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Reply #110: The United States alone consumes over 20 million barrels oil per day... [View All]

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hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #109
110. The United States alone consumes over 20 million barrels oil per day...
The numbers in the Wall Street Journal article need to be placed in the context of that consumption.

That 155,000 bpd from Canada and the 500,000 bpd from Venezuala would be 3.275% of United States consumption. Of course, the United States is not the only nation consuming oil.

Furthermore, this oil is not the same sort of light oil you could get out of many Saudi wells for $8.00 a gallon. Instead it is a very heavy oil that requires quite a bit more energy to extract and refine than light oil. Much of this energy is currently supplied by natural gas.

Thus there are some serious EROEI issues here. If inexpensive natural gas is not available for processing this oil, and the cost of maintaining extraction machinery increases, the low EROEI of this sort of "oil mining" becomes much more apparent. Worse, if natural gas or nuclear power are not used in the extraction process, the overall carbon dioxide emmisions per barrel of refined product skyrockets.

From an environmental standpoint you might be much better off using the natural gas directly as a feedstock for synthetic fuels.

The Wall Street Journal article you've cited is a perfect example of the stupid "buy-yourself-an-MBA" mentality that is destroying the United States economy. Clever little monkeys learn how to make Excel spreadsheet models full of imaginary constants, and then they use these simplistic models to support their economic fantasies.

"And with technology already well in hand, the cost of sucking oil out of the planet we occupy simply will not rise above roughly $30 per barrel for the next 100 years at least."

To see what an absurd statement that is you might want to calculate the actual cost of every barrel of Iraqi oil now sold on the world market. Don't forget to add in all the lives lost "securing" this oil.

I have some experience making real scientific and economic models. One of the things you quickly learn is that there are very few constants in any good model, and that you must often apologize for many of the constants you do put in a model. To a certain extent the less computing power you have, the more constants you must use in your models.

It's my opinion that anyone who claims we have a hundred year supply of $30 per barrel oil is insane. This could only happen if we had a severe global economic "depression" of the sort that would doom billions of people to starvation.

It is much more likely we will survive this mess by inflation, and that the oil remaining on earth will become too expensive to use for simple joyriding.

Two variables I would watch in this economy are the number of United States citizens vacationing in Europe, and the number of big SUV's that are sold.

