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Reply #102: Mike Larson: Three market developments keeping me up at night [View All]

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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-27-09 02:26 PM
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102. Mike Larson: Three market developments keeping me up at night

2/27/09 Three market developments keeping me up at night by Mike Larson

Im a worrier by nature. I cant help it. My job is to peer around the corner, figure out whats next, and most importantly, discern what can really go WRONG in the economy and the markets.

And right now, I see three troubling developments that are keeping me up at night. These problems arent front-page news yet. But they are circling in the background and threatening to explode into the headlines derailing the market in the process. I suggest you sit up and take notice. I sure am.

Troubling Development #1
Credit quality is worsening and Im not talking about home mortgages or credit cards
more...

Troubling Development #2
Eastern Europe melting down
more...

Troubling Development #3
Rapid deterioration in commercial real estate continues apace
more...

more
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/three-market-development...
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  -STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday February 27 ozymandius  Feb-27-09 04:38 AM   #0 
  - Market WrapUp  ozymandius   Feb-27-09 04:44 AM   #1 
  - What Cheerful News!  Demeter   Feb-27-09 06:32 AM   #18 
  - And, she does try to put a more positive spin at the end....  KoKo   Feb-27-09 09:00 AM   #66 
  - Them too?  Hugin   Feb-27-09 08:02 AM   #44 
  - Today's Reports  ozymandius   Feb-27-09 04:46 AM   #2 
  - Preliminary Q4 GDP.. -6.2%!! Consumption -4.3%. Durables -22%; DJIA futures near 7000  Roland99   Feb-27-09 07:31 AM   #34 
  - U.S. GDP revised to decline of 6.2% in fourth quarter  Roland99   Feb-27-09 07:34 AM   #35 
  - U.S. 4Q GDP revised lower to -6.2% annual vs -3.8% initially  UpInArms   Feb-27-09 07:34 AM   #36 
  - UMichigan consumer sentiment falls to 56.3 in Feb: report  UpInArms   Feb-27-09 09:09 AM   #72 
  - U.S. consumers' mood sours in February: survey  UpInArms   Feb-27-09 09:15 AM   #74 
  - Actually, I think it's up.  KayLaw   Feb-27-09 09:20 AM   #77 
     - here's the poop from the Reuters article  UpInArms   Feb-27-09 09:29 AM   #79 
        - Ah!  KayLaw   Feb-27-09 09:52 AM   #80 
  - Chicago PMI @ 34.2  UpInArms   Feb-27-09 09:11 AM   #73 
  - Oil dips after rally on signs of renewed demand  ozymandius   Feb-27-09 04:48 AM   #3 
  - Federal agency opens investigation into oil sale  ozymandius   Feb-27-09 04:50 AM   #4 
  - That Sounds Illegal on Its Face  Demeter   Feb-27-09 06:35 AM   #20 
  - Adam Smith warned that monopolists would try to manipulate the market,  tclambert   Feb-27-09 07:17 AM   #26 
  - Obama budget proposes shift to green energy  ozymandius   Feb-27-09 04:54 AM   #5 
  - That may be a good start, but global warming is here to stay.  tclambert   Feb-27-09 07:44 AM   #38 
  - Is Demand Up Because Gas Prices Dropped 30 Cents this Week?  Demeter   Feb-27-09 06:33 AM   #19 
  - And Back Up to 1.95 Today!  Demeter   Feb-27-09 10:36 AM   #86 
  - April crude down $1.83, or 4%, to $43.39 a barrel on Globex  UpInArms   Feb-27-09 07:28 AM   #32 
  - Economy likely suffered deeper contraction  ozymandius   Feb-27-09 04:57 AM   #6 
  - Debt: 02/25/2009 10,837,499,231,127.11 (DOWN 5,855,827,733.80) (Small.)  Festivito   Feb-27-09 04:58 AM   #7 
  - Debt: 02/26/2009 10,881,159,722,022.36 (UP 43,660,490,895.25) (Up 48.)  Festivito   Feb-28-09 12:38 PM   #121 
  - World stocks mostly lower as economic fears weigh  ozymandius   Feb-27-09 05:01 AM   #8 
  - U.S. workers on jobless benefits at record high  ozymandius   Feb-27-09 05:03 AM   #9 
