Reply #13: This market is overpriced; prices are based on hope and greed, not numbers.

[Psephos]

Only suckers buy at a market top.

The medium-term outlook is for static high unemployment, declining competitiveness exacerbated by likely trade wars, astonishing deficits that raise the price of capital for industry (and so, retard investment in new facilities and product development), and inflation.

The forecast for commodities, on the other hand, looks positive, possibly even wildly so, if inflation really kicks in. China already understands that, and is cornering strategic metals and industrial commodities around the world, as quietly as possible.

If I held stocks or stock-based mutual funds, I'd strongly consider moving a hefty fraction - a third or half - into bond funds holding special "inflation-proof" govt. bonds, and into mutual funds that own the stocks of companies that either supply commodities, or stand to profit handsomely when commodities rise.

My opinion, nothing more or less.