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Reply #14: Underestimation may be better described as overly tentative. [View All]

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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-30-09 02:26 PM
Response to Reply #7
14. Underestimation may be better described as overly tentative.
The scientific community can't quickly jump to conclusions, especially when we're talking about a situation as complex as this. It's unfortunate. I think IPCC should start doing annual, if not biannual reports rather than reports every 5 years.
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  -Potsdam Institute Study - Minimum Two-Meter Sea-Level Rise Now Almost Unstoppable - Reuters hatrack  Sep-30-09 12:22 PM   #0 
  - IOW, real estate that sits less than 5 ft above sea level is an exceptionally  kestrel91316   Sep-30-09 12:26 PM   #1 
  - Ummm.....a lot of my state.  Lochloosa   Sep-30-09 01:21 PM   #10 
     - Yep.  kestrel91316   Sep-30-09 01:47 PM   #11 
  - The picture just gets darker and darker, doesn't it? nt  GliderGuider   Sep-30-09 12:29 PM   #2 
  - Of course, I haven't been toiling here in order to audition for the role of Mr. Sunshine . . .  hatrack   Sep-30-09 12:43 PM   #5 
     - The way we've set things up, it's not "won't", but "can't".  GliderGuider   Sep-30-09 12:54 PM   #6 
        - As thunder rising said yesterday:  XemaSab   Sep-30-09 01:16 PM   #8 
        - Every other ecology finds balance  tinrobot   Sep-30-09 01:49 PM   #12 
           - Why do you think people are worried about swine flu and bird flu  RaleighNCDUer   Sep-30-09 03:48 PM   #21 
  - There surely are ways to reduce CO2  Richard D   Sep-30-09 12:38 PM   #3 
  - These are the kind of news stories that make me hope  bain_sidhe   Sep-30-09 12:40 PM   #4 
  - He's wrong.  RaleighNCDUer   Sep-30-09 12:56 PM   #7 
  - Underestimation may be better described as overly tentative.  joshcryer   Sep-30-09 02:26 PM   #14 
  - Except of course, when they overestimate things...  Nederland   Sep-30-09 02:34 PM   #15 
     - Personally, I think the jury is still out on the 2.5 temp rise. As your chart  RaleighNCDUer   Sep-30-09 03:01 PM   #17 
     - Methane only stays in the atmosphere for 7 years  Nederland   Sep-30-09 03:10 PM   #18 
        - Yes, but there are gigatons of methane locked away.  NickB79   Oct-02-09 04:17 AM   #49 
           - A local effect must be considered, too. It's one thing for it to be released in the tropics...  joshcryer   Oct-02-09 05:22 AM   #50 
     - Eh, why bother with peer-review when you can just turn to blog science?  Viking12   Sep-30-09 03:34 PM   #19 
     - Learn to read  Nederland   Sep-30-09 04:06 PM   #23 
        - Just read the fuckin blog post you link. Pielke admits he just made up numbers base on how he reads  Viking12   Sep-30-09 04:14 PM   #25 
        - I never posted a link to a blog post  Nederland   Sep-30-09 05:02 PM   #28 
           - Really? What's the origin of that graph in your post, #15?  Viking12   Sep-30-09 06:21 PM   #29 
              - If you have a problem with the graph...  Nederland   Sep-30-09 11:48 PM   #31 
                 - You're denying that graph comes from a blog?  Viking12   Oct-01-09 06:42 AM   #33 
                    - Finally  Nederland   Oct-01-09 08:15 AM   #34 
                       - Why should I waste my time on "blog science"?  Viking12   Oct-01-09 09:40 AM   #35 
                          - I don't know, but obviously you did  Nederland   Oct-01-09 12:21 PM   #36 
                             - So you finally admit you rely on "blog science"?  Viking12   Oct-01-09 02:51 PM   #37 
                                - I think his point is that it would have been simplier  kristopher   Oct-01-09 06:44 PM   #38 
                                   - He made his case in post #19.  joshcryer   Oct-01-09 07:00 PM   #40 
