Reply #13: there do appear to have been a few cases of human-to-human

[gkhouston]

transmission in Asia, but it's not something that happens readily, so the nightmare scenario is not yet upon us. The CDC/WHO types appear to think it's only a matter of time, now, before a strain that does pass quite easily from human to human breaks out. How lethal it will be and whether Tamiflu will do much good, even if you can get your hands on some, is anybody's guess. There was one study, in Vietnam I think, which showed that you need a higher dose than usual for a longer time period than is typical (10 days instead of 7, I think) for the Tamiflu to help and even that doesn't guarantee survival. That was for one strain of H5N1 and may not be true for "the" strain that makes the jump to human-to-human.