Strelnikov_
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Thu Jan-20-05 10:56 PM
Response to Reply #30 |
| 40. I Guess It Depends On One's Definition Of 'Minimum of Trauma' |
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Minimum of Trauma – Less than 5% die off due to energy depletion. Civilization like Frederik Pohl’s 'Gateway' or Harry Harrison’s ‘Skyfall’ (a few rich, most of the rest barely hanging in, like one big Mexico).
Moderate Trauma - 5% / 20% die off. Civilization like Harry Harrison’s ‘Make Room, Make Room’ (Solyent Green).
Extreme Trauma – 50% / 90% die off. Civilization like David Brin’s ‘Postman’ (neo-feudalism following general societal breakdown from limited World resource war).
Maximum Trauma – 100 % dust in the wind. Civilization ends like in Nevil Shute’s ‘On The Beach’.
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| -So, how much stock do you put in the most "pessimistic" peak oil theories? |
Harvey Korman |
Jan-18-05 07:39 PM |
#0 |
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Dr Ken Defeyes who accurately called the shortage of the 70's |
nothingshocksmeanymore |
Jan-18-05 07:48 PM |
#1 |
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Thanks for pointing out an important clarification. |
Harvey Korman |
Jan-18-05 07:56 PM |
#4 |
  -
There was a really great article in The American Prospect |
nothingshocksmeanymore |
Jan-18-05 08:04 PM |
#7 |
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I think it was M. King Hubbert who made the prediction . . . |
hatrack |
Jan-18-05 08:40 PM |
#10 |
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I bow to your expertise |
nothingshocksmeanymore |
Jan-18-05 09:16 PM |
#17 |
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I don't know if reading a lot constitutes "expertise" . . . |
hatrack |
Jan-18-05 09:23 PM |
#18 |
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If it weren't for your persistence, I'd know a hell of a lot less |
nothingshocksmeanymore |
Jan-18-05 09:26 PM |
#19 |
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I heard that Valerie Plame was really deep undercover with an ear to the |
bunny planet |
Jan-24-05 04:00 PM |
#69 |
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No, Bush does NOT read policy papers. |
happyslug |
Jan-26-05 07:05 PM |
#101 |
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Peak oil will occur in 2006 (for conventional oil) |
BlueEyedSon |
Jan-18-05 07:50 PM |
#2 |
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Thanks for the group link. |
Harvey Korman |
Jan-18-05 07:58 PM |
#5 |
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crop-growing arrangements? |
SlavesandBulldozers |
Jan-18-05 07:51 PM |
#3 |
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I haven't seen them espoused here. |
Harvey Korman |
Jan-18-05 08:01 PM |
#6 |
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According to "Crossing the Rubicon" we've only got 35 more years |
EVDebs |
Jan-18-05 08:19 PM |
#8 |
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We have lots of oil in the world |
Maple |
Jan-18-05 08:34 PM |
#9 |
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I understand that we're not talking about exhaustion of supply. |
Harvey Korman |
Jan-18-05 09:04 PM |
#13 |
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the ability to switch to another 'renewable' energy source would involve |
bunny planet |
Jan-24-05 04:26 PM |
#70 |
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Not Much |
AndyTiedye |
Jan-18-05 08:40 PM |
#11 |
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"...only makes it easier for the PNACers to justify their crusade."