                                   - No he didn't Josh.  kristopher   Oct-01-09 07:14 PM   #41 
                                      - This is the exchange:  joshcryer   Oct-01-09 07:44 PM   #42 
                                         - You need to lay off the pot, dude.  kristopher   Oct-01-09 09:11 PM   #44 
                                            - The paper refutes the assertion that there is significant overestimation (on 20 y/o data).  joshcryer   Oct-01-09 10:07 PM   #45 
                                            - I never said he didn't have a bias.  kristopher   Oct-01-09 11:27 PM   #47 
                                            - To pretend that we do?  joshcryer   Oct-01-09 11:58 PM   #48 
                                   - I must have missed the acknowledgement that he was wrong in this case...  Viking12   Oct-02-09 06:27 AM   #51 
                                      - How did he "try to conceal the source of his graph"?  kristopher   Oct-02-09 11:37 AM   #52 
                                      - He repeatedly denied that the graph was from a blog.  Viking12   Oct-02-09 12:43 PM   #53 
                                         - I disagree.  kristopher   Oct-02-09 01:11 PM   #54 
                                            - Are you on crack?  Viking12   Oct-02-09 01:41 PM   #55 
                                            - That's lame  kristopher   Oct-02-09 02:19 PM   #56 
                                            - A tenured professor of POLITICAL science  Viking12   Oct-02-09 03:09 PM   #58 
                                            - Viking12, I've been quite enjoying the Yamal drama.  joshcryer   Oct-02-09 10:39 PM   #64 
                                            - No doubt we'll see that crap here eventually.  Viking12   Oct-03-09 08:43 AM   #65 
                                            - Perhaps I can help explain  Nederland   Oct-02-09 02:53 PM   #57 
                                            - So any old graph on the web is credible as long as it supports your position?  Viking12   Oct-02-09 03:10 PM   #59 
                                            - What are you, 12?  Nederland   Oct-02-09 03:55 PM   #60 
                                      - Readers: do yourself a favor and skip posts #52-60.  joshcryer   Oct-02-09 07:44 PM   #61 
                                         - That is a BIZARRE post...  kristopher   Oct-02-09 09:32 PM   #62 
                                            - Is it?  joshcryer   Oct-02-09 10:32 PM   #63 
        - The 1990 IPCC report, and indeed, reports going back as far as the 60s...  joshcryer   Oct-01-09 08:21 PM   #43 
     - That's because AR4 does *not* include any data on arctic/antarctic melting.  joshcryer   Sep-30-09 03:38 PM   #20 
        - Exactly. Someone high above Boulder doesn't know what he's talking about.  Viking12   Sep-30-09 04:01 PM   #22 
        - Question  Nederland   Sep-30-09 04:11 PM   #24 
           - Read this:  joshcryer   Sep-30-09 04:19 PM   #26 
              - Good article  Nederland   Sep-30-09 05:01 PM   #27 
                 - The article is talking about how they derive their estimations, written by the same guy.  joshcryer   Sep-30-09 06:48 PM   #30 
                 - Your 15 year old student doesn't seem brillant to me  Nederland   Oct-01-09 12:04 AM   #32 
                    - The radiative forcing of CO2 is a constant that can be determined in a lab.  joshcryer   Oct-01-09 06:52 PM   #39 
                 - Are you aware that summer melt over Greenland is increasing at around 40,000 km^2 a year?  joshcryer   Oct-01-09 10:24 PM   #46 
  - The corporate-capitalist mindless-consumer growth-oriented system  Ghost Dog   Sep-30-09 01:16 PM   #9 
     - Or at the very least  GliderGuider   Sep-30-09 01:51 PM   #13 
        - With love and compassion, naturally.  Ghost Dog   Sep-30-09 02:57 PM   #16 
 

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