.  joshcryer   Mar-01-10 10:53 PM   #11 
  - March 2nd makes this warmest month on record:  joshcryer   Mar-04-10 12:56 AM   #12 
  - March 7th makes this warmest month on record:  joshcryer   Mar-09-10 02:12 AM   #13 
  - If it's still up there in late April we are really screwed n/t  n2doc   Mar-09-10 09:56 AM   #14 
  - "we are really screwed"  guardian   Mar-09-10 11:39 AM   #15 
     - Here in SoCal I finally reached the point where I gave up altogether  kestrel91316   Mar-09-10 12:44 PM   #16 
     - If this trend continues then obviously the models were validated.  joshcryer   Mar-09-10 02:45 PM   #17 
        - And if the models are validated, then all the really bad predictions about AGW can't be ignored  NickB79   Mar-09-10 03:27 PM   #18 
           - Surely the end times are at hand.  guardian   Mar-09-10 03:44 PM   #19 
              - The worst predictions are "only" 3.0C.  joshcryer   Mar-09-10 04:19 PM   #20 
                 - Big whoop is right  guardian   Mar-09-10 05:38 PM   #21 
                    - What? You were the one saying the apocalypse was coming.  joshcryer   Mar-09-10 06:23 PM   #22 
                    - 1 - 2 meters is a boatload but it is currently rising by about a foot (31 cm)  The Croquist   Mar-09-10 07:27 PM   #23 
                       - Four things.  beardown   Apr-03-10 10:35 AM   #39 
  - delete  joshcryer   Mar-15-10 11:31 PM   #24 
  - March 14th makes this warmest month on record (wow):  joshcryer   Mar-15-10 11:32 PM   #25 
  - Wow, this really ought to be an interesting summer,  Systematic Chaos   Mar-16-10 04:07 PM   #26 
     - Yep, we can look forward to at least a thousand deaths in, say, Chicago and throughout EU.  joshcryer   Mar-16-10 05:04 PM   #27 
        - 56F high in Boulder today  guardian   Jun-13-10 02:35 PM   #102 
           - Fuck off.  joshcryer   Jun-14-10 01:51 AM   #103 
  - March 21st makes this warmest month on record (but it's cooling!)  joshcryer   Mar-23-10 12:44 AM   #28 
  - I won't be happy until that orange line goes as low or lower than the hot pink line...  Systematic Chaos   Mar-23-10 09:51 AM   #29 
  - FYI:  Viking12   Mar-23-10 10:06 AM   #30 
     - Yes but the overall trend cannot deviate much from the average.  joshcryer   Mar-23-10 10:31 PM   #31 
  - March 27th makes this warmest month on record (slight uptick).  joshcryer   Mar-29-10 05:23 AM   #32 
  - March was warmest month on satellite record:  joshcryer   Apr-02-10 02:19 PM   #33 
  - March, 2010 is to the rest of the satellite record...  Systematic Chaos   Apr-02-10 05:29 PM   #34 
     - Pretty much. This is going to be a tough year.  joshcryer   Apr-02-10 06:56 PM   #35 
  - April 1st makes this warmest month on record:  joshcryer   Apr-03-10 11:26 AM   #41 
  - April 7th makes this warmest month on record:  joshcryer   Apr-08-10 09:47 PM   #70 
  - Above the previous maximum for the past 4 months straight now  NickB79   Apr-08-10 10:32 PM   #71 
  - It's tighening a bit, but was expected. Should stay above the rest.  joshcryer   Apr-08-10 11:48 PM   #72 
     - The "tightening" has untightened. Your next post of the graph should reflect this.  Systematic Chaos   Apr-12-10 07:34 AM   #75 
  - The one thing I don't like about these graphs  OnlinePoker   Apr-09-10 08:27 AM   #73 
     - Yeah, it is a bit annoying.  joshcryer   Apr-11-10 10:20 PM   #74 
  - April 14th, cooler than 2005. 2nd warmest month on record. Damn volcanos.  joshcryer   Apr-16-10 12:11 PM   #76 
  - April 21st makes this warmest month on record (warm spike):  joshcryer   Apr-23-10 02:38 PM   #77 
  - I KNEW this was going to happen.  Systematic Chaos   Apr-23-10 06:16 PM   #78 
     - Yep, going to be an interesting summer.  joshcryer   Apr-25-10 08:10 PM   #79 
  - April 27st makes this warmest month on record (up up and away!):  joshcryer   Apr-29-10 06:21 AM   #80 
  - Looks like we'll break the record for a 12-month period that we set only last month.  Viking12   Apr-29-10 10:37 AM   #81 
     - Yeah, warmest first quarter in modern history, by all accounts.  joshcryer   Apr-30-10 12:42 AM   #82 
  - April was warmest month on record (by far):  joshcryer   May-02-10 04:25 PM   #83 
  - May 1st makes this warmest month on record (pop goes the weasel):  joshcryer   May-03-10 05:01 PM   #84 
