Reply #12: I don't have anything to sell.

[TruthIsAll]

You:

Sorry, no sale. I agree that it looks good right now but your model only "predicts" what the outcome would be if the vote were held today. The probability is not the probability for november, but rather the confidence rate that, if you took the same polls again, you'd get results within the margin(s) of error of all these polls. I like your outcomes, but you're math isn't answering the questions you claim it is.

Me:
Of course, it calculates probabilities if the election were held today according to the split in the undecided vote. That's called sensitivity analysis. Its a projection model which, like all models, will be updated with the latest data as it becomes available. Do you have a better approach?


You:
Besides which, you're only selecting the two candidate model. There is a third candidate who's running 4-8% in most polls right now. That will probably drop off, but we can't assume that it will.

Me:
I take into account the "other" voters, which includes undecided and Nader. And based on historical data, they will go to the challenger by 60-80%. Nader got 2.7% of the total vote last time; he will get less than that this time. I allocate Kerry's share of the "other" votes, from 60-100%. Again, the sensitivity analysis gives us a range of outcomes and probability of Kerry winning, depending on his share of the "other" vote.

You:
Three months out, obviously all the players haven't played all their cards. Whatever they do in October will certainly impact the vote.

Me:
No kidding. That's obvious. And that's why I will run this and other simulation models as I continue to get new data.

You:
Finally, you're dealing with the popular vote as if it matters. It doesn't. Kerry could get 60% of the vote and it woldn't matter if the votes aren't arranged in the right states to produce an electoral college majority.

Me:
Sorry to say this, but you have just revealed your total ignorance by that statement. There has never been an election where a candidate got over 51% of the vote and lost the election. That can only happen if the margin is razor thin.

When a candidate gets 55% of the popular vote, he has a 99.999% lock on more than 270 EV's probability of winning, I suggest you check out my electoral vote simulation model.