You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login

Reply #38: Barry Ritholtz: No, Black Friday Sales Were Not Up 16% (not even 6%) [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
Home » Discuss » Latest Breaking News Donate to DU
DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-28-11 08:26 AM
Response to Reply #36
38. Barry Ritholtz: No, Black Friday Sales Were Not Up 16% (not even 6%)

11/28/11 No, Black Friday Sales Were Not Up 16% (not even 6%)

If its the Monday after Black Friday, then its national hype the fabricated data day! Every year around this time, we get a series of loose reports coincident with Black Friday and the holiday weekend. Each year, they are wildly optimistic. And like clockwork, the media idiotically repeats these trade organizations spin like its gospel. When the data finally comes in, we learn that the early reports were pure hokum, put out by trade groups to create shopping hype. (Yes, the Media ALWAYS screws the pooch big time on this one, with the occasional exception). Lets start with this whopper from an utterly breathless press release from the National Retail Federation:

No, retail sales did not climb 16%. Surveys where people forecast their own future spending are, as we have seen repeatedly in the past, pretty much worthless.

We actually have no idea just yet as to whether, and exactly how much, sales climbed. The data simply is not in yet. The most you can accurately say is according to some foot traffic measurements, more people appeared to be in stores on Black Friday 2011 than in 2010.

Another absurd example: Does any one actually believe nearly one-quarter (24.4%) of Black Friday shoppers were at the stores by midnight on Black Friday? Perhaps the NRF competing with the NAR for title of most ridiculous trade group.

Next up is ShopperTrak, who claimed a 6.6% gain in sales:

What is the basis of that 6.6% gain? ShopperTrak uses equipment installed in stores to measure traffic. But that does not measure changes in window shoppers vs buyers from year to year, how much money and or credit people have, how large their holiday budgets are, or how much they are willing to spend. It is a very poor system for forecasting actual sales.

The fact that NRF and ShopperTrak are so widely disparate confirms for us at least one of their methodologies are suspect. In my opinion, both are mostly meaningless.

Here is my challenge to the CEOs of the National Retail Federation and ShopperTrak: $1,000 to the charity of the winners choice that your forecasts for Black Friday, the Thanksgiving weekend and the entire holiday shopping season are wildly off. I bet you your forecasts miss the mark by at least 10%-20% (though I believe its closer to 40-50%).

