Reply #23: There isn't much time left, and the problem is snowballing

[GliderGuider]

I've just completed an analysis of the African food security situation out to 2040, and frankly it's beyond horrifying. If my assessment is even close to being correct (and reviewers have said my assumptions are actually conservative) Africa stands to lose over half its present population of 900+ million in the next 30 years, due to food shortages caused by a malignant convergence of climate change, oil depletion, HIV/AIDS, water shortages, investment and foreign aid shortfalls, rising transportation costs and soaring world fertilizer and food prices.

As that begins to happen, the resulting social breakdown will open up vast windows for warfare and genocide. We will also see another round of Disaster Capitalism play out as transnational corporations line the banks of the Zambezi like vultures, offering calamity-wracked African nations a pittance of relief in return for unhindered access to their remaining natural resources.

From Africa in 2040: The Darkened Continent:



There isn't much time left to bring more African land under the plow, and the resources to do that appear to be either lacking or prohibitively expensive for domestic African budgets. International corporate and political sentiment seems to have written Africa off already, and if the rice situation continues to deteriorate, South Asia will be very close behind. The next four years are crucial for the establishment of new international aid and development policies -- after that the die will be well and truly cast. I hope the new American president is up to the leadership task.