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Reply #117: Not the benefits themselves, but the unemployment rates reported by states and local entities [View All]

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No Elephants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-03-11 03:06 AM
Response to Reply #47
117. Not the benefits themselves, but the unemployment rates reported by states and local entities
Edited on Sat Dec-03-11 03:33 AM by No Elephants
figure into the BLS's calculations and those applying for/collecting unemployment benefits probably weigh heavily in the reports from state and local entities.

Looking at what the BLS actually does use to arrive at its numbers makes it fairly clear that there is room for a lot of bs in the figures anyway, so I am not sure why we treat small deviations as significant.

See also

"Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment, the Government uses the number of persons filing claims for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under State or Federal Government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed."

"complete," of course, being the key word, hence my bolding. Put another way, the BLS does use that unemployment benefit claim info, along with other info.
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  -Unemployment rate falls to lowest since March 2009 dipsydoodle  Dec-02-11 07:37 AM   #0 
  - I should be really happy for those who are working... and I am  OKNancy   Dec-02-11 07:51 AM   #1 
  - With the number of new weekly claims edging above 400K for  coalition_unwilling   Dec-02-11 08:31 AM   #2 
  - Shhhh. Facts only spoil the celebration.  No Elephants   Dec-02-11 09:08 AM   #24 
  - Serious question  Yupster   Dec-02-11 09:54 AM   #39 
  - Definition of discouraged worker  pinqy   Dec-02-11 10:03 AM   #43 
  - Actually,  chervilant   Dec-02-11 11:46 AM   #68 
  - Sorry to hear your circumstances. Hope things improve for you in 2012.  Divernan   Dec-02-11 12:11 PM   #74 
  - Thank you so much!  chervilant   Dec-03-11 10:01 PM   #133 
  - I'm so sorry.  Beacool   Dec-02-11 12:39 PM   #76 
  - Hugs  chervilant   Dec-03-11 10:02 PM   #134 
     - You are very welcome.  Beacool   Dec-04-11 09:54 AM   #149 
  - So very sorry. Wishing something turns for you.  No Elephants   Dec-03-11 02:17 AM   #108 
     - Actually,  chervilant   Dec-03-11 10:05 PM   #135 
        - Thank you for telling me that. I am so glad that you found something positive.  No Elephants   Dec-04-11 04:59 AM   #137 
  - My brother in law  nadinbrzezinski   Dec-02-11 12:43 PM   #77 
  - Or a 33-year old who after 2 years of looking for work  Doctor_J   Dec-02-11 01:30 PM   #82 
  - No.  No Elephants   Dec-03-11 02:13 AM   #107 
  - You are correct. Yet a lot of people at DU will jump on this as "good news"  totodeinhere   Dec-02-11 11:21 AM   #63 
  - HAHAHAHAHAHA.  tabasco   Dec-02-11 10:01 PM   #98 
     - Deleted message  Name removed   Dec-02-11 10:55 PM   #101 
     - 120,000 jobs, but 315,000 stopped looking, so the unemployment rate only APPEARED to go down.  No Elephants   Dec-03-11 02:20 AM   #109 
     - Yes, it's much better when the unemployment rate goes up!  tabasco   Dec-03-11 08:47 AM   #125 
        - No, it's much better when the real unemployment rate goes down. That isn't happening. n/t  totodeinhere   Dec-03-11 01:05 PM   #127 
        - In your world, what does "only APPEARED to go down" mean?  No Elephants   Dec-04-11 04:54 AM   #136 
     - There was no spin involved. Just look at the statistics about what really happened. n/t  totodeinhere   Dec-03-11 01:04 PM   #126 
     - O, Goodie!  chervilant   Dec-04-11 08:47 AM   #146 
  - If anyone has noticed, we're getting a lot of "cheery" news ... while the opposite seems to be  defendandprotect   Dec-03-11 12:04 AM   #105 
  - kick  jpak   Dec-02-11 08:41 AM   #3 