  - One point that  burf   Feb-27-09 07:24 AM   #29 
     - Here's a link to an explanation of alternative unemployment measurements  tclambert   Feb-27-09 08:47 AM   #60 
        - Thank you for the explanation  burf   Feb-27-09 10:35 AM   #83 
  - Citigroup to Be Asked by U.S. to Get Private Capital (Update2)  ozymandius   Feb-27-09 05:08 AM   #10 
  - U.S. takes big stake in Citi  UpInArms   Feb-27-09 07:27 AM   #31 
  - okay - so let's figure out this puzzle  UpInArms   Feb-27-09 08:15 AM   #47 
     - Sure looks like it... Doesn't it?  Hugin   Feb-27-09 08:23 AM   #48 
        - It certainly looks like a duck to me  UpInArms   Feb-27-09 09:17 AM   #76 
        - If my memory serves me right.....  AnneD   Feb-27-09 10:48 AM   #90 
           - BCCI=BFEE + Saudis  Demeter   Feb-27-09 01:42 PM   #100 
              - Why are you guys picking on the Bureau for Control of Cricket in India?  tclambert   Feb-27-09 02:57 PM   #103 
                 - because.....  AnneD   Feb-27-09 04:36 PM   #115 
  - Just exactly -where- are they going to get the substantial amounts of 'private capital' necessary?  Hugin   Feb-27-09 07:55 AM   #42 
     - The Carlyle Group? n/t  antigop   Feb-27-09 08:44 AM   #57 
     - Cerberus? n/t  DemReadingDU   Feb-27-09 10:36 AM   #85 
  - Yales Tobin Guides Obama From Grave as Friedman Is Eclipsed (good news!)  ozymandius   Feb-27-09 05:18 AM   #11 
  - Someone needs to tell Geithner, Summers and the rest of the Obama  amandabeech   Feb-27-09 07:05 AM   #24 
  - More on the Simply Dreadful Performance of CDOs  ozymandius   Feb-27-09 05:39 AM   #12 
  - Oh, but waiving Mark-to-Market will solve all those ills!  Roland99   Feb-27-09 06:25 AM   #17 
  - What do You do With a Bunch of Unsold Cars?  ozymandius   Feb-27-09 05:58 AM   #13 
  - I know where they can put them!  Tansy_Gold   Feb-27-09 06:22 AM   #16 
  - Remarkably Bad Timing, Tansy. We Are In for Really Foul Weather  Demeter   Feb-27-09 06:38 AM   #21 
     - Temps finally getting tolerable (for me) in the Carolina's.  Dr.Phool   Feb-27-09 07:07 AM   #25 
     - I know. and I don't even have the right clothes for it  Tansy_Gold   Feb-27-09 08:42 AM   #55 
        - Drive slowly and gently, Tansy.  tclambert   Feb-27-09 08:55 AM   #65 
        - Are you gonna be in Arlington Heights or Wheeling, IL this week-end?  Tansy_Gold   Feb-27-09 09:22 AM   #78 
           - Nah, I'm over by Demeter (well, 30 miles away) so my car should be safe.  tclambert   Feb-27-09 03:11 PM   #107 
        - Wish her a Happy BD. My dad's 80th is Monday.  Dr.Phool   Feb-27-09 10:15 AM   #81 
  - Let Oprah give them away  tclambert   Feb-27-09 03:00 PM   #105 
     - It's So Crazy It Just Might Work!  Demeter   Feb-27-09 05:28 PM   #116 
  - Fannie taps lifeline after $59B in losses  ozymandius   Feb-27-09 06:02 AM   #14 
  - Donald Trump on CNBC: Taxes on the wealthy are going up significantly  Roland99   Feb-27-09 06:21 AM   #15 
  - Well, If You Are Foreclosed Upon, There's No More Interest to Deduct...  Demeter   Feb-27-09 06:40 AM   #22 
  - Upper tax brackets only  RantinRavin   Feb-27-09 07:38 AM   #37 
     - Oh, well, obviously that's going to cause the housing market to crash further. Everyone will rent.  Roland99   Feb-27-09 07:44 AM   #39 
        - They're not swallowing it,  MattSh   Feb-27-09 09:04 AM   #69 
  - Well, boys and Girls, It's Friday Again  Demeter   Feb-27-09 06:45 AM   #23 
  - I'll be there.  Hugin   Feb-27-09 07:51 AM   #41 
  - NPR - Taxpayer Beware: Bank Bailout Will Hurt  DemReadingDU   Feb-27-09 07:18 AM   #27 
  - Why is it never the other way around?  BB1   Feb-27-09 09:04 AM   #70 
  - dollar watch  UpInArms   Feb-27-09 07:21 AM   #28 
  - Ex-Stanford employee warned regulators about fraud (in 2003)  UpInArms   Feb-27-09 07:25 AM   #30 
  - FBI makes first arrest in Stanford fraud case  UpInArms   Feb-27-09 08:06 AM   #45 
  - PA Unemployment  radfringe   Feb-27-09 07:30 AM   #33 