We live in very interesting times.
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  -So, how much stock do you put in the most "pessimistic" peak oil theories? Harvey Korman  Jan-18-05 07:39 PM   #0 
  - Dr Ken Defeyes who accurately called the shortage of the 70's  nothingshocksmeanymore   Jan-18-05 07:48 PM   #1 
  - Thanks for pointing out an important clarification.  Harvey Korman   Jan-18-05 07:56 PM   #4 
  - There was a really great article in The American Prospect  nothingshocksmeanymore   Jan-18-05 08:04 PM   #7 
  - I think it was M. King Hubbert who made the prediction . . .  hatrack   Jan-18-05 08:40 PM   #10 
     - I bow to your expertise  nothingshocksmeanymore   Jan-18-05 09:16 PM   #17 
     - I don't know if reading a lot constitutes "expertise" . . .  hatrack   Jan-18-05 09:23 PM   #18 
        - If it weren't for your persistence, I'd know a hell of a lot less  nothingshocksmeanymore   Jan-18-05 09:26 PM   #19 
     - I heard that Valerie Plame was really deep undercover with an ear to the  bunny planet   Jan-24-05 04:00 PM   #69 
        - No, Bush does NOT read policy papers.  happyslug   Jan-26-05 07:05 PM   #101 
  - Peak oil will occur in 2006 (for conventional oil)  BlueEyedSon   Jan-18-05 07:50 PM   #2 
  - Thanks for the group link.  Harvey Korman   Jan-18-05 07:58 PM   #5 
  - crop-growing arrangements?  SlavesandBulldozers   Jan-18-05 07:51 PM   #3 
  - I haven't seen them espoused here.  Harvey Korman   Jan-18-05 08:01 PM   #6 
  - According to "Crossing the Rubicon" we've only got 35 more years  EVDebs   Jan-18-05 08:19 PM   #8 
  - We have lots of oil in the world  Maple   Jan-18-05 08:34 PM   #9 
  - I understand that we're not talking about exhaustion of supply.  Harvey Korman   Jan-18-05 09:04 PM   #13 
  - the ability to switch to another 'renewable' energy source would involve  bunny planet   Jan-24-05 04:26 PM   #70 
  - Not Much  AndyTiedye   Jan-18-05 08:40 PM   #11 
  - "...only makes it easier for the PNACers to justify their crusade."  Harvey Korman   Jan-18-05 09:10 PM   #15 
  - When supply outstrips demand-  Old and In the Way   Jan-18-05 08:46 PM   #12 
  - Canada...  chrisbur   Jan-18-05 09:07 PM   #14 
  - Hah! You're not, I read that too...oil sands. n/t  Harvey Korman   Jan-18-05 09:11 PM   #16 
  - It's not just expensive financially - it's expensive thermodynamically  hatrack   Jan-18-05 09:31 PM   #20 
  - So...essentially it's a house of cards--  Harvey Korman   Jan-18-05 09:51 PM   # 
  - Hmm. Like I said, ass talking.  chrisbur   Jan-18-05 09:51 PM   #22 
  - you're right but it is very sad  amazona   Jan-18-05 10:04 PM   #24 
  - None  RafterMan   Jan-18-05 09:34 PM   #21 
  - I put about zero stock in it  amazona   Jan-18-05 10:01 PM   #23 
  - Who needs to be "pessimistic"? Look what has ALREADY happened:  BlueEyedSon   Jan-19-05 06:23 AM   #25 
  - I myself am looking forward to the twenty hour work week.  hunter   Jan-19-05 02:17 PM   #26 
  - You raise some good points...  Harvey Korman   Jan-19-05 02:56 PM   #27 
  - Or Brin's "The Postman"  loindelrio   Jan-19-05 08:12 PM   #28 
  - Peak Oil Will Signal The End Of Exponential Growth In Energy Supplies  loindelrio   Jan-19-05 08:59 PM   #29 
  - "...the U.S. could manage the Powerdown with a minimum of trauma"  Harvey Korman   Jan-20-05 12:03 AM   #30 
  - I Guess It Depends On One's Definition Of 'Minimum of Trauma'  loindelrio   Jan-20-05 10:56 PM   #40 
  - no powerdown is needed  rfkrfk   Jan-20-05 02:12 AM   #31 
  - Right, coal is an inexhaustible resource and non-polluting too.  BlueEyedSon   Jan-20-05 08:42 AM   #32 
  - Not exactly  rfkrfk   Jan-21-05 12:34 AM   #43 
  - Methanol is a terrible fuel for general use.  hunter   Jan-20-05 12:04 PM   #33 
  - "...a crack addict digging through the shag carpet"  Harvey Korman   Jan-20-05 03:15 PM   #37 
  - LOL your crack addict comparison. so true. If it wasn't so sad and scary  bunny planet   Jan-24-05 08:00 PM   #74 
  - That IS one beautiful image about the crack addict. On DME,  NNadir   Jan-27-05 09:00 PM   #106 
  - I Do Not See How This Can Keep Up With The Rate Of Oil Depletion  loindelrio   Jan-20-05 10:37 PM   #39 
  - EROEI - Energy Return on Energy Investment  hunter   Jan-21-05 01:48 AM   #44 
  - you must be talking about that 'clean-coal' technology  bunny planet   Jan-24-05 07:54 PM   #73 
     - in most countries, 'clean' won't be an issue  rfkrfk   Jan-27-05 06:40 AM   #103 
