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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-10-04 06:57 AM
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4. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood
A Brief Overview of Cycles

In recent weeks I have shown you how I use cycle high and low points to identify trend changes. I have recently received questions asking for more of an explanation about these methods. So, in todays WrapUp I will attempt to present a brief simplified explanation of just how cycles can be used as a very powerful technical tool once they are understood.

From a cyclical perspective, the trend is defined by the direction of the cycle of the next larger degree. This means that from a cyclical perspective we work in many different dimensions. The key is to isolate and study each cycle of each dimension so that the direction and expectation of these cycles can be known. The identification of these cycle lows is definitely outside of the scope of this brief overview, as it would take volumes of material to do this subject justice. All I want to do here is simply present the concept of using cycle highs and lows of various degrees to show you the concept of how we can work in the various dimensions to identify important turn points.


In my work with cycles I also use statistical analysis of the long and intermediate-term cycles to develop expectations that can be applied to future cycles. For example, history may show me that 89% of all long-term cycles, that advance for 6 months or more, hold above their previous long-term low as the correction into the next long-term low occurs. Further analysis of these long-term cycles with advances of 6 months or more is then done in order to find the average advance of this group of cycles. The same is done for the declines into the lows. Analysis of the long-term cycle may also reveal that when this cycle advances for 5 months or less, the previous cycle low has an 83% probability of declining below its previous low and that the average decline may be 39%. These numbers above are all arbitrary, but I present them to you as an example of just how the quantification of cyclical behavior can be used as a guide for future cycles. The key is to identify the cycle of each degree or dimension and then apply the historical norms to the cycle. Basically, this is nothing more than cycle profiling.
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  -STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 10 May ozymandius  May-10-04 06:43 AM   #0 
  - The spin for today is  Spentastic   May-10-04 06:50 AM   #1 
  - Yup, the economy  dusty64   May-10-04 06:52 AM   #2 
  - "This week"???  Frodo   May-10-04 08:36 AM   #11 
     - Or maybe "the first hour"??  Frodo   May-10-04 09:37 AM   #28 
        - looks like the psych barrier  salin   May-10-04 10:08 AM   #38 
  - It doesn't look like money will be flowing into the US markets.  ozymandius   May-10-04 06:54 AM   #3 
  - WrapUp by Tim W. Wood  ozymandius   May-10-04 06:57 AM   #4 
  - Storm Watch Update from Jim Puplava - ILLUSIONS  ozymandius   May-10-04 07:13 AM   #5 
  - I won't be around much today.  ozymandius   May-10-04 07:21 AM   #6 
  - Monday Moanin' Blues  JNelson6563   May-10-04 07:34 AM   #7 
  - daily dollar watch  UpInArms   May-10-04 07:53 AM   #8 
  - Dollar is up as the world wishes to get in on our prison business?  izzie   May-10-04 08:11 AM   #9 
  - "not consistent with a long rising trend in the dollar" - The missing fact  Frodo   May-10-04 08:44 AM   #13 
  - use of "out of context" quote, Frodo :)  UpInArms   May-10-04 08:54 AM   #15 
     - Of COURSE it was out of context,  Frodo   May-10-04 09:03 AM   #16 
        - looking at the US in isolation?  UpInArms   May-10-04 09:14 AM   #19 
           - "Isolation" in this case doesn't mean we "isolate ourselves"  Frodo   May-10-04 09:21 AM   #22 
              - I understand that you have  UpInArms   May-10-04 09:26 AM   # 
                 - Ahh. No thanks.  Frodo   May-10-04 09:36 AM   #27 
                    - I absolutely agree with Frodo....  54anickel   May-10-04 09:43 AM   #30 
                       - Seems reasonable.  Frodo   May-10-04 09:50 AM   #32 
  - Interesting take on the US$ - 'Worthless Dollar' Could Surge  54anickel   May-10-04 09:07 AM   #17 
  - Sooo. The Dollar's rise is a "Dead Cat Bounce"??  Frodo   May-10-04 09:57 AM   #34 
     - Deflation - I thought the numerous posts I made late last week made  54anickel   May-10-04 10:29 AM   #44 
     - This is the point I find so funny.  Frodo   May-10-04 10:54 AM   #48 
        - High gas prices are not inflation - correct. I think most here agree  54anickel   May-10-04 12:10 PM   #56 
     - Selling on a dead cat bounce and making money -  54anickel   May-10-04 10:44 AM   #46 
  - Gold at 6-and-a-half month low  54anickel   May-10-04 09:58 AM   #35 
     - And right about where it was mid-May 2003.  Frodo   May-10-04 10:08 AM   #37 
        - Touche! On the other hand, if you "invested" in the stock market  54anickel   May-10-04 12:36 PM   #57 
