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OHIO 2004: 6.15% Kerry-Bush vote-switch found in probability study [View All]

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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-28-07 03:24 PM
Original message
OHIO 2004: 6.15% Kerry-Bush vote-switch found in probability study
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Edited on Sun Jan-28-07 04:08 PM by L. Coyote
Defining the vote outcome probabilities of wrong-precinct voting has revealed, in a sample of 166,953 votes (1/34th of the Ohio vote), the Kerry-Bush margin changes 6.15% when the population is sorted by probable outcomes of wrong-precinct voting.

The Kerry to Bush 6.15% vote-switch differential is seen when the large sample is sorted by probability a Kerry wrong-precinct vote counts for Bush. When the same large voter sample is sorted by the probability Kerry votes count for third-party candidates, Kerry votes are instead equal in both subsets.

Read the revised article with graphs of new findings:

The 2004 Ohio Presidential Election: Cuyahoga County Analysis
How Kerry Votes Were Switched to Bush Votes

http://jqjacobs.net/politics/ohio.html

A small spreadsheet too:

http://jqjacobs.net/politics/xls/cuyahoga_t_tests.xls
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  -OHIO 2004: 6.15% Kerry-Bush vote-switch found in probability study L. Coyote  Jan-28-07 03:24 PM   #0 
  - I hate math! What does this mean in simple language.  ray of light   Jan-28-07 03:27 PM   #1 
  - Kerry won.  btmlndfrmr   Jan-28-07 03:35 PM   #3 
  - So what...?  regnaD kciN   Apr-30-07 10:52 PM   #80 
  - It means it was an inside job  krispos42   Jan-29-07 03:20 AM   #20 
  - Ballot order should never be different within a county. PERIOD  LiberalFighter   Jan-29-07 12:58 PM   #25 
  - Yeah, right  krispos42   Jan-29-07 01:26 PM   #26 
  - County Election Boards should never be appointed by SOS  LiberalFighter   Jan-29-07 01:31 PM   #27 
  - A few comments, "This is just the beginning."  L. Coyote   Jan-29-07 02:17 PM   #28 
     - Yeah, I misunderstood the order thing  krispos42   Jan-30-07 04:49 AM   #30 
        - UNBELIEVABLE, except if the idea is to switch votes.  L. Coyote   Jan-30-07 09:04 AM   #31 
           - third party or disqualified  krispos42   Jan-30-07 11:58 AM   #32 
              - The only reason Gore isn't our President  L. Coyote   Jan-30-07 04:52 PM   #35 
  - TruthIsAll confirms the analysis  caruso   Jan-30-07 12:35 PM   #33 
  - Self-delete  caruso   Jan-30-07 12:39 PM   #34 
  - It means both Gore and Kerry  zidzi   Feb-16-07 07:37 PM   #52 
  - What needs to happen  davhill   Jan-28-07 03:35 PM   #2 
  - That's the only way it will ever be settled.  Toucano   Jan-28-07 04:09 PM   #7 
  - "we have to get a sense of the magnitude of the problem..."  L. Coyote   Feb-16-07 03:39 PM   #51 
  - Were the Democrats in Congress covering up the facts in 2005?  L. Coyote   Feb-04-07 09:01 AM   #39 
  - Secretary Brunner has publicly announced her willingness to settle ....  L. Coyote   Feb-15-07 09:40 AM   #45 
  - Major Pending Election Law Litigation = Election Law @ Moritz  L. Coyote   Feb-15-07 11:57 AM   #48 
  - Recommended #5  Benhurst   Jan-28-07 03:36 PM   #4 
  - Kerry? Edwards? Comments?  The Count   Jan-28-07 03:38 PM   #5 
