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Reply #15: Unemployment will likely stop rising and will even decling it just won't decline by much. [View All]

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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-01-10 09:17 AM
Response to Reply #3
15. Unemployment will likely stop rising and will even decling it just won't decline by much.
Say by end of 2010 we have net jobs creation (all jobs created - all jobs lost) of half a million. That means unemployment will fall by about 0.5% from 10.5% to 10% (or 9.99% if politicians are lucky).

Say in 2011 we manage to ramp net jobs to 1 million. That would push unemployment only done to 9% even. Say we manage another 1.5 million in 2012 that still leaves us with 7.5% unemployment. Say another 1.5 million in 2013 we are at 6% which is much better than now but still historically high. Maybe unemployment gets down to 5% by 2014 or 2015.

Now those job numbers are rather optimistic and what I would consider a best case scenario.

So the problem isn't so much unemployment rising but rather the stubborn slowness with the rate that it declines.
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