  - Glad I can file and request checks online.  Roland99   Feb-27-09 07:45 AM   #40 
  - she can too  radfringe   Feb-27-09 08:01 AM   #43 
  - Oh, I'm sure the Bank will accept that excuse in-lieu of a Mortgage Payment.  Hugin   Feb-27-09 08:07 AM   #46 
  - Under-Staffed?????  fasttense   Feb-27-09 08:50 AM   #61 
     - Exactly. This happened to spouse many years ago in Ohio  DemReadingDU   Feb-27-09 10:45 AM   #89 
     - Many states have a hiring freeze on due to budget problems.  tclambert   Feb-27-09 03:14 PM   #108 
  - Consumers lose access to their Experian credit scores (USAToday)  Hugin   Feb-27-09 08:29 AM   #49 
  - Good Gawd, how in the hell can they get away with this?!  nc4bo   Feb-27-09 08:34 AM   #52 
  - Just WHY Is It So Important to Monitor One's Credit Scores?  Demeter   Feb-27-09 10:41 AM   #88 
  - The FICO is nothing more than an I love debt score.....  AnneD   Feb-27-09 04:16 PM   #113 
     - Demeter Is Debt-Free Since 1998  Demeter   Feb-27-09 05:30 PM   #117 
        - That's impressive...  Pachamama   Feb-27-09 09:44 PM   #119 
        - I aspire....  AnneD   Feb-28-09 04:37 PM   #122 
  - DJIA -99 in first minute.  Roland99   Feb-27-09 08:31 AM   #50 
  - -123.  Hugin   Feb-27-09 08:33 AM   #51 
     - C is down approx 0.70 at 1.75. eom  Hugin   Feb-27-09 08:35 AM   #53 
        - It was as low as about $1.45 in early trading. DJIA -148 now.  Roland99   Feb-27-09 08:42 AM   #54 
           - BUY,BUY,BUY,BUY,BUY!!!!!  Dr.Phool   Feb-27-09 08:44 AM   #56 
           - THANK GAWD IT PASSED!!i!  Hugin   Feb-27-09 08:47 AM   #59 
           - C is at approx (-33.33%). nt  Hugin   Feb-27-09 08:45 AM   #58 
              - almost a billion shares traded, and it's only noon  DemReadingDU   Feb-27-09 11:20 AM   #94 
                 - Citigroup Beats WorldCom, Sets Stock Trading Record  DemReadingDU   Feb-27-09 05:57 PM   #118 
  - Major holders of C here...  antigop   Feb-27-09 08:52 AM   #62 
  - UpInArms has some commentary on that up thread.  Hugin   Feb-27-09 08:54 AM   #64 
  - If Citibank is bankrupt/insolvent/whatever  DemReadingDU   Feb-27-09 10:28 AM   #82 
     - Yes, it's not just the Saudis. n/t  antigop   Feb-27-09 10:41 AM   #87 
  - So long, Milton Friedman. Hello, James Tobin. (An Excellent Read)  KoKo   Feb-27-09 08:53 AM   #63 
  - I like Tobin just from this snippet.  tclambert   Feb-27-09 09:16 AM   #75 
  - Denver's Rocky Mountain News shuts doors (CNN)  Hugin   Feb-27-09 09:00 AM   #67 
  - That's quite a discontinuity between the close yesterday and the open today.  tclambert   Feb-27-09 09:03 AM   #68 
  - Problem U.S. bank list soars to 252  UpInArms   Feb-27-09 09:08 AM   #71 
  - Oh, boy...another one! Idaho Man Accused of Ponzi Scheme  antigop   Feb-27-09 10:36 AM   #84 
  - Has he gone camping yet?  Hugin   Feb-27-09 10:49 AM   #91 
     - Oh, Hugin, you make me laugh and I really need it. Thanks. n/t  antigop   Feb-27-09 10:51 AM   #92 
        - I'm glad you have a sense of humor.  Hugin   Feb-27-09 12:31 PM   #96 
           - But how can you NOT laugh at some of this crazy Sh*t?  tclambert   Feb-27-09 03:22 PM   #109 
  - FDIC Weighs One-Time Emergency Fee on Banks to Boost Reserves (Bloomberg)  Hugin   Feb-27-09 11:15 AM   #93 
  - FDIC could be forced to borrow money from taxpayers  DemReadingDU   Feb-27-09 02:06 PM   #101 
  - Pay Per Pee  Robbien   Feb-27-09 11:53 AM   #95 
  - They'll quickly change that policy the first time someone pees all over the cabin n/t  antigop   Feb-27-09 12:39 PM   #98 
  - Fee's are getting really stoopid and dishonest.  Dr.Phool   Feb-27-09 01:04 PM   #99 
  - "So sorry, exact change only. And no American or Canadian coins."  tclambert   Feb-27-09 03:26 PM   #111 
  - I remember saying -as a joke....  AnneD   Feb-27-09 04:26 PM   #114 
  - GE to reduce dividend from $0.31/quarter to $0.10/quarter  Roland99   Feb-27-09 12:32 PM   #97 
  - Mike Larson: Three market developments keