Reply #28: How long is "long" and how high is "high"?

[GliderGuider]

If the short-term inelasticity of supply drives the price to $300/bbl in the next ten years, the time frame for substitution before the rest of the economy grinds to a halt might be only half that. Given that the price of oil went up 500% in 4 1/2 years from 2003 to 2008, such a rise has already been demonstrated possible.

In order to say that successful substitution is probable, one would have to say that such a scenario is improbable. Given that it's happened once already, how improbable is it really?