  - Unemployment rate falls to 8.6% in November; payroll employment rises by 120,000  mahatmakanejeeves   Dec-02-11 08:42 AM   #4 
  - Prior to an election, I'm not surprised to see unemplyment fall and the stock market go up  DaveJ   Dec-02-11 08:42 AM   #5 
  - I don't think actual unemployment has fallen. What the feds report is a different  No Elephants   Dec-03-11 02:21 AM   #110 
     - Define actual unemployment. All U rates declined  dmallind   Dec-03-11 09:33 PM   #132 
        - According to which underlying data, though?  No Elephants   Dec-04-11 05:07 AM   #138 
           - I've seen 117 and I REstate - local reports are not reflected, at all, in BLS rates  dmallind   Dec-05-11 12:43 PM   #150 
  - So the republicans stopping Obama idea  Turbineguy   Dec-02-11 08:42 AM   #6 
  - You might want to read the entire thread. It has some pretty good info.  No Elephants   Dec-03-11 02:23 AM   #111 
  - its probably just seasonal jobs. after jan, youll see the UE back up n/t  JesterCS   Dec-02-11 08:42 AM   #7 
  - boo hoo hoo  jpak   Dec-02-11 08:42 AM   #8 
  - You may want to read the thread. But only if you want facts.  No Elephants   Dec-02-11 09:18 AM   #31 
  - I'm glad to see you are consistent with this nonsense across more than just the gungeon subforum.  AtheistCrusader   Dec-02-11 10:27 AM   #54 
     - Supposedly, the stat is adjusted for seasonal factors, but this thread has several very good posts  No Elephants   Dec-03-11 02:30 AM   #112 
  - The adjusted and non-adjusted rates are in A-15. Nonadjusted is even better  dmallind   Dec-02-11 10:06 AM   #45 
     - Please read the thread.  No Elephants   Dec-03-11 02:37 AM   #113 
        - Please tell me what I missed. My statement is 100% accurate.  dmallind   Dec-03-11 09:30 PM   #131 
           - Again, please read the thread.  No Elephants   Dec-04-11 05:24 AM   #140 
              - Already have. Again what did I miss or get wrong? Can you not spell it out, or just not find it?  dmallind   Dec-05-11 03:00 PM   #151 
  - EVERY measure in A-15 improved though....  dmallind   Dec-02-11 10:04 AM   #44 
  - And watch it magically jump back to 9% come January...  Jon Ace   Dec-02-11 11:51 PM   #104 
  - Breaking News: Unemployment rate falls to 8.6% in November  Javaman   Dec-02-11 08:43 AM   #9 
  - Holiday hiring?  No Elephants   Dec-02-11 08:43 AM   #10 
  - I don't think that would show up yet.  bigworld   Dec-02-11 08:43 AM   #11 
  - Not in results for November? Why not?  No Elephants   Dec-02-11 08:43 AM   #15 
     - Seasonal hiring WOULD show up in November, and BLS stats are...  MarkCharles   Dec-02-11 08:46 AM   #17 
        - Thanks.  No Elephants   Dec-03-11 02:47 AM   #114 
  - added 120,000 new jobs  INdemo   Dec-02-11 08:43 AM   #12 
  - website is crashed  bigworld   Dec-02-11 08:43 AM   #13 
  - The numbers for holiday hiring are not included into this...  SKKY   Dec-02-11 10:20 AM   #50 
  - I blame Obama for this horrible news  jpak   Dec-02-11 08:43 AM   #14 
  - Oh yeah - no doom for you  jpak   Dec-02-11 08:43 AM   #16 
     - Talking to yourself on a message board? 300,000 stopped looking.  No Elephants   Dec-02-11 09:08 AM   #23 
        - And they are included in U-6 which also declined.  dmallind   Dec-02-11 10:07 AM   #46 
           - That is not surprising, given the economy of last three years. If 315,000  No Elephants   Dec-03-11 02:53 AM   #115 
              - What about the 378000 no longer PT but wanting FT?  dmallind   Dec-03-11 09:25 PM   #128 
  - Lol  Muskypundit   Dec-02-11 09:48 AM   #36 
  - wait, three times as many people gave up looking as were hired?  phantom power   Dec-02-11 08:49 AM   #18 
  - Almost. About 300,000 gave up looking and 120, 000 jobs were added.  No Elephants   Dec-02-11 09:05 AM   #22 
  - I remember how the Bush administration used to  INdemo   Dec-02-11 09:51 AM   #37 
  - Never happened. Benefits have ZERO impact on the unemployment rate.  dmallind   Dec-02-11 10:08 AM   #47 