  - May 7th makes this warmest month on record (summer beckons):  joshcryer   May-09-10 06:02 AM   #85 
  - It just won't give up, will it?  Systematic Chaos   May-10-10 04:23 PM   #86 
     - No sign of slowing down either.  joshcryer   May-10-10 11:40 PM   #87 
  - May 14th makes this warmest month on record (don't worry, we got it under control):  joshcryer   May-16-10 06:11 AM   #88 
  - May 21st makes this warmest month on record:  joshcryer   May-23-10 02:44 AM   #89 
  - So far that "prediction" line is holding pretty true.  Systematic Chaos   May-31-10 01:59 AM   #90 
     - Yep. :( Here's May 29th (forgot to update):  joshcryer   May-31-10 05:33 AM   #91 
     - Here's a gif animation (2 sec delay):  joshcryer   May-31-10 05:48 AM   #92 
  - May was warmest month on record (by far and away):  joshcryer   Jun-02-10 08:08 AM   #93 
  - June 1st makes this warmest month on record:  joshcryer   Jun-03-10 11:44 AM   #94 
  - The Orange Line of Terror (tm) is drawing a LITTLE closer to its brethren on the graph.  Systematic Chaos   Jun-07-10 03:44 AM   #95 
     - I think it's in for another spike.  joshcryer   Jun-08-10 11:52 AM   #96 
  - June 7th makes this warmest month on record:  joshcryer   Jun-08-10 08:30 PM   #97 
  - The numbers are somewhat deceiving  The Croquist   Jun-09-10 09:00 AM   #98 
     - Where are you getting your data?  joshcryer   Jun-09-10 01:39 PM   #99 
     - I found the source, you are correct.  joshcryer   Jun-09-10 01:46 PM   #100 
        - Sorry. I didn't mean to infer that you were deceiving  The Croquist   Jun-09-10 03:20 PM   #101 
        - delete  joshcryer   Sep-03-10 09:05 AM   #134 
  - delete  joshcryer   Jun-15-10 05:42 PM   #104 
  - This may become the 2nd thread that never dies  pscot   Jun-15-10 05:52 PM   #105 
  - Hehe, sorry for bumping it, I didn't realize they hadn't yet updated for the 14th.  joshcryer   Jun-15-10 05:54 PM   #106 
  - June 14th makes this warmest month this decade:  joshcryer   Jun-15-10 07:19 PM   #107 
  - Thank you.  The Croquist   Jun-24-10 09:12 AM   #110 
  - June 22nd makes this warmest month this decade:  joshcryer   Jun-24-10 02:01 AM   #108 
  - Congratulations, and thanks for the update  XemaSab   Jun-24-10 02:41 AM   #109 
  - June 28th makes this warmest month this decade:  joshcryer   Jun-30-10 02:36 AM   #111 
  - Not in the Pacific Northwest.  AtheistCrusader   Jul-01-10 01:34 AM   #112 
  - June was warmest month this decade:  joshcryer   Jul-02-10 05:24 AM   #113 
  - Looks like the line will have no problem staying above the blue outlier coming up.  Systematic Chaos   Jul-02-10 07:04 AM   #114 
  - That graph only shows 1998 data from August 1 onward  Viking12   Jul-02-10 07:17 AM   #115 
  - The unofficial UAH June number is +0.436 C.  The Croquist   Jul-06-10 06:26 AM   #116 
  - July 7th makes this warmest month this decade (but can we beat 2009?):  joshcryer   Jul-09-10 03:21 PM   #117 
  - July 14th makes this warmest month this decade (and yep, we might just beat 2009):  joshcryer   Jul-16-10 10:10 AM   #118 
  - With ease.  Systematic Chaos   Jul-17-10 07:33 AM   #119 
  - July 21st makes this warmest month this decade:  joshcryer   Jul-23-10 01:11 AM   #120 
  - July 28th makes this warmest month this decade:  joshcryer   Jul-30-10 02:09 PM   #121 
  - August 1st makes this warmest month this decade:  joshcryer   Aug-02-10 11:50 PM   #122 
  - Unofficial UAH July temperature:  The Croquist   Aug-03-10 09:53 AM   #123 
     - The gap closed from June to July by .029.  joshcryer   Aug-03-10 12:28 PM   #124 
  - August 7th makes this warmest month on record:  joshcryer   Aug-08-10 06:48 PM   #125 
  - 1998, 2009, 2010  joshcryer   Aug-08-10 06:51 PM   #126 
  - August 14th makes this warmest month on record:  joshcryer   Aug-15-10 10:41 PM   #127 
  - Update this week? nt  emmadoggy   Aug-24-10 12:19 AM   #128 
  - They were like 3 days behind with updating, but I guess they caught up, weird.  joshcryer   Aug-24-10 12:59 AM   #130 
  - August 22nd makes this warmest month on record:  joshcryer   Aug-24-10 12:58 AM   #129 
  - August 28th makes this warmest month on record (exciting!):  joshcryer   Aug-30-10 02:25 AM   #131 
  - It could be caused by the La Nina  The Croquist   Aug-30-10 06:40 AM   #132 
  - August 31st makes August warmest on record:  joshcryer   Sep-01-10 09:37 PM   #133 