more... /

Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
  -STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday, November 28, 2011 Pale Blue Dot  Nov-28-11 06:06 AM   #0 
  - Today's Report  Pale Blue Dot   Nov-28-11 06:07 AM   #1 
  - New U.S. home sales at 307,000 rate in October  Roland99   Nov-28-11 09:30 AM   #42 
  - September sales revised down to 303,000 rate  Roland99   Nov-28-11 09:30 AM   #43 
  - Oil rises above $99 in Asia as stock markets gain  Pale Blue Dot   Nov-28-11 06:08 AM   #2 
  - I paid $3.04 yesterday  Demeter   Nov-28-11 07:26 AM   #20 
     - And I thought my $3.51/gal this morning was a good deal!!  Juneboarder   Nov-28-11 12:22 PM   #51 
        - You must be in California, Hawaii or Guam  Demeter   Nov-28-11 01:26 PM   #66 
        - What do you call a waffle all covered in sand???  Juneboarder   Nov-28-11 01:43 PM   #72 
        - $2.97 here in Houston....  AnneD   Nov-28-11 01:49 PM   #74 
  - All better now! U.S. Stock-Index Futures Gain on Europe Optimism, Surge in Holiday Sales  Pale Blue Dot   Nov-28-11 06:10 AM   #3 
  - Europe stocks rise on hopes for debt-crisis action  Roland99   Nov-28-11 06:13 AM   #5 
  - Global economic recovery petering out: OECD  xchrom   Nov-28-11 06:27 AM   #8 
  - DOW futures +244  DemReadingDU   Nov-28-11 07:08 AM   #16 
     - That's hilarioius ...  bread_and_roses   Nov-28-11 07:22 AM   #19 
        - I'm glad you said it...  CoffeeCat   Nov-28-11 02:31 PM   #79 
  - If they think they can stop worrying about Europe  Demeter   Nov-28-11 07:28 AM   #21 
  - IIRC, last years record "Black Friday" sales  Po_d Mainiac   Nov-28-11 08:18 AM   #36 
     - Barry Ritholtz: No, Black Friday Sales Were Not Up 16% (not even 6%)  DemReadingDU   Nov-28-11 08:26 AM   #38 
        - Local Snewz had been hyping every day ie  kickysnana   Nov-28-11 09:19 AM   #40 
        - Ayuh  Po_d Mainiac   Nov-28-11 09:23 AM   #41 
           - Foot traffic is good....  AnneD   Nov-28-11 10:27 AM   #46 
              - My God! You'd Better Report in Frequently  Demeter   Nov-28-11 12:20 PM   #50 
              - Weekend access to the internet is a bit spotty....  AnneD   Nov-28-11 01:01 PM   #55 
              - There are problems using a Pistol for self defense  happyslug   Nov-28-11 01:14 PM   # 
              - Two second rule...  AnneD   Nov-28-11 01:35 PM   #70 
              - The "Two Second Rule" is a rule of body physics NOT the law  happyslug   Nov-28-11 01:42 PM   #71 
                 - Yes...  AnneD   Nov-28-11 02:08 PM   #77 
              - Thank you for the lesson  Demeter   Nov-28-11 01:44 PM   #73 
                 - MP here also, Demeter  Tansy_Gold   Nov-28-11 03:25 PM   #82 
                    - Doggies  DemReadingDU   Nov-28-11 07:54 PM   #96 
                       - I have four already!  Tansy_Gold   Nov-28-11 08:28 PM   #98 
                       - I have used dogs for years....  AnneD   Nov-29-11 08:09 AM   #99 
              - Duplicate post  happyslug   Nov-28-11 01:14 PM   #58 
  - good morning -- i hope every one had a good holiday weekend?  xchrom   Nov-28-11 06:12 AM   #4 
  - Good morning, x. I'm barely alive  Demeter   Nov-28-11 07:32 AM   #24 
  - i was wondering how things went.  xchrom   Nov-28-11 07:36 AM   #26 
     - Thanks, Same to You!  Demeter   Nov-28-11 08:16 AM   #34 
  - Final pre-Christmas art show Sunday  Tansy_Gold   Nov-28-11 09:50 AM   #44 
     - thanks for letting us know.  xchrom   Nov-28-11 11:00 AM   #48 
     - Your things are so pretty.....  AnneD   Nov-28-11 01:10 PM   #56 
        - Thank you!  Tansy_Gold   Nov-28-11 03:28 PM   #83 
  - south asia: Sensex rallies 472 points on global cues; regains 16K level  xchrom   Nov-28-11 06:14 AM   #6 
  - FDI in retail: Global retailers in wait and watch mode  xchrom   Nov-28-11 06:25 AM   #7 
  - Gold, silver surge on seasonal demand, firm global trend  xchrom   Nov-28-11 06:42 AM   #13 
  - europe: International Monetary Fund denies Italy loan talks  xchrom   Nov-28-11 06:30 AM   #9 
  - China eyes UK infrastructure investment to boost growth  xchrom   Nov-28-11 06:32 AM   #10 
  - UK economy forecast cut by BCC for fourth time  xchrom   Nov-28-11 06:33 AM   #11 
  - Germany heading for isolation over European Central Bank euro rescue role  xchrom   Nov-28-11 06:40 AM   #12 
  - The crash that has rocked Lithuania  xchrom   Nov-28-11 06:44 AM   #14 
  - If other nations can arrest banksters  Demeter   Nov-28-11 07:34 AM   #25 
