Nader Wins It For Dems

[devoedem]

A Nader candidacy could help the Democrats win in November. How is this possible?

To discern this requires us to recognize the differences between the current political context and that of 2000, and to look beneath the surface.

These are the key differences:

We had a good economy in 2000, stable international relations, an "incumbent" nominee who inherited a moderate New Democratic legacy of Bill Clinton, and a somnambulent electorate (not to be confused with "polarized" just because the vote was so close).

In 2004, we have a weak economy, unstable international relations, a right-wing reactionary pResident, and a potentially animated electorate (relatively speaking). And, of course, we have history, the memory of what happened in 2000.

I think the dynamic this time around will be that Nader must primarily (90%?) attack the extreme foreign and domestic policies of the incumbent Bush, the claim that there is little difference between Dems and Repubs won't have near the traction in 2004, obviously.

What we could have is 2(!!) national campaigns bent on bringing down Bush, and in the final analysis, there should be a net gain of votes for the Democratic nominee - this will not be a year for a "protest vote" and nothing to gain by improving the foothold of the Greens (because Nader is running as an Independent). The more attention the Nader campaign garners, the better; the Democratic nominee will look more moderate by comparison to swing voters. The additional voters energized by his campaign, regardless of preceding polls, come E-Day, 75% of them will probably go Democratic.

To fully leverage this potential "second front" provided by Nader, the Democratic nominee must position himself as an ally.