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Reply #17: predictability can only be achieved through a cause and effect relationshi [View All]

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treepig Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-30-03 03:32 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. predictability can only be achieved through a cause and effect relationshi
and even then you must use caution!

first, regarding your aspirin example, it is not a scientific finding to make a statistical correlation between taking aspirin, and subsequent reduced headache pain. but, as you suggest, if you then use this information to lay out a hypothesis stating that aspirin reduces headache pain and do the placebo controlled studies you mention, then you have a scientific finding.

so when TIA uses his impeccable statistics to predict the outcome of future elections (instead of cherry picking results afterwards), then he'll have moved beyond the entertainment stage.

one more example about statistics - in the 80's i established a statistical correlation between the age of my sister's turtle and the distance of the voyager 1 spacecraft from earth. there was a very consistent relationship between the two variables; in fact the correlation co-efficient was greater than .99999! i even derived an equation that could predict one variable based on the value of the other. according to your statement "It's enough to show a conisstent relaitonship between two variables to have a scientific finding. It's predictability, rather than cause and effect, that researchers hang their hats on." i had come up with a rock-solid scientific finding. common sense would indicate otherwise, however, since there is absolutely no cause and effect relationship between this statistically unasailable finding.
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  -Next time, you TIA-bashers, bring YOUR own model into my thread, OK? TruthIsAll  Aug-30-03 02:05 AM   #0 
  - TIA, you do a shitload of work  Terwilliger   Aug-30-03 02:10 AM   #1 
  - What posts on the JFK assassination?  JustJoe   Aug-30-03 02:10 AM   #2 
  - Here it is...  TruthIsAll   Aug-30-03 02:45 AM   #4 
     - Here are the JFK mystery deaths referenced above. The link is broken .  TruthIsAll   Aug-30-03 07:24 PM   #24 
  - I appreciate the work you do, and that of Bev and DemActivist also.  oasis   Aug-30-03 02:24 AM   #3 
  - No criticism from me.  Old and In the Way   Aug-30-03 05:47 AM   #5 
  - TIA, I barely got a B- in a 100 level stats class  Cheswick   Aug-30-03 05:56 AM   #6 
  - i think the basic problem is a fundamental misapplication of statistics  treepig   Aug-30-03 08:48 AM   #7 
  - Its amazing how those truly statistically challenged, like yourself...  TruthIsAll   Aug-30-03 11:39 AM   #9 
  - hey, have fun!  treepig   Aug-30-03 11:59 AM   #11 
     - I have just refuted YOUR twisted logic, but like a Repuke,  TruthIsAll   Aug-30-03 12:03 PM   #12 
     - ok, thank you for the clarification!  treepig   Aug-30-03 12:19 PM   #14 
     - My motive? You want a motive? Um.... ok  TruthIsAll   Aug-30-03 12:27 PM   #15 
     - i've taken statistic classes  treepig   Aug-30-03 03:56 PM   #18 
        - You miss the point. We are not trying to "prove" anything..  TruthIsAll   Aug-30-03 05:22 PM   #19 
           - the statistical analysis is not necessary  Cocoa   Aug-30-03 06:15 PM   #21 
           - you seem to be preaching to the choir here  treepig   Aug-30-03 08:30 PM   #27 
           - You'd be surprised who is attending here: many non-believers  TruthIsAll   Aug-30-03 08:50 PM   #28 
           - i didn't have time to finish the post yesterday  treepig   Aug-31-03 08:33 AM   #42 
           - Actually...the poisson distributions...  Nazgul35   Aug-30-03 09:15 PM   #31 
              - Nazgul35, yours is an incisive, intelligent post..  TruthIsAll   Aug-30-03 10:27 PM   #37 
                 - The correct question is  dsc   Aug-30-03 10:47 PM   #38 
                    - dsc, precisely...  TruthIsAll   Aug-30-03 11:04 PM   #39 
                       - I would probably start  dsc   Aug-30-03 11:54 PM   #40 
                       - to naysay the naysayers...  Nazgul35   Aug-31-03 12:14 AM   #41 
                          - Here is what many of us have a problem with  dsc   Aug-31-03 09:00 AM   #43 
     - Nuts.  Jackpine Radical   Aug-30-03 12:48 PM   #16 
        - predictability can only be achieved through a cause and effect relationshi  treepig   Aug-30-03 03:32 PM   #17 
  - you know what I like?  JNelson6563   Aug-30-03 11:48 AM   #10 
  - If they can't appreciate what you do  blm   Aug-30-03 09:34 AM   #8 
  - Having been called a McCarthyite Klansman this morning on DU myself  Generic Other   Aug-30-03 12:05 PM   #13 
  - I don't like math  Eloriel   Aug-30-03 06:03 PM   #20 
  - a priori vs a posteriori  TomNickell   Aug-30-03 06:30 PM   #22 
  - Tom, your argument ain't worth a plumb Nickel  TruthIsAll   Aug-30-03 08:06 PM   #26 
     - Don't think we'll get anywhere but I'll try....  TomNickell   Aug-30-03 09:04 PM   #29 
     - I said I wouldn't be drawn in, but I can't resist..  TruthIsAll   Aug-30-03 09:47 PM   #32 
        - Off the Wall?  TomNickell   Aug-30-03 10:23 PM   #35 
     - cops and nightclub owners  dsc   Aug-30-03 09:06 PM   #30 
        - Shady? A nice 1964 kind of word.  TomNickell   Aug-30-03 10:27 PM   #36 
  - WHO IS BASHING MY BELOVED TIA  Skittles   Aug-30-03 07:24 PM   #23 
  - Thanks, Skittles, but this GUY can take care of himself...  TruthIsAll   Aug-30-03 07:46 PM   #25 
     - Naw, I don't discriminate based on gender  Skittles   Aug-31-03 05:35 PM   #44 
  - This is intriguing and is worthy of research  MODemocrat   Aug-30-03 09:57 PM   #33 
     - I love junk science!  nwstrn   Aug-30-03 10:16 PM   #34 

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