  - HONESTY FACTOR missing from OHIO 2006 dialogue. New voting better??  L. Coyote   Feb-13-07 05:54 PM   #44 
     - SEPT 2006: Lawsuit alleges ballot tampering in 2004 election  L. Coyote   Feb-15-07 10:15 AM   #46 
        - 19.44% of voters purged from the voter rolls in Cuyahoga County ...  L. Coyote   Feb-15-07 10:47 AM   #47 
  - second link not working  btmlndfrmr   Jan-28-07 04:04 PM   #6 
  - FIXED. Thanks. N/T  L. Coyote   Jan-28-07 04:12 PM   #8 
     - No prob., You might want to cross post this in the election forum as well. n/t  btmlndfrmr   Jan-28-07 04:16 PM   #9 
  - Didn't the Diebold CEO guarantee Ohio for Bush in 2004?  indepat   Jan-28-07 04:37 PM   #10 
  - Punch Cards are a distinct issue  L. Coyote   Jan-31-07 07:43 PM   #37 
  - This is a very, very important study. The intro helps a lot in getting the  Peace Patriot   Jan-28-07 05:04 PM   #11 
  - Here is a paragraph, from down in the article, that helps:  Peace Patriot   Jan-28-07 05:41 PM   #13 
     - There needs to be an analyzer devised to compute the probability  LiberalFighter   Jan-29-07 12:54 PM   #24 
  - The Cosmic Cat keeps unraveling this !!  galloglas   Jan-28-07 05:39 PM   #12 
  - thanks everyone. That's exactly what I thought it meant, but my heart  ray of light   Jan-28-07 06:16 PM   #14 
  - Actually - this unfortunately explains  karynnj   Jan-28-07 06:36 PM   #15 
  - Steal from me, it's my fault ?? NOT  L. Coyote   Jan-28-07 06:55 PM   #16 
  - RFK mentioned the problem  karynnj   Jan-28-07 07:16 PM   #17 
  - Glad it's coming out. Recommended.  Vidar   Jan-29-07 03:46 AM   #21 
     - Lots more to follow. But, hey, everyone jump in ...  L. Coyote   Jan-29-07 07:08 PM   #29 
  - In a Small rural county the Bush vote declined 6-7% from 00-04  Ouabache   Jan-28-07 09:08 PM   #18 
  - "an indicator of fraud in other places"  L. Coyote   Jan-31-07 09:08 AM   #36 
  - This needs to come out! Senator Kerry has taken enough bashing  wisteria   Jan-28-07 10:31 PM   #19 
  - it's sad and infuriating at the same time! n/t  ginnyinWI   Jan-29-07 09:27 AM   #22 
  - kick!  ginnyinWI   Jan-29-07 10:51 AM   #23 
     - kick n/t  L. Coyote   Feb-01-07 10:20 PM   #38 
        - kick w/news an Ohio official is investigating (private communication) n/t  L. Coyote   Feb-27-07 12:39 PM   #57 
  - Dec. 2005 Fitrakis: "Fake voting rights activists ... linked to White House..."  L. Coyote   Feb-16-07 10:24 AM   #49 
  - One Vote Makes a Difference  L. Coyote   Feb-07-07 12:12 PM   #40 
  - Cuyahoga Co. Elections Director Vu Ousted by BOE, finally ....  L. Coyote   Feb-08-07 07:12 PM   #41 
  - Editorial: VU "presided over two consecutive debacles .. county a laughingstock.  L. Coyote   Feb-11-07 08:58 AM   #42 
  - Rep. Tubbs Jones = House Committee hires Cuyahoga prosecutor  L. Coyote   Feb-13-07 10:59 AM   #43 
  - Pre-election Mighty Texas Strike Force pay phones to make intimidating calls  L. Coyote   Feb-16-07 01:02 PM   #50 
  - Deja Vu - 2004 Cuyahoga DU Posts are now a unique retrospective  L. Coyote   Feb-17-07 06:49 PM   #53 
  - so W stole TWO elections?  refjohn   Feb-17-07 09:26 PM   #54 
  - You're an amusing little prick.  karlrschneider   Feb-17-07 11:23 PM   #55 
  - NEW PowerPoint Posted = All the Graphs from the Article.  L. Coyote   Feb-18-07 05:09 PM   #56 
  - FLAWED election board security = keys to ballots not secured  L. Coyote   Feb-28-07 10:53 AM   #58 