     - it's a wonder, isn't it? nt  xchrom   Nov-28-11 07:37 AM   #27 
     - Because in the US  Turbineguy   Nov-28-11 07:41 AM   #29 
     - It's STILL not legal--they just bought up the courts and the regulators  Demeter   Nov-28-11 08:17 AM   #35 
     - Because the financial crisis of 2008 was....  Hotler   Nov-28-11 10:35 AM   #47 
  - Retailers facing gloomy Christmas  xchrom   Nov-28-11 07:07 AM   #15 
  - So...  AnneD   Nov-28-11 01:17 PM   #61 
  - Pensioner expats continue to leave the UK and more claim the Winter Fuel Payment  xchrom   Nov-28-11 08:03 AM   #30 
  - Look for this as a new way ....  AnneD   Nov-28-11 09:55 AM   #45 
  - Regions to shore up finances with drastic 2012 budget cuts  xchrom   Nov-28-11 08:07 AM   #31 
  - Plan to tap pension cash to help ailing economy  xchrom   Nov-28-11 08:09 AM   #32 
  - asia: Predictions of an economic collapse in China are in vogue  xchrom   Nov-28-11 07:10 AM   #17 
  - Chinese factories hit by strikes amid manufacturing slowdown  xchrom   Nov-28-11 07:13 AM   #18 
  - Uppity Chinese workers.  Hotler   Nov-28-11 11:17 AM   #49 
     - Proving once again that Workers are Fast Learners  Demeter   Nov-28-11 12:25 PM   #52 
  - Nikkei climbs on US holiday sales, Italy aid hopes  xchrom   Nov-28-11 08:52 AM   #39 
     - Are people stupid?  CoffeeCat   Nov-28-11 02:39 PM   #80 
        - Markets haven't been very reality-based for quite some time now,  Ghost Dog   Nov-28-11 04:38 PM   #86 
  - Zyngas Tough Culture Risks a Talent Drain  xchrom   Nov-28-11 07:28 AM   #22 
  - Two Wall Street Titans, and a Seven-Year Tiff  xchrom   Nov-28-11 07:31 AM   #23 
  - Republicans Try to Starve Wall Street Watchdog: William D. Cohan  Turbineguy   Nov-28-11 07:39 AM   #28 
  - Secret Fed Loans Gave Banks Undisclosed $13B  Demeter   Nov-28-11 08:14 AM   #33 
  - Deutsche Bank Could Transfer Financial Contagion  Demeter   Nov-28-11 08:24 AM   #37 
  - FUCKERS! n/t  Hotler   Nov-28-11 12:41 PM   #54 
  - I Guess 11,500 Is the New 12,000  Demeter   Nov-28-11 12:28 PM   #53 
  - Fascinating History of How Corporations Became "People" -- Thanks to Corrupt Courts Working for 1%  Demeter   Nov-28-11 01:12 PM   #57 
  - Looking Beyond Election Day by: Robert Reich  Demeter   Nov-28-11 01:15 PM   #59 
  - The November 30 Strike: Will Britain Shutdown?  Demeter   Nov-28-11 01:17 PM   #60 
  - The Obama Spending Non-Surge Paul Krugman  Demeter   Nov-28-11 01:20 PM   #62 
  - Jean Pisani-Ferry: Eurozone is on the way to fiscal union (HE WISHES)  Demeter   Nov-28-11 01:22 PM   #63 
  - It's certainly on the (slow-moving) agenda, Demeter. n/t  Ghost Dog   Nov-28-11 04:45 PM   #87 
     - It Will NEVER Happen  Demeter   Nov-28-11 06:13 PM   #92 
  - Investment bankers move in on Iraq  Demeter   Nov-28-11 01:23 PM   #64 
  - Greeces statistics chief faces criminal probe  Demeter   Nov-28-11 01:24 PM   #65 
  - Europes banks feel funding freeze  Demeter   Nov-28-11 01:29 PM   #67 
  - China eyes western infrastructure  Demeter   Nov-28-11 01:30 PM   #68 
  - OECD warns of eurozone contagion risk  Demeter   Nov-28-11 01:31 PM   #69 
  - Members Of Congress Grow Wealthier Despite Recession By Luke Johnson (IMAGINE THAT!)  Demeter   Nov-28-11 01:54 PM   #75 
  - Raw Materials Topping Equities With Economic Expansion Intact  Demeter   Nov-28-11 02:05 PM   #76 
  - MF Global customers taking case to Washington  Demeter   Nov-28-11 02:10 PM   #78 
  - Where have the MF Global customers been the last....  Hotler   Nov-28-11 03:09 PM   #81 
  - How much different than a slot machine?  RUMMYisFROSTED   Nov-28-11 03:46 PM   #84 
  - Better odds,  hamerfan   Nov-28-11 03:59 PM   #85 
  - I used to say it was easier to bet accurately on financial markets  Ghost Dog   Nov-28-11 04:56 PM   #88 
     - are you a TB fan, GD?  bread_and_roses   Nov-28-11 05:17 PM   #89 
        - Um... hang on  Ghost Dog   Nov-28-11 05:50 PM   #90 
           - I'm guessing TB as in....  Hotler   Nov-28-11 06:18 PM   #93 
              - Ah. Good observation.  Ghost Dog   Nov-28-11 06:38 PM   #95 
  - I Think that Little Last "Goose" of the DOW at the last minute is cute  Demeter   Nov-28-11 06:12 PM   #91 
     - "Cute", she says. Loaded term.  Ghost Dog   Nov-28-11 06:20 PM   #94 
        - +10  lonestarnot   Nov-28-11 08:03 PM   #97 

Home » Discuss » Latest Breaking News Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators

Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC