Reply #47: 3rd in NH is the goal, more than good enough

[Tom Rinaldo]

If Clark had stayed in the race in Iowa, he would have needed to come in 3rd there perhaps. Because it is so hard to organize in Iowa with little time, that is the main reason he pulled out of there. He has already taken his lumps on Iowa by doing so, at this point no one expects him to come in the top four there.

NH is a different story. For a long time it has been assumed that Kerry and Dean would be the two top finishers in NH. Both are from neighboring states and both have campaigned hard there for a long time. Third is the slot all the other candidates are competing for. That would change if somehow Kerry fell to third or worse. If that happened the second slot would suddenly loom big. Think of NH as a primary between everyone other than Dean and Kerry. Whoever comes in third in NH is still viable, perhaps a very close 4th could keep someone in play. Some candidates will be eliminated for all practical purposes after NH. Kerry almost has to win, or come in a close second at worse, to not start leaking supporters.