  - Two words: Election Theft.  Karenina   Mar-01-07 03:36 PM   #59 
  - House Judiciary Committee to Investigate Deceptive Election Practices  L. Coyote   Mar-07-07 10:39 AM   #60 
  - NEW: Printer Friendly Word Version = LINK  L. Coyote   Mar-11-07 02:51 PM   #61 
  - New Ohio SoS seeks resignations of Cuyahoga BOE, includes GOP chairman.  L. Coyote   Mar-20-07 07:02 PM   #62 
  - Complaint against the remaining Cuyahoga County Board of Election officials  L. Coyote   Mar-23-07 01:34 PM   #63 
  - Brunner made right move in Cuyahoga  L. Coyote   Mar-23-07 01:35 PM   #64 
  - 2nd Election Official Quits in Ohio  L. Coyote   Mar-23-07 01:38 PM   #65 
  - "Secretary of State tightens screws on Elections Board" in the MSM  L. Coyote   Mar-23-07 01:41 PM   #66 
  - DUer eomer: Ohio SoS pulls plug on Cuyahoga BOE Chairman Bennett  L. Coyote   Apr-04-07 12:59 PM   #67 
  - freepress: Bye bye to Cleveland GOP Election Chair Bob "Ballots for Bush" Bennett  L. Coyote   Apr-18-07 06:26 PM   #75 
  - Bennett hearing delayed at Bennett's request. April 16, 9 a.m.  L. Coyote   Apr-06-07 12:47 PM   #69 
  - HUGE: Ohio SoS to take possession of the 2004 ballots and other key documents  L. Coyote   Apr-05-07 10:31 AM   #68 
  - Joint Motions Regarding Disposition of all Ballots & to Stay all Proceedings until June 8, 2007  L. Coyote   Apr-08-07 10:38 AM   #70 
  - Is The Long Awaited Overhaul of Cuyahoga Board of Elections Around the Corner?  L. Coyote   Apr-08-07 05:39 PM   #71 
  - The Ohio election story is going to come back. By Matt Taibbi  L. Coyote   Apr-09-07 12:46 AM   #72 
  - MUST READ: US Attorney scandal and Ohio in '04 = NOE, et.al.  L. Coyote   Apr-09-07 09:23 AM   #73 
  - Explosive new documentary presents evidence of fraud in 2004 election  L. Coyote   Apr-14-07 11:19 AM   #74 
  - Has anyone seen this yet? n/t  L. Coyote   Apr-19-07 05:36 PM   #76 
  - opednews.com: They Got The Wrong Guy by Jayne Lyn Stahl  L. Coyote   Apr-21-07 08:44 AM   #77 
  - GET REAL: Steven Rosenfeld and Bob Fitrakis as "coincidence theorists"  L. Coyote   Apr-24-07 01:03 PM   #78 
  - Speculation Theorists on a rampage. Is it a new phase of the FRAUD COVER-UP.  L. Coyote   Apr-30-07 11:53 AM   #79 
  - some of that critique is playing with definition. there is an element of coincidence but  yurbud   May-06-07 12:54 PM   #86 
  - The True Goal of Gonzo-Gate: Tamping Down the Black Vote  L. Coyote   May-01-07 09:36 PM   #81 
  - Changes at troubled elections board in Cuyahoga County to get first test  L. Coyote   May-05-07 08:42 PM   #82 
  - Petition to Congress requesting an investigation into the Presidential Election  L. Coyote   May-06-07 07:12 AM   #83 
  - kick  yurbud   May-06-07 12:48 PM   #84 
  - great. can we get a candidate who doesn't concede before people figure this stuff out next time?  yurbud   May-06-07 12:49 PM   #85 
  - The cross-vote probability method was not developed until 2005  L. Coyote   May-07-07 02:02 PM   #87 
     - NEW graphic highlighting the vote-switching proof  L. Coyote   May-26-07 09:01 AM   #89 
  - X-Post: OHIO 2004: Did vote-switching occur in Cuyahoga County?  L. Coyote   May-13-07 07:40 AM   #88 
  - NEW PowerPoint highlighting the Election Fraud evidence  L. Coyote   May-26-07 05:13 PM   #90 
 

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