Reply #9: Its amazing how those truly statistically challenged, like yourself...

[TruthIsAll]

offer up criticism which belies your knowledge, or shall we say, lack of it. You are what I call a coincidence theorist, which just proves your lack of understanding of what probability theory is all about.

You say:
"i think the basic problem is a fundamental misapplication of statistics"
the models you present are fine for amusement purposes, but it's a huge stretch for them to have any further significance (such as establishment of culpability in any meaningful way)

I say:
You are partially correct. I DO enjoy the challenge. But, please, don't dare go to Atlantic City expecting to win. Any slot-machine playing grandma knows more about the odds than you do. I plead guilty of analyzing what you would call a "coincidence" in a way that would be obvious to anyone who has taken Probability 101 and applying it to the real world. The results are NOT for amusement, however. They serve to establish a circumstantial case for conspiracy using mathematics to explain what you would just call a "coincidence". To say it is a coincidence is to take the easy way out from your having to actually ANALYZE the problem, which would be beyond your level of mathematical maturity.

You say:
the main reason is that there are an incrediblely large number of events going on, and statistically improbable happenings take place on a regular basis. for example, what are the odds that i would eat the exact tomato i ate for dinner yesterday? i'd estimate about one out of 10 billion, yet it happened.

I say:
This is a very sad statement. Shows a complete innocence in the basic probability concepts. Let me explain and hopefully remove the web of confusion you are suffocating in.

Lets say I gathered all the tomatoes in the word and numbered them from 1 to 10 billion. I then put them into a large sack. And I told you I would give you a $10 billion if you picked out the one with the number 6,666,666,666 by reaching your very long arm into the sack without looking. The chances that you would get THAT one is 1 out of a 10 billion. The chances that you would get ANY tomato is 100%.

Are you any wiser now? Or just feel embarrassed that your ignorance of basic probability has been exposed for all of DU to see?

You say:
or what are the odds that bill clinton became president? there were at least 100,000,000 people eligible for the job (u.s. citizens older than 35) so the probability that he would become president was .00000001 - MASSIVE fraud must have been involved for such an unlikely event to occur!

I say:
This is exactly the same as above. Instead of a tomato, substitute Bill Clinton.

I am burning a few calories responding to your post. This is surreal. Do yourself a favor. In the future, to avoid looking...um.. silly, make sure you know you have a modicum of knowledge on a subject before commenting on it.

As Al Pacino playing Ricky Roma in "Glen Garry, Glen Ross" said speaking to his manager, played by Kevin Spacey, who has just fucked up Pacinos real estate sale:

"The next time, you child, unless you know what you're talking about, just keep your f****ing mouth shut!"