|
Harvey Korman |
Jan-18-05 09:10 PM |
#15 |
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When supply outstrips demand- |
Old and In the Way |
Jan-18-05 08:46 PM |
#12 |
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Canada... |
chrisbur |
Jan-18-05 09:07 PM |
#14 |
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Hah! You're not, I read that too...oil sands. n/t |
Harvey Korman |
Jan-18-05 09:11 PM |
#16 |
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It's not just expensive financially - it's expensive thermodynamically |
hatrack |
Jan-18-05 09:31 PM |
#20 |
  -
So...essentially it's a house of cards-- |
Harvey Korman |
Jan-18-05 09:51 PM |
# |
  -
Hmm. Like I said, ass talking. |
chrisbur |
Jan-18-05 09:51 PM |
#22 |
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you're right but it is very sad |
amazona |
Jan-18-05 10:04 PM |
#24 |
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None |
RafterMan |
Jan-18-05 09:34 PM |
#21 |
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I put about zero stock in it |
amazona |
Jan-18-05 10:01 PM |
#23 |
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Who needs to be "pessimistic"? Look what has ALREADY happened: |
BlueEyedSon |
Jan-19-05 06:23 AM |
#25 |
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I myself am looking forward to the twenty hour work week. |
hunter |
Jan-19-05 02:17 PM |
#26 |
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You raise some good points... |
Harvey Korman |
Jan-19-05 02:56 PM |
#27 |
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Or Brin's "The Postman" |
loindelrio |
Jan-19-05 08:12 PM |
#28 |
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Peak Oil Will Signal The End Of Exponential Growth In Energy Supplies |
loindelrio |
Jan-19-05 08:59 PM |
#29 |
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"...the U.S. could manage the ‘Powerdown’ with a minimum of trauma" |
Harvey Korman |
Jan-20-05 12:03 AM |
#30 |
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I Guess It Depends On One's Definition Of 'Minimum of Trauma' |
loindelrio |
Jan-20-05 10:56 PM |
#40 |
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no powerdown is needed |
rfkrfk |
Jan-20-05 02:12 AM |
#31 |
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Right, coal is an inexhaustible resource and non-polluting too. |
BlueEyedSon |
Jan-20-05 08:42 AM |
#32 |
   -
Not exactly |
rfkrfk |
Jan-21-05 12:34 AM |
#43 |
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Methanol is a terrible fuel for general use. |
hunter |
Jan-20-05 12:04 PM |
#33 |
   -
"...a crack addict digging through the shag carpet" |
Harvey Korman |
Jan-20-05 03:15 PM |
#37 |
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LOL your crack addict comparison. so true. If it wasn't so sad and scary |
bunny planet |
Jan-24-05 08:00 PM |
#74 |
   -
That IS one beautiful image about the crack addict. On DME, |
NNadir |
Jan-27-05 09:00 PM |
#106 |
  -
I Do Not See How This Can Keep Up With The Rate Of Oil Depletion |
loindelrio |
Jan-20-05 10:37 PM |
#39 |
   -
EROEI - Energy Return on Energy Investment |
hunter |
Jan-21-05 01:48 AM |
#44 |
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you must be talking about that 'clean-coal' technology |
bunny planet |
Jan-24-05 07:54 PM |
#73 |
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in most countries, 'clean' won't be an issue |
rfkrfk |
Jan-27-05 06:40 AM |
#103 |
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The problem is not only the end of cheap oil, it is that coupled with the |
bunny planet |
Jan-24-05 07:48 PM |
#71 |
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Won't the military industrial complex be running on empty soon too. |
bunny planet |
Jan-24-05 07:52 PM |
#72 |
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The issue is who do you want to believe. |
happyslug |
Jan-20-05 12:50 PM |
#34 |
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How much is your house worth? |
hunter |
Jan-20-05 01:35 PM |
#35 |
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I agree, that is why I lean to the 2004 date. |
happyslug |
Jan-20-05 02:13 PM |
#36 |
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Thanks for the summary HappySlug |
Nihil |
Jan-21-05 05:22 AM |
#45 |
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our civilization |
zonmoy |
Jan-20-05 04:18 PM |
#38 |
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Speaking of cold fusion... |
Harvey Korman |
Jan-20-05 11:26 PM |
#41 |
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Harvey -- I'm Posting The Book Forward By Arthur C. Clark |
Tace |
Jan-21-05 12:18 AM |
#42 |
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The problem is can the world environmentally survive oil's replacement. |
NNadir |
Jan-21-05 06:45 AM |
#46 |
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I've seen other estimates of nuclear fuel availability |
RafterMan |
Jan-21-05 10:22 AM |
#47 |
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Yes, but... |
Harvey Korman |
Jan-21-05 03:25 PM |
#48 |
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Not so |
RafterMan |
Jan-21-05 08:39 PM |
#49 |
