TWO of the Wisconsin recalls likely STOLEN: Dems should have an 18-15 majority (if anybody cares

[midnight]

In the three strongly Democratic exit poll locations (Shorewood, Pardeeville and Baraboo), 52% of voters participated. If the vote counts were correct, then 61% of Democrats and just 33% of Republicans participated. That is plausible since Republicans might have been reluctant to respond in heavily Democratic locations. Therefore, it is likely that the vote counts were correct; the exit polls overstated the Democratic vote. The Democratic exit poll shares were much higher than the recorded votes in Shorewood (10.9%), Pardeeville (8.5%) and Baraboo (15.8%). But in these locations, the TVM closely matched the recorded vote.

In the two heavily Republican locations (Butler and Menomonee Falls), 33% of voters participated. If the vote counts were correct, then 45% of Democrats and 28% of Republicans responded. It is implausible that Democratic participation would exceed Republicans by 17% in heavily Republican locations. Therefore, it is likely that the votes were miscounted; the exit polls were correct. In Butler and Menomonee Falls the Democrats did 16.5% and 11.0% better, respectively, in the polls than in the official count. In the True Vote Model (TVM), they did 11.0% and 8.3% better.

The NEP refused to release precinct data, claiming the need to protect voter “privacy”. It’s a canard; exit poll responders do not reveal their identity. There is no excuse for suppressing the release of unadjusted precinct exit poll data.

Based on the True Vote Model and the exit polls, it is very likely that the District 8 and 14 recall elections were stolen. The Republicans control the state senate by a 17-16 majority, but the Democrats should be in control by 18-15.http://markcrispinmiller.com/2011/08/two-of-the-wisconsin-recalls-likely-stolen-dems-should-have-an-18-15-majority-if-anybody-cares/

This is an update from a race that had Sandy Pasch winning by 1500 votes around 10:30 pm.... Kathy Nicolas has a hand in tabulating these votes too. She said there would be a delay around 11:00 p.m. After a delay of approximately one hour.... AP announced the Republican had held on to this dist. 8 seat..... This dist. had poll workers shut down for hours during the heaviest voting period in the town of Butler... Washington Attorney John Nicholas said that they all have the same equipment and everyone is able to in a timely fashion release data but Kathy Nicholas-very concerning....