  - The problem is not only the end of cheap oil, it is that coupled with the  bunny planet   Jan-24-05 07:48 PM   #71 
  - Won't the military industrial complex be running on empty soon too.  bunny planet   Jan-24-05 07:52 PM   #72 
  - The issue is who do you want to believe.  happyslug   Jan-20-05 12:50 PM   #34 
  - How much is your house worth?  hunter   Jan-20-05 01:35 PM   #35 
  - I agree, that is why I lean to the 2004 date.  happyslug   Jan-20-05 02:13 PM   #36 
  - Thanks for the summary HappySlug  Nihil   Jan-21-05 05:22 AM   #45 
  - our civilization  zonmoy   Jan-20-05 04:18 PM   #38 
  - Speaking of cold fusion...  Harvey Korman   Jan-20-05 11:26 PM   #41 
     - Harvey -- I'm Posting The Book Forward By Arthur C. Clark  Tace   Jan-21-05 12:18 AM   #42 
  - The problem is can the world environmentally survive oil's replacement.  NNadir   Jan-21-05 06:45 AM   #46 
  - I've seen other estimates of nuclear fuel availability  RafterMan   Jan-21-05 10:22 AM   #47 
     - Yes, but...  Harvey Korman   Jan-21-05 03:25 PM   #48 
     - Not so  RafterMan   Jan-21-05 08:39 PM   #49 
        - I didn't mean to imply...  Harvey Korman   Jan-21-05 09:43 PM   #51 
        - According to RAW Bush supports Nuclear Power...  sorechasm   Jan-22-05 10:20 AM   #52 
           - Bush does NOT support nuclear power.  NNadir   Jan-25-05 09:58 PM   #84 
        - Maybe somewhere else. Not here.  NNadir   Jan-23-05 09:16 PM   #59 
           - Heh  RafterMan   Jan-23-05 11:00 PM   #63 
           - "The Right Spent Decades Ignoring . . . The Left Rejects Any Role . .. "  loindelrio   Jan-29-05 12:57 PM   #114 
              - I really have had a hard time understanding leftist disdain for nuclear  NNadir   Jan-29-05 04:47 PM   #115 
                 - Many promoters of Nuclear Power in the 70's were the worst sort of LIARS.  hunter   Jan-29-05 11:42 PM   #116 
                    - This was certainly true in some cases.  NNadir   Jan-30-05 07:25 AM   #117 
     - The article you link to is really old information.  GumboYaYa   Jan-25-05 03:06 PM   #80 
        - Nope  RafterMan   Jan-26-05 01:35 AM   #94 
           - I admit that I do not know much about Uranium 235 versus 238  GumboYaYa   Jan-26-05 09:29 AM   #95 
           - Sure  RafterMan   Jan-26-05 11:11 AM   #97 
              - I hear what you are saying from a technological and scientific  GumboYaYa   Jan-26-05 11:46 AM   #98 
           - Agreeing that nuclear is best, then let's calculate it the energy value  NNadir   Jan-26-05 11:06 AM   #96 
              - Even if Cohen is off by a factor of 10,000  RafterMan   Jan-26-05 12:46 PM   #99 
                 - Well in any case, as you've correctly noted, fuel, is not the problem.  NNadir   Jan-26-05 02:55 PM   #100 
  - Not much....  ChemEng   Jan-21-05 08:48 PM   #50 
  - I'm fairly pessimistic.  brokensymmetry   Jan-22-05 11:19 PM   #53 
  - Some MAJOR considerations  Pigwidgeon   Jan-23-05 06:40 AM   #54 
  - Hold on there  RafterMan   Jan-23-05 12:44 PM   #55 
     - As long as we have energy...  brokensymmetry   Jan-23-05 03:25 PM   #56 
        - NUKE PLANTS?  BeFree   Jan-23-05 04:25 PM   #57 
           - Actually, I agree with you.  brokensymmetry   Jan-23-05 08:14 PM   #58 
           - Uranium from sea water  RafterMan   Jan-23-05 10:32 PM   #62 
              - Forgot to add  RafterMan   Jan-27-05 05:56 AM   #102 
           - As the United States Circles the Drain...  hunter   Jan-23-05 09:48 PM   #60 
           - For What We Are Spending On Iraq/Defense, We Could Get A Good Head Start  loindelrio   Jan-23-05 11:51 PM   #64 
           - Nuclear plants are a fantasy?  RafterMan   Jan-23-05 09:53 PM   #61 
              - It's fantasy because French Electrons are girly-men...  hunter   Jan-24-05 03:41 AM   #65 
                 - I had a dream like that  BeFree   Jan-24-05 08:55 AM   #66 
                 - "Decentralized, locally controllable,  RafterMan   Jan-24-05 09:13 AM   #67 
                 - Such as?  BeFree   Jan-24-05 09:58 AM   #68 
                    - I just read today about a town in NJ, Tom's River that has converted all  bunny planet   Jan-24-05 08:33 PM   #76 
                    - Sounds wonderful for powering a suburb  NickB79   Jan-25-05 05:09 PM   #81 
                 - Definitely some dreaming going on here. There are 439 operating  NNadir   Jan-24-05 09:19 PM   #77 
