DrBB
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Mon May-10-04 07:25 PM
Response to Original message |
| 53. "Likely voters" is a deeply suspect category |
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That Bush "lead" is based on preferences of "likely voters." Who is a "likely voter"? A likely voter is defined as someone who voted in 2000. But there are numerous indications that voter turnout will be much higher particularly among anti-Bush voters and Dems, who are vastly more energized than they were in 2000.
Anyway, at this stage an incumbent's approvals should be in the high 50s if he's going to be reelected.
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| -Latest CNN/USAT poll--Bush approval at 46% |
kstewart33 |
May-10-04 03:06 PM |
#0 |
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This is a Bullshit propoganda poll |
Beetwasher |
May-10-04 03:07 PM |
#1 |
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Gallup's polls of likely voters over-represent Repukes |
diplomats |
May-10-04 03:16 PM |
#9 |
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Yeah, I Know |
Beetwasher |
May-10-04 03:17 PM |
#11 |
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"...the only president "this far behind" at this point in an election year |
BadGimp |
May-10-04 06:08 PM |
#45 |
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To Quote Paul Simon |
Yavin4 |
May-10-04 03:08 PM |
#2 |
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What does it take |
Betty |
May-10-04 03:09 PM |
#3 |
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They can put all the lies out for as long as they want. |
DiverDave |
May-10-04 03:11 PM |
#4 |
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but.. but.. he's a popular wartime "President"!! |
Sagan |
May-10-04 03:12 PM |
#5 |
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Question: |
Oregonian |
May-10-04 04:07 PM |
#24 |
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No way is Bush winning at 48% with 46% approval. |
blm |
May-10-04 03:12 PM |
#6 |
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that is ironic |
gasperc |
May-10-04 03:14 PM |
#8 |
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Indeed |
Beetwasher |
May-10-04 03:16 PM |
#10 |
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No, but they narrowed it to likely voters |
diplomats |
May-10-04 03:20 PM |
#14 |
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Yeah, You're probably Right |
Beetwasher |
May-10-04 03:23 PM |
#16 |
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5 letters for you |
WorstPresidentEver |
May-10-04 04:11 PM |
#25 |
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Nader Explains Kerry's Lower Number but Not Bush's |
Beetwasher |
May-10-04 04:20 PM |
#27 |
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The likely voter sample is a subset of the larger sample |
diplomats |
May-10-04 04:30 PM |
#30 |
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Yeah, Sorry, Should Have Included that Possibility Too! |
Beetwasher |
May-10-04 04:35 PM |
#32 |
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Here's how it works: 48% of LIKELY voters compared to 44% of REGISTERED |
0rganism |
May-10-04 06:01 PM |
#44 |
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Spin Spin Spin |
goclark |
May-10-04 03:13 PM |
#7 |
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Possible to win at 46 percent? |
diplomats |
May-10-04 03:18 PM |
#12 |
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Harry Truman |
beyurslf |
May-10-04 03:30 PM |
#18 |
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I knew Truman wasn't popular, but I didn't what his rating was |
diplomats |
May-10-04 03:48 PM |
#21 |
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Truman also won because of the block vote of the south |
jobycom |
May-10-04 05:03 PM |
#33 |
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The Gallup Poll that year was way off. |
Zynx |
May-10-04 04:16 PM |
#26 |
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They didn't poll in 1864. . . |
Journeyman |
May-10-04 05:51 PM |
#40 |
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I was wondering about the media ho's my own self |
cybildisobedience |
May-10-04 03:22 PM |
#15 |
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Yes, the tide is turning. |
yardwork |
May-10-04 03:55 PM |
#23 |
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Oh ho ho |
boobooday |
May-10-04 03:20 PM |
#13 |
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LIES that just don't add up |
tom_paine |
May-10-04 03:24 PM |
#17 |
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Bush Approval Rating Poll chart. |
lfairban |
May-10-04 03:32 PM |
#19 |
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This is a great site - every poll you'll ever need |
Atlanticist |
May-10-04 03:40 PM |
#20 |
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Great site, thanks! |
crossroads |
May-10-04 04:23 PM |
#28 |
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I didn't realize that one had graphs. |
lfairban |
May-10-04 05:07 PM |
#34 |
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Note Kerry Leads Bush.. |
Teaser |
May-10-04 03:53 PM |
#22 |
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Good point! |
crossroads |
May-10-04 04:24 PM |
#29 |
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I don't understand |
goclark |
May-10-04 04:31 PM |
#31 |
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What the F*CK is Kerry's problem??? |
dnvechoes |
May-10-04 05:35 PM |
#35 |
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Nader? |
othermeans |
May-10-04 05:42 PM |
#36 |
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No no no no no! |
dnvechoes |
May-10-04 05:47 PM |
#39 |
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He's going to wait until he's damn-well ready, that's what |
0rganism |
May-10-04 05:56 PM |
#42 |
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You're asking me to put a lot of trust in this guy... |
dnvechoes |
May-10-04 06:01 PM |
#43 |
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bush is in serious trouble: his disapproval # is above his approval # |
0rganism |
May-10-04 06:11 PM |
#46 |
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Right, but shouldn't that mean that Kerry's good to go? |
dnvechoes |
May-10-04 06:26 PM |
#48 |
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It's still too early to "go" |
0rganism |
May-10-04 06:57 PM |
#50 |
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That's a good point, but... |
dnvechoes |
May-10-04 07:02 PM |
#51 |
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Kerry doesn't offer a strong alternative |
Jen6 |
May-10-04 07:02 PM |
#52 |
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The cynic in me has to ask how it can still be so high. |
DemosthenesOfTheWest |
May-10-04 05:43 PM |
#37 |
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## Support Democratic Underground! ## |
DU GrovelBot |
May-10-04 05:43 PM |
#38 |
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That's GREAT NEWS for John Kerry |
0rganism |
May-10-04 05:53 PM |
#41 |
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This is excellent news, given this is a Gallup Poll |
XanthaS |
May-10-04 06:22 PM |
#47 |
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DO NOT despair, DUers! Bush will be toast after this summer. |
loudsue |
May-10-04 06:38 PM |
#49 |
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"Likely voters" is a deeply suspect category |
DrBB |
May-10-04 07:25 PM |
#53 |
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