Reply #12: As I mentioned...

[punpirate]

... the money allocated for this particular weapon is mostly for design and feasibility studies, right now. As for production of new pits, I don't think that's necessary, in the short term--over the years, groups of weapons have been recycled into newer designs. That's happened with the current weapon, the B-61, and others.

The real design work has to concentrate on two areas--physical shape and size for optimum penetration to very deep targets, and protection of the weapon itself from shock loads, which reveals new problems (heavier tampers, no levitated cores, new designs for electronics packaging and components, etc.).

All that isn't going to be accomplished in a few months for use in Iran. That's my point--if there are plans to attack Iran with nuclear weapons in the near future, it will have to be with what is in the inventory now, and those won't do the job, and have the additional problem of being very destructive to civilians on the surface--which then potentially trigger all those unintended consequences.

What does bother me about the 2004 budget line items you mention are the monies allocated for Savannah River and Pantex--those are production facilities which are now horrible messes. Add into that the money for a "Phase I revitalization" plan, which signals the end of the underground test ban, and you have all the elements for a reinvigorated production capacity, precisely the opposite of what recent treaties have intended.

That's more than a little worrisome, but it's not going to have an effect on near-term decisions about Iran.

Cheers.