                    - Gee, Nadir  BeFree   Jan-25-05 07:57 AM   #78 
                    - If I may  NickB79   Jan-25-05 05:13 PM   #82 
                    - Cool. Call me a "fart smeller." (Mods: Please do not remove.)  NNadir   Jan-25-05 09:27 PM   #83 
                       - Good lord man  BeFree   Jan-25-05 10:51 PM   #85 
                          - I have no sense of humor when it comes to destroying the future in  NNadir   Jan-25-05 11:17 PM   #86 
                          - Hey don't take it so hard  BeFree   Jan-25-05 11:35 PM   #88 
                             - Yet in the first world  RafterMan   Jan-26-05 12:51 AM   #92 
                          - Yep, we'll get along just fine without nukes 50-75 yrs from now  NickB79   Jan-26-05 12:42 AM   #91 
                    - God damn, that's scary  BeFree   Jan-25-05 11:18 PM   #87 
                       - Sorry, but your fantasies and your "I'll bets" are not good enough.  NNadir   Jan-25-05 11:52 PM   #89 
                          - Why aren't you working for the DOE?  BeFree   Jan-26-05 12:03 AM   #90 
                             - Most of them know the "solution" on which they are working is political  NNadir   Jan-26-05 12:54 AM   #93 
                 - Funny stuff. Thanks for the laugh, this thread was a downer until you came  bunny planet   Jan-24-05 08:29 PM   #75 
                    - Thanks.  hunter   Jan-25-05 01:53 PM   #79 
                       - Excellent post  Nihil   Jan-27-05 07:22 AM   #104 
                       - The worst kind of stupid, the evil, greedy and dangerous kind.  bunny planet   Jan-27-05 11:10 AM   #105 
  - "Oil, Oil, Everywhere..." article in the Wall Street Journal  ROH   Jan-27-05 10:46 PM   #107 
  - The Oil Matrix  Pigwidgeon   Jan-28-05 03:26 AM   #108 
  - Here is a reference to the Wall Street Journal Article:  ROH   Jan-28-05 09:30 AM   #109 
     - The United States alone consumes over 20 million barrels oil per day...  hunter   Jan-28-05 11:33 AM   #110 
     - What's really happening here?  Pigwidgeon   Jan-28-05 06:08 PM   #112 
        - Thank you for the replies  ROH   Jan-29-05 12:29 AM   #113 
           - It's a question for anyone (particularly NNadir) who can answer, please...  ROH   Jan-30-05 10:28 AM   #118 
              - I am not an expert on tar sands. The question of tar sands is best  NNadir   Jan-30-05 11:18 AM   #119 
                 - My Understanding of the Situation  ROH   Jan-30-05 04:48 PM   #120 
                    - Tar Sands Do Not Appear To Be A Viable Energy Source  loindelrio   Jan-30-05 05:49 PM   #121 
                    - Thank you for your comments...  ROH   Jan-30-05 09:25 PM   #123 
                       - It Depends On Your Definition Of Required Total Amounts  loindelrio   Jan-31-05 03:57 PM   #126 
                          - Switchgrass seems like a very useful biomass source.  ROH   Jan-31-05 05:00 PM   #127 
                          - I Would Anticipate Switchgrass Would Be Grown On The High Plains  loindelrio   Jan-31-05 05:57 PM   #128 
                          - I regard biofuels as palliative at the most extreme best.  NNadir   Jan-31-05 09:13 PM   #129 
                    - This presentation by fusion researchers show why fusion is unworkable  NNadir   Jan-30-05 07:01 PM   #122 
                       - Thank you for your reply and the link to the presentation regarding fusion  ROH   Jan-30-05 09:32 PM   #124 
                       - Your comments on ITER, please?  ROH   Feb-01-05 08:42 PM   #130 
                          - I generally support all non fossil energy research but  NNadir   Feb-02-05 05:44 AM   #131 
                             - The deadly Time Lag  Pigwidgeon   Feb-04-05 10:21 AM   #134 
                                - There are several issues here, economic, technical, and environmental.  NNadir   Feb-05-05 12:01 AM   #136 
  - Journalists Do Not Understand The Fact That Energy Cannot Be Created  loindelrio   Jan-28-05 02:36 PM   #111 
     - Yes, I think their claim was...  ROH   Jan-30-05 09:49 PM   #125 
     - Has anyone considered whether thermal depolymerization (TDP)  amandabeech   Feb-04-05 10:54 PM   #135 
  - Royal Dutch Shell (RD) becomes one of the biggest oils again  jmcgowanjm   Feb-03-05 08:22 PM   #132 
     - Oops-in post above 168 days should read 16.8 days-thanx  jmcgowanjm   Feb-04-05 08:40 AM   #133 
 

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