Reply #53: Momentum is not the issue

[mikehiggins]

If Dean does not take Iowa AND New Hampshire, this is going to end up in the Convention. Losing either of those races will bring out all of the hounds of the media talking about how the Dean movement has run aground, etc., etc., etc.

If Dean takes both states, things will be different, since Kerry will be hard pressed to carry on in the face of such a resounding rejection. Gephardt will still be in better shape but even he will be rocked considering how much time and effort his campaign put into the caucus.

In either case, Clark's campaign will continue forward no matter what.

Keep in mind what we're looking at here. Last year all these politicians (and Sharpton) were gearing up for this campaign. Clark was working for a financial firm in Arkansas (one tied to the GOP no less) and giving speeches around the US. He was also a commentator on CNN.

Certain disgruntled Dems set up a committee to persuade him to run for office, which effort proved successful. The reality of that will be discussed for years if he wins but there is no real reason to doubt it at present.

The committee manages to raise $3+ million in pledges BEFORE Clark even announces his campaign, and now the official organization is shooting to raise an additional $12 million or so this quarter.

My point is that Clark's campaign cannot be judged by the standards that apply to the others. What does he have to lose? Just like Braun and Kuchinich and Sharpton, he will hang in until the convention, no matter what happens, and may very well end up the beneficiary of a brokered convention at the end of the road. Certainly, as things stand now, the establishment will resist nominating Dean with the very last breath in their bodies. Kerry, Gephardt and Edwards will most likely be done, and Lierberman would be totally unacceptable to anybody who wanted to win the election.

Of course, this is just my own opinion but I've been around a long time and I think that Clark will most likely end up the Democratic nominee. I cannot see a situation in which Dean can get the nod unless he does it in the primaries, and I don't see him racking up a winning number that way.

Sooooooo....

We'll see, but I don't think momentum is as big an issue as it seems right now.


What has momentum to do with all this? Beats me.