  - September 1st makes this warmest month on record:  joshcryer   Sep-03-10 09:08 AM   #135 
  - Gap closed again by .02:  joshcryer   Sep-03-10 09:13 AM   #136 
  - September 7th makes this warmest month on record:  joshcryer   Sep-09-10 08:08 AM   #137 
  - September 14th makes this second warmest month on record (still warmer than 1998):  joshcryer   Sep-16-10 02:40 AM   #138 
  - But the gap between July and August did not close much at all:  joshcryer   Sep-16-10 02:56 AM   #139 
  - September 21st makes this second warmest month on record (still warmer than 1998):  joshcryer   Sep-22-10 08:23 PM   #140 
  - September 28th makes this warmest month on record:  joshcryer   Sep-30-10 03:43 AM   #141 
  - October 1st makes this warmest month on record:  joshcryer   Oct-02-10 08:37 PM   #142 
  - October 7st makes this warmest month on record:  joshcryer   Oct-08-10 07:19 PM   #145 
  - October 14th makes this warmest month on record:  joshcryer   Oct-16-10 12:05 AM   #146 
  - Even with last year, sorta-kinda, but CRUSHING 1998.  Systematic Chaos   Oct-16-10 12:58 AM   #147 
  - Thanks, that reminds me, Sept. temps should be on the ASMU site...  joshcryer   Oct-16-10 01:21 AM   #148 
  - August was 0.061, September was 0.038, the gap closed by 0.023 C.  joshcryer   Oct-16-10 01:34 AM   #149 
  - October 21st makes this warmest month on record:  joshcryer   Oct-22-10 08:19 PM   #150 
  - October 28th tied three months this past decade, warmer than 1998:  joshcryer   Oct-30-10 04:07 AM   #152 
  - Oct. was warmest month on record, Nov. looking to take over:  joshcryer   Nov-02-10 08:08 PM   #153 
  - 92 in L.A. tomorrow. In November.  wtmusic   Nov-02-10 09:30 PM   #154 
  - :(  joshcryer   Nov-03-10 07:26 PM   #159 
  - According to my calculations, an avg anomaly of 0.4 over OctNovDec would make 2010 warmer than 1998  Viking12   Nov-03-10 03:19 PM   #155 
     - Interesting.  joshcryer   Nov-03-10 07:26 PM   #157 
  - Mini heat wave in SoCal right now, 3 days of mid-to-upper 90's.......  kestrel91316   Nov-03-10 05:26 PM   #156 
  - I almost envy you. Where's our global warming in CO!  joshcryer   Nov-03-10 07:26 PM   #158 
  - I've noticed  Nihil   Nov-04-10 04:42 AM   #160 
  - extremely warm and dry up here in montana still!  meow mix   Nov-04-10 08:53 AM   #161 
  - Nov. 7th makes this warmest month on record (whoa):  joshcryer   Nov-09-10 12:24 AM   #162 
  - The gap between Sept. and Oct. did not close at all though.  joshcryer   Nov-11-10 09:19 PM   #163 
  - Just wait for the next solar maximum.  Systematic Chaos   Nov-14-10 07:49 AM   #164 
  - Nov. 14th makes this warmest month on record:  joshcryer   Nov-15-10 05:37 PM   #165 
  - Nov. 21st big drop:  joshcryer   Nov-22-10 08:59 PM   #166 
  - When you talk warmer than '98, do you mean the whole year?  OnlinePoker   Nov-23-10 08:03 PM   #167 
     - The graph doesn't have the full 1998 year.  joshcryer   Nov-23-10 08:59 PM   #168 
  - Nov. in top 5 warmest months on record, Dec. looking to keep the pace:  joshcryer   Dec-02-10 05:59 PM   #169 
  - Nov. 2010 UAH Global Temperature Update: +0.38 deg. C  joshcryer   Dec-05-10 06:03 AM   #170 
  - Dec 10:  joshcryer   Dec-11-10 09:15 PM   #171 
  - Dec. 14:  joshcryer   Dec-16-10 02:16 AM   #172 
  - Gap between Oct-Nov:  joshcryer   Dec-16-10 02:24 AM   #173 
     - New "Improved" UAH 30 year base numbers  The Croquist   Jan-07-11 11:05 AM   #178 
  - Heh, heh, remember kids, while it might be cold in your neighborhood, it ain't necessarily...  joshcryer   Dec-18-10 04:36 AM   #174 
  - Looks like 1998 will reign supreme... I'll update next year with a more comprehensive post.  joshcryer   Dec-30-10 06:33 PM   #175 
  - 2010: probably the hottest year ever recorded  Amonester   Dec-31-10 03:49 PM   #176 
  - If you're wondering why I haven't updated, the app is broken due to missing data.  joshcryer   Jan-05-11 05:00 PM   #177 
  - Nothing new, just bumping this to keep from falling into the archive. If they ever fix the site...  joshcryer   Feb-04-11 01:25 AM   #179 
     - It's been a year and two days since the posting of the thread  XemaSab   Feb-04-11 02:26 AM   #180 
     - Does this help?  XemaSab   Feb-04-11 06:18 AM   #181 
        - Heh.  joshcryer   Feb-04-11 04:22 PM   #182 
 

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