Reply #19: I think the message got through this time.

[kristopher]

We took the oil shocks of the 70s seriously but it faded over time. So there is a good model to predict that $70/barrel cheap oil would just lead us into the same trap.

Or you could speculate that three things are different this time and those things are going to produce an outcome different than the 70s. The first is steadily increasing world demand - everyone knows that we are now in economic competition for a scarce, finite resource. Two is that the alternative technologies are there for personal transportation and they can be developed profitably. Third is climate change; while the right has successfully killed discussion of the topic in US news coverage, a growing number of people are disaffected by the record of failure the leaders of GW denial have brought them and they are growing increasingly more willing to support change in the energy infrastructure. So whether it is energy security, energy price stability, or energy's externalities, there is a perfect window of opportunity for change even at $70 IMO.