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I didn't mean to imply... |
Harvey Korman |
Jan-21-05 09:43 PM |
#51 |
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According to RAW Bush supports Nuclear Power... |
sorechasm |
Jan-22-05 10:20 AM |
#52 |
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Bush does NOT support nuclear power. |
NNadir |
Jan-25-05 09:58 PM |
#84 |
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Maybe somewhere else. Not here. |
NNadir |
Jan-23-05 09:16 PM |
#59 |
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Heh |
RafterMan |
Jan-23-05 11:00 PM |
#63 |
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"The Right Spent Decades Ignoring . . . The Left Rejects Any Role . .. " |
loindelrio |
Jan-29-05 12:57 PM |
#114 |
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I really have had a hard time understanding leftist disdain for nuclear |
NNadir |
Jan-29-05 04:47 PM |
#115 |
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Many promoters of Nuclear Power in the 70's were the worst sort of LIARS. |
hunter |
Jan-29-05 11:42 PM |
#116 |
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This was certainly true in some cases. |
NNadir |
Jan-30-05 07:25 AM |
#117 |
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The article you link to is really old information. |
GumboYaYa |
Jan-25-05 03:06 PM |
#80 |
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Nope |
RafterMan |
Jan-26-05 01:35 AM |
#94 |
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I admit that I do not know much about Uranium 235 versus 238 |
GumboYaYa |
Jan-26-05 09:29 AM |
#95 |
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Sure |
RafterMan |
Jan-26-05 11:11 AM |
#97 |
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I hear what you are saying from a technological and scientific |
GumboYaYa |
Jan-26-05 11:46 AM |
#98 |
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Agreeing that nuclear is best, then let's calculate it the energy value |
NNadir |
Jan-26-05 11:06 AM |
#96 |
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Even if Cohen is off by a factor of 10,000 |
RafterMan |
Jan-26-05 12:46 PM |
#99 |
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Well in any case, as you've correctly noted, fuel, is not the problem. |
NNadir |
Jan-26-05 02:55 PM |
#100 |
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Not much.... |
ChemEng |
Jan-21-05 08:48 PM |
#50 |
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I'm fairly pessimistic. |
brokensymmetry |
Jan-22-05 11:19 PM |
#53 |
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Some MAJOR considerations |
Pigwidgeon |
Jan-23-05 06:40 AM |
#54 |
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Hold on there |
RafterMan |
Jan-23-05 12:44 PM |
#55 |
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As long as we have energy... |
brokensymmetry |
Jan-23-05 03:25 PM |
#56 |
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NUKE PLANTS? |
BeFree |
Jan-23-05 04:25 PM |
#57 |
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Actually, I agree with you. |
brokensymmetry |
Jan-23-05 08:14 PM |
#58 |
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Uranium from sea water |
RafterMan |
Jan-23-05 10:32 PM |
#62 |
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Forgot to add |
RafterMan |
Jan-27-05 05:56 AM |
#102 |
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As the United States Circles the Drain... |
hunter |
Jan-23-05 09:48 PM |
#60 |
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For What We Are Spending On Iraq/Defense, We Could Get A Good Head Start |
loindelrio |
Jan-23-05 11:51 PM |
#64 |
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Nuclear plants are a fantasy? |
RafterMan |
Jan-23-05 09:53 PM |
#61 |
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It's fantasy because French Electrons are girly-men... |
hunter |
Jan-24-05 03:41 AM |
#65 |
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I had a dream like that |
BeFree |
Jan-24-05 08:55 AM |
#66 |
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"Decentralized, locally controllable, |
RafterMan |
Jan-24-05 09:13 AM |
#67 |
  -
Such as? |
BeFree |
Jan-24-05 09:58 AM |
#68 |
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I just read today about a town in NJ, Tom's River that has converted all |
bunny planet |
Jan-24-05 08:33 PM |
#76 |
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Sounds wonderful for powering a suburb |
NickB79 |
Jan-25-05 05:09 PM |
#81 |
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Definitely some dreaming going on here. There are 439 operating |
NNadir |
Jan-24-05 09:19 PM |
#77 |
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Gee, Nadir |
BeFree |
Jan-25-05 07:57 AM |
#78 |
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If I may |
NickB79 |
Jan-25-05 05:13 PM |
#82 |
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Cool. Call me a "fart smeller." (Mods: Please do not remove.) |
NNadir |
Jan-25-05 09:27 PM |
#83 |
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Good lord man |
BeFree |
Jan-25-05 10:51 PM |
#85 |
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I have no sense of humor when it comes to destroying the future in |