           - Well....  Frodo   May-10-04 01:06 PM   #63 
              - Much in the same way a savings deposit return is viewed in relation to  54anickel   May-10-04 01:25 PM   #64 
                 - US Dollar savings return vs. US inflation rate = valid  Frodo   May-10-04 01:55 PM   #68 
  - Market open - numbers at 9:32 EST  UpInArms   May-10-04 08:34 AM   #10 
  - "Market open - numbers at 8:32 EST"  ZR2   May-10-04 08:40 AM   #12 
     - sorry -  UpInArms   May-10-04 08:49 AM   #14 
  - Market numbers at 10:10 EST  UpInArms   May-10-04 09:12 AM   #18 
  - now under 10,000 at 10:18 EST  UpInArms   May-10-04 09:20 AM   #21 
  - Damn, knew I should have hit refresh! Look at the adv/dec numbers!  54anickel   May-10-04 09:23 AM   #25 
     - "Bagain hunters" right on time, trying to get back to 10K.  54anickel   May-10-04 09:26 AM   #26 
        - Just looking at the graphs of all three...  punpirate   May-10-04 09:37 AM   #29 
  - 10:17 and Dow 2.22 from hitting 10K  54anickel   May-10-04 09:22 AM   #23 
  - Slowly Unravelling!  54anickel   May-10-04 09:19 AM   #20 
  - The DOW just dipped below 10,000  deseo   May-10-04 09:22 AM   #24 
  - Here's a scary thought -  54anickel   May-10-04 09:47 AM   #31 
  - 10:50 update  54anickel   May-10-04 09:52 AM   #33 
  - I need to get my eyes checked. Did that say below 10,000 ?  nolabels   May-10-04 10:23 AM   #42 
  - Lemme get this straight  TrogL   May-10-04 10:06 AM   #36 
  - The last time I was here  jamesinca   May-10-04 10:15 AM   #39 
  - France says EU subsidy offer exceeds commission mandate  54anickel   May-10-04 10:16 AM   #40 
  - FOREX-Dollar powers higher vs yen, high yielders  54anickel   May-10-04 10:22 AM   #41 
  - DOW 11:26:46 AM 9,954.25 -163.09  spotbird   May-10-04 10:28 AM   #43 
  - DOW 11:34:50 AM 9,937.57 -179.77  spotbird   May-10-04 10:35 AM   #45 
  - Have to see what the "bargain hunters" can pull off over the lunch hour.  54anickel   May-10-04 10:46 AM   #47 
     - Lunch Buying Opportunties at 12:35 EST  UpInArms   May-10-04 11:38 AM   #52 
        - Check out the 12:30 blather -  54anickel   May-10-04 11:59 AM   #54 
           - We have "buying opportunities"!  UpInArms   May-10-04 12:06 PM   #55 
  - Market manipulation and its effects  54anickel   May-10-04 10:58 AM   #49 
  - Uh-oh. Piehole alert. Shrub on the tellie now. n/t  54anickel   May-10-04 11:01 AM   #50 
  - U.S. stocks tumble to year's lows on rate fears, Iraq  54anickel   May-10-04 11:25 AM   #51 
  - "STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 10 May"  dubyaD40web   May-10-04 11:43 AM   #53 
  - How many diehard bulls and Bushites will throw themselves on their pens...  Merlin   May-10-04 12:41 PM   #58 
  - 1:41 update - Bargain hunters have "temporarily" left the building  54anickel   May-10-04 12:43 PM   #59 
  - Advances & Declines  54anickel   May-10-04 12:48 PM   #60 
  - Will the news be dropped below 10,000 today?  nolabels   May-10-04 12:55 PM   #61 
  - hush up  Doosh   May-10-04 01:00 PM   #62 
  - UPDATE 1-Oil shares fall on Saudi call for more OPEC output  54anickel   May-10-04 01:36 PM   #65 
  - 2:38 numbers and blather  54anickel   May-10-04 01:40 PM   #66 
  - Isn't this the strangest gold chart? Seems all "roads" seem to  54anickel   May-10-04 01:44 PM   #67 
  - You can't see that .10 gap???  Frodo   May-10-04 02:08 PM   #69 
  - DOW 3:31:02 PM 9,949.99 -167.35 n/t  spotbird   May-10-04 02:31 PM   #70 
  - 3:33 update  54anickel   May-10-04 02:35 PM   #71 
  - Euro shares fall on oil prices  54anickel   May-10-04 02:39 PM   #72 
  - Stocks on Way to Finishing Session With Steep Loses  54anickel   May-10-04 02:45 PM   #73 
  - The beautiful balloon.  RUMMYisFROSTED   May-10-04 02:49 PM   #74 
     - HA! I prefer the old nursery rhyme....  54anickel   May-10-04 02:59 PM   #78 
  - Emerging markets fears widen  54anickel   May-10-04 02:51 PM   #75 
  - Memory check here.........  ewagner   May-10-04 03:21 PM   #81 
     - You're asking for a memory check by someone who readily suffers  54anickel   May-10-04 05:03 PM   #82 
  - UPDATE 1-U.S. Treasury's Snow-no worry on inflation, rates  54anickel   May-10-04 02:53 PM   #76 
  - More from Snow....  54anickel   May-10-04 03:04 PM   #79 
  - Help! AHHHHH! Down down down down down  Chicago Democrat   May-10-04 02:57 PM   #77 
  - The Cassandras and the Optimists  54anickel   May-10-04 03:16 PM   #80 
  - Closing numbers & blather  54anickel   May-10-04 05:15 PM   #83 
  - Maybe foreign stockholders got wind of the rumsfeld praising by *  loudsue   May-10-04 06:27 PM   #84 
  - That would be my take on it also  nolabels   May-10-04 09:27 PM   #87 
  - Well it was a bloody day  JNelson6563   May-10-04 06:35 PM   #85 
     - Ahhh, thanks Julie. I'm blushing. Hey the futures look pretty rosy  54anickel   May-10-04 08:43 PM   #86 
  - I would be found in dereliction of my bearish posting duties if I let this  54anickel   May-10-04 09:45 PM   #88 

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