Reply #2: whenever he wants before June 2006

[muriel_volestrangler]

and he will remain the leader of the Labour party unless a party conference votes by more than 50% to get rid of him (which is very unlikely).

The last poll I have seen (6th April) had Labour and Conservatives equal on 34%, and Liberal Democrats 22%. Given the way the votes in areas divide up, this would probably mean Labour would get back in with a very small majority.

One piece of news that might change things (though god knows how, yet) is Blair now wants to have a referendum on the European constitution:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3635943.stm
Although the referendum, the first of its kind since 1975, has not been officially announced, the prime minister has taken the decision in principle.

The hugely significant shift of policy follows months of resistance to holding a poll.

Pressure had been mounting from political opponents and a eurosceptic media who said the electorate should have a say on the issue.

This might mean that he's now confident he'd be able to win the referendum (he's in favour of signing the constitution), or that it's better to allow a vote on it, and lose gracefully, than to push it through Parliament without giving the electorate a say. It's also possible that he thinks another country is bound to reject it before the UK gets round to the referendum, in which case he may as well say he's happy for the vote to happen, because it wouldn't make any difference.

Whatever happens in the referendum could affect the voting in the general election - a win for Blair would give him momentum.