Reply #17: This isn't going to be another Iraq - not a ground war

[leveymg]

I'm still hoping the June attack date is part of a psywar campaign, hardball deception to get the Iranians to give up their nuclear program and to pressure the European into backing the Bush Administration at the IAEC and the UN. It could also be a dirty-trick effort to provoke the Iranians into striking first.

But, if it comes to war, this is what one can expect:

The US/Israeli side and Iranians will quickly trade their primary assets -the US/Israelis will launch decapitation strikes against Iranian leadership, technology and scientific targets along with air strikes on missile launchers, air fields and CBW storage sites.

The Iranians will target Israeli and US troop concentrations in the region with whatever chemical and biological weapons they can launch. Expect some quick cross-border raids by both sides.

But, no one expects the US and its allies to attempt a full-scale Desert Storm type invasion, at least not immediately. The Iranians can field 17 million men under arms, according to the CIA. The US/Israelis simply can't put enough boots on the ground without America reviving the draft, unless there's a much bigger allied contingent this time.

If the Iranians can resist the temptation to attack the mainland US, there would probably be a great deal of domestic resistance to a full-scale war against Iran. If there's some kind of mass casualty event event stateside -- either before military hostilities commences or afterwards -- we're all going to be wearing camouflage fatigues or in jail.

The big question is how are the Pakistanis going to react? There have been scenarios that foresee the overthrow of Musharraf, and a launch of some of the Pakistani nuclear missiles at Israel. Israel would likely retaliate in kind.

For more details read:

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0410/S00146.htm

http://www.williambowles.info/iran/osp_aipac.html

Any way you look at it, World War III is the right term for it.