Reply #10: Too early to tell

[jiacinto]

California--Way too early to tell how this election turns. Arnold is coming into a very bad situation. How he improves or worses the problems will determine who takes over in 2006. How Boxer fares next year will determine it.

AG Bill Lockeyer could be a good candidate, but then again he voted for Arnold. And I find that unforgiveable. Then again, if Arnold falters badly, and he runs, he could say "I gave him a chance" and then make that as his campaign.

Phil Angelides and Kevin Shelly could run. Steve Westley, the Controller, won by only 16K votes. He needs to hold onto his office.

I don't know who else could run for this and win. Feinstein will probably run for re-election.

Too early to tell here.

Connecticut--This will depend on who runs. Democrats have been unable to win this office mainly because of bruising primaries and poor candidates.

Hawaii--It depends on who the Democrats run and how Lingle governs. I don't know anything about HI politics.

Maryland--I am former Marylander. I lived there my entire life and so I can give you some input.

The Democrats could win this race if Ehrlich counties to fare as poorly as he has the last few days. His win over KKT was mainly due to the ineptitude of her campaign and the negative ratings of the Glendening administration.

I think Mayor O'Malley will be a great candidate. However, Doug Duncan of Montgomery County seems prepared to run against too. So too might Anne Arundel County Executive Janet Owens. A brutal primary would hurt the party.

Whoever wins is going to need to swing the suburbs of Balitmore. Ehrlich won by 60,000 votes in Baltimore County, 50,000 in Anne Arundel. The Democratic candidate needs to pick up at 35,000 votes in the suburbs. Also the Democrats need to narrow the crushing 3-1 and more margins that Ehlrich won in exurbs of Carroll, Fredrick, and Harforc counties.

Massachusetts--Brutal primaries and bad Democratic candidates have given the GOP the edge it has there. If they can unite against a good candidate then we have a shot.

Minnesotta--Pawlenty's victory was due to the Wellstone service and the freak accident that led to Wellstone's death. As long as the Democrats can put out a good candidate, keep a Green out of the race, and stay united it, it will be competetive.

New York--A Spitzer-Giulani battle will go down to the wire. A brutal Dem primary ensures a Republican victory.

Rhode Island--York cost us this seat. She has run three times and come up short. Had she not been on the ballot Carcierri wouldn't have won.

Chaffee will win re-election comfortably.