     - The myth that dropping off unemployment means you aren't counted  hugo_from_TN   Dec-02-11 01:49 PM   #89 
     - Please see Reply 117,  No Elephants   Dec-03-11 03:08 AM   #118 
     - Reply 117 proves what I said  dmallind   Dec-05-11 03:02 PM   #152 
     - I know - Koresh knows why when it's corrected many times every month. nt  dmallind   Dec-03-11 09:28 PM   #130 
     - Not the benefits themselves, but the unemployment rates reported by states and local entities  No Elephants   Dec-03-11 03:06 AM   #117 
        - No they do not - the methodology is in the link  dmallind   Dec-03-11 09:27 PM   #129 
           - ? One of the links cites several sources of info used, of which a survey is only one.  No Elephants   Dec-04-11 05:21 AM   #139 
              - Bullshit - the BLS data is ONLY survey-based. They mention other REPORTS that use benefits  dmallind   Dec-05-11 03:03 PM   #153 
  - +1000, thank you for being a voice of reason  stockholmer   Dec-02-11 11:15 AM   #61 
     - Agree. If we were using the same measures we used during the Depression,  No Elephants   Dec-03-11 02:58 AM   #116 
  - baby boomers retiring. n/t  taught_me_patience   Dec-02-11 09:29 AM   #33 
     - Somehow, I don't think so.  No Elephants   Dec-04-11 05:30 AM   #141 
  - Some additional numbers:  FreedomVoice   Dec-02-11 08:53 AM   #19 
  - Welcome to DU.  No Elephants   Dec-02-11 09:14 AM   #28 
  - Ha-ha, thanks, I didn't expect "way to go" but I may have been a bit  FreedomVoice   Dec-02-11 11:14 AM   #60 
     - You're welcome!  No Elephants   Dec-04-11 05:34 AM   #142 
  - welcome to du........  madrchsod   Dec-02-11 09:20 AM   #32 
  - Thanks!!! n/t  FreedomVoice   Dec-02-11 11:17 AM   #62 
  - I'm with you  SixthSense   Dec-02-11 09:34 AM   #34 
  - Hey thanks for stopping by.  demgrrrll   Dec-02-11 09:54 AM   #40 
  - You have to caveat that.  pinqy   Dec-02-11 11:09 AM   #59 
     - Did it last month?  No Elephants   Dec-04-11 05:43 AM   #143 
  - GOPers love to cook books.  lonestarnot   Dec-02-11 08:56 AM   #20 
  - I'm so glad to know people are happily employed and making decent wages  tawadi   Dec-02-11 09:02 AM   #21 
  - The Republican jaws dropped even lower nt  cmd   Dec-02-11 09:09 AM   #25 
  - numbers are a fraud  SixthSense   Dec-02-11 09:11 AM   #26 
  - +1  NorthCarolina   Dec-02-11 09:13 AM   #27 
  - As a former business partner of mine used to say "figure lie and liars figure."  No Elephants   Dec-02-11 09:17 AM   #30 
  - Absolutely.  jeanmarc   Dec-02-11 10:23 AM   #52 
  - Don't worry, the GOP ...  Cigar11   Dec-02-11 09:16 AM   #29 
  - Let the super duper manipulation begin!  Safetykitten   Dec-02-11 09:38 AM   #35 
  - I don't know who is more disappointed in this news, the GOP  Itchinjim   Dec-02-11 09:52 AM   #38 
  - I'll go with the DU doom and gloomers.  demgrrrll   Dec-02-11 09:55 AM   #41 
  - hmm...  chervilant   Dec-04-11 08:51 AM   #147 
  - Ah yes, the DUgds. That's us, you nailed it right there. Yes you did.  Safetykitten   Dec-02-11 10:18 AM   #49 
  - Glad that you are not bitter about things, like the other doom and gloomers.  geckosfeet   Dec-02-11 10:48 AM   #57 
  - I always like to be on the sunny side of the street, like this report.  Safetykitten   Dec-02-11 11:07 AM   #58 
  - AMEN! You speak for me and many, many other Americans.  Divernan   Dec-02-11 12:03 PM   #73 
  - I have been doing that exact job for close to 13 years  Occulus   Dec-04-11 09:18 AM   #148 
  - +1  paulk   Dec-02-11 01:40 PM   #88 
  - Some here would complain if the unemployment rate were 4%  Democat   Dec-03-11 01:18 AM   #106 
  - Denial often makes folks happier. In fact, that's often why they choose it.  No Elephants   Dec-03-11 03:14 AM   #120 
  - Congratulations to those that found jobs. eom.  Hotler   Dec-02-11 09:57 AM   #42 
