Reply #39: dsc, precisely...

[TruthIsAll]

I used 666 as an example. But the true question is what is the probability that ANY result occurs exactly 3 (or more) times in the set of N lotteries or elections? Here it is more complicated, because we do not know precisely the number of Repub voters, the underlying distribution around the mean, the range, etc.

I think that perhaps the uniform distribution, where ALL vote counts are equally likely within a range, may be a good, first-cut model, due to its simplicity. In fact, this is what I used intially, until I meandered into the Poisson Distribution - which may or may not be appropriate.