Reply #7: yes, he's very hard to predict ...

[welshTerrier2]

but look at this from his perspective ... his "faction" in Iraq will easily win a strong majority ...

it's hard to see how he could believe Shia rule in Iraq would be widely accepted ... the "rebel forces" are not just going to say "oh, well, the people have spoken" ... and it's hard to see how Sistani could believe a new Shia government could end the rebellion on its own anytime soon ...

bush went public with the statements he made to give him cover if he decides to withdraw ... if he wants out, he gets Sistani to ask the U.S. to leave ... then bush says we toppled Saddam, we got them democratic elections, we honored their request to leave proving our motives were always in the best interests of the Iraqi people ... he gains either way ...

but the truth is, his motives are not pure in Iraq ... his motives are nothing but greed and power ... so i don't think that's the path bush will choose ... and if bush wants to stay, there are infinite "bribes" he could offer Sistani ... Sistani has the political clout to kick the U.S. out ... but i just don't see the motivation anytime soon ... I think he's been offered a deal he just couldn't refuse ...