Reply #25: First off, Rose & Bernard are already dead. Vincent has been sabotaging the survivors since season 1

[Bucky]

God, I hope that dog dies. Go back and watch old episodes. In the mini podcast episodes they make it known that the first "person" Smokey sought out as an ally, right after having possessed Christian's body, was Vincent. Vincent tried to stop Walt from leaving on the raft. Vincent cleverly lured Shannon to her death, then tricked Ana Lucia into pulling the trigger. I think Michael and Ben alone are the only people who've racked up a bigger body count than Vincent -- and that might change too if my "pet" theory about who killed all the Ajira crash survivors turns out to be true. So fuck Vincent, he needs to die.

As for the rest...

Safely alive at the end of the show:
Because they don't matter any more, Desmond and Penny and their kid, Mr & Mrs Paik, Aaron, Ji Yeon, that stewardess chick who joined the Others, Walt (I think his good-bye cameo was in Season 5)

Because the fans would freaking kill them if they died, Jin & Sun, and for different reasons Miles (he and Hurley are comic relief and you can't kill off both of your Sancho Panzas).

Because it's television, Claire, Kate, and Lapidus


Dead at the end of the show:
Because the purposes of television justice demand it, Charles Widmore, Smokey

Because they're, duh, already dead, Bernard & Rose, Christian

Because after they finish his story arc, he's basically a red shirt, Richard

Because he was originally designed to be a red shirt: Hurley (see the Season One extras disc feature on the show's origins)

Because they've been wanting to kill him since the pilot: Jack

Making noble sacrifices will be Ben, Sayid & Ilana (who only got introduced because the producers realized they didn't have single noble female character on the show)


I have no idea:
Sawyer, because I think artistically he's suffered enough and has shown himself to be the most determined survivor... but this show has never flinched from killing off someone when it might serve up a dramatic punch. I give his chances at 75% for survival. Make that 85% because they won't kill both Jack AND Sawyer and Jack totally has to die.