  - I guess I will look like a part of these "good statistics" when my UI is up in January!  DollyM   Dec-02-11 10:18 AM   #48 
  - unemployment in my area is UP, not down!  DollyM   Dec-02-11 10:22 AM   #51 
  - The unemployment numbers have nothing to do with unemployment insurance payments.  hugo_from_TN   Dec-02-11 01:54 PM   #90 
     - how do they know you are seeking employment if you aren't getting unemployment?  DollyM   Dec-02-11 03:56 PM   #95 
     - They's a survey, not a count. n/t  pinqy   Dec-02-11 09:56 PM   #97 
     - Do you have a link?  No Elephants   Dec-03-11 03:11 AM   #119 
  - Good News  Johnny2X2X   Dec-02-11 10:24 AM   #53 
  - just don't look behind the curtain  Skittles   Dec-02-11 10:37 AM   #55 
  - That's because, behind the curtain, you will find,,,,  SmittynMo   Dec-02-11 11:55 AM   #70 
     - yes  Skittles   Dec-02-11 10:51 PM   #99 
  - Ya have to know how to "read" numbers  zipplewrath   Dec-02-11 10:47 AM   #56 
  - This thread contains a lot of good info about the BLS numbers.  No Elephants   Dec-03-11 03:22 AM   #122 
  - Rick Scott Governor of Florida is already taking credit - he wants to break unions  2Design   Dec-02-11 11:26 AM   #64 
  - "More than 1/2 of falling rate was result of people dropping out of the labor force."  Divernan   Dec-02-11 11:37 AM   #65 
  - According to the BLS website, the survey of households (who is surveyed, btw?) is only  No Elephants   Dec-03-11 03:19 AM   #121 
  - Of note,  chervilant   Dec-02-11 11:37 AM   #66 
  - Unemployment rate falls to lowest since March 2009  sc518387   Dec-02-11 11:41 AM   #67 
  - Teenagers should be in school  julian09   Dec-02-11 01:36 PM   #85 
  - I suspect the Black Caucus reminds him. (And I loves me some members of the  No Elephants   Dec-04-11 05:49 AM   #144 
  - But,,,,,  SmittynMo   Dec-02-11 11:53 AM   #69 
  - Yes, it includes people looking for work who have run out of benefits.  hugo_from_TN   Dec-02-11 01:56 PM   #91 
     - I am not a part of the numbers  SmittynMo   Dec-02-11 11:29 PM   #103 
     - It woudl be very interesting to know whom BLS DOES survey every month and how they know  No Elephants   Dec-03-11 03:40 AM   #124 
     - No, it is not a myth. Please see Reply 117 and the BLS website generally.  No Elephants   Dec-03-11 03:38 AM   #123 
  - sure it did  fascisthunter   Dec-02-11 11:59 AM   #71 
  - Get that shit outta here! This is DU dammit!  cottonseed   Dec-02-11 11:59 AM   #72 
  - The numbers are somewhat disingenuous  Beacool   Dec-02-11 12:35 PM   #75 
  - I don't see how those two graphs can be spun as good news by ANYONE  Doctor_J   Dec-02-11 01:32 PM   #84 
     - Yep, that it is............  Beacool   Dec-02-11 02:49 PM   #92 
  - for what a real economist say 's about the report  wobblie   Dec-02-11 12:46 PM   #78 
  - In SPITE of repug interference.  louis-t   Dec-02-11 01:16 PM   # 
  - In SPITE of repug interference.  louis-t   Dec-02-11 01:16 PM   #79 
  - That is all happy horse shit. Most of it is form the size of the labor pool shrinking..  pam4water   Dec-02-11 01:28 PM   #80 
  - The labor force has been shrinking since around year 2000.  DCBob   Dec-02-11 05:10 PM   #96 
  - I don't get these numbers. Every day it's different news  Doctor_J   Dec-02-11 01:29 PM   #81 
  - HELLO  Skittles   Dec-02-11 10:52 PM   #100 
  - Much as I'm ready for some good news  DFW   Dec-02-11 01:32 PM   #83 
  - I like this one.  Kingofalldems   Dec-02-11 01:37 PM   #86 
  - Someone is frightened enough to turn the trillions they have been holding  nineteen50   Dec-02-11 01:38 PM   #87 
  - This thread illustrates to me that any number...  LanternWaste   Dec-02-11 03:03 PM   #93 
  - K & R  Scurrilous   Dec-02-11 03:35 PM   #94 
  - Good news. I think the people giving up..  mvd   Dec-02-11 11:15 PM   #102 
  - Not another political propaganda  demicritic   Dec-04-11 07:18 AM   #145 

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