NNadir |
Jan-25-05 11:17 PM |
#86 |
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Hey don't take it so hard |
BeFree |
Jan-25-05 11:35 PM |
#88 |
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Yet in the first world |
RafterMan |
Jan-26-05 12:51 AM |
#92 |
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Yep, we'll get along just fine without nukes 50-75 yrs from now |
NickB79 |
Jan-26-05 12:42 AM |
#91 |
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God damn, that's scary |
BeFree |
Jan-25-05 11:18 PM |
#87 |
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Sorry, but your fantasies and your "I'll bets" are not good enough. |
NNadir |
Jan-25-05 11:52 PM |
#89 |
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Why aren't you working for the DOE? |
BeFree |
Jan-26-05 12:03 AM |
#90 |
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Most of them know the "solution" on which they are working is political |
NNadir |
Jan-26-05 12:54 AM |
#93 |
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Funny stuff. Thanks for the laugh, this thread was a downer until you came |
bunny planet |
Jan-24-05 08:29 PM |
#75 |
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Thanks. |
hunter |
Jan-25-05 01:53 PM |
#79 |
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Excellent post |
Nihil |
Jan-27-05 07:22 AM |
#104 |
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The worst kind of stupid, the evil, greedy and dangerous kind. |
bunny planet |
Jan-27-05 11:10 AM |
#105 |
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"Oil, Oil, Everywhere..." article in the Wall Street Journal |
ROH |
Jan-27-05 10:46 PM |
#107 |
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The Oil Matrix |
Pigwidgeon |
Jan-28-05 03:26 AM |
#108 |
  -
Here is a reference to the Wall Street Journal Article: |
ROH |
Jan-28-05 09:30 AM |
#109 |
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The United States alone consumes over 20 million barrels oil per day... |
hunter |
Jan-28-05 11:33 AM |
#110 |
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What's really happening here? |
Pigwidgeon |
Jan-28-05 06:08 PM |
#112 |
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Thank you for the replies |
ROH |
Jan-29-05 12:29 AM |
#113 |
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It's a question for anyone (particularly NNadir) who can answer, please... |
ROH |
Jan-30-05 10:28 AM |
#118 |
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I am not an expert on tar sands. The question of tar sands is best |
NNadir |
Jan-30-05 11:18 AM |
#119 |
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My Understanding of the Situation |
ROH |
Jan-30-05 04:48 PM |
#120 |
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Tar Sands Do Not Appear To Be A Viable Energy Source |
loindelrio |
Jan-30-05 05:49 PM |
#121 |
  -
Thank you for your comments... |
ROH |
Jan-30-05 09:25 PM |
#123 |
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It Depends On Your Definition Of Required Total Amounts |
loindelrio |
Jan-31-05 03:57 PM |
#126 |
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Switchgrass seems like a very useful biomass source. |
ROH |
Jan-31-05 05:00 PM |
#127 |
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I Would Anticipate Switchgrass Would Be Grown On The High Plains |
loindelrio |
Jan-31-05 05:57 PM |
#128 |
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I regard biofuels as palliative at the most extreme best. |
NNadir |
Jan-31-05 09:13 PM |
#129 |
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This presentation by fusion researchers show why fusion is unworkable |
NNadir |
Jan-30-05 07:01 PM |
#122 |
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Thank you for your reply and the link to the presentation regarding fusion |
ROH |
Jan-30-05 09:32 PM |
#124 |
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Your comments on ITER, please? |
ROH |
Feb-01-05 08:42 PM |
#130 |
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I generally support all non fossil energy research but |
NNadir |
Feb-02-05 05:44 AM |
#131 |
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The deadly Time Lag |
Pigwidgeon |
Feb-04-05 10:21 AM |
#134 |
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There are several issues here, economic, technical, and environmental. |
NNadir |
Feb-05-05 12:01 AM |
#136 |
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Journalists Do Not Understand The Fact That Energy Cannot Be Created |
loindelrio |
Jan-28-05 02:36 PM |
#111 |
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Yes, I think their claim was... |
ROH |
Jan-30-05 09:49 PM |
#125 |
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Has anyone considered whether thermal depolymerization (TDP) |
amandabeech |
Feb-04-05 10:54 PM |
#135 |
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Royal Dutch Shell (RD) becomes one of the biggest oils again |
jmcgowanjm |
Feb-03-05 08:22 PM |
#132 |
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Oops-in post above 168 days should read 16.8 days-thanx |
jmcgowanjm |
Feb-04-05 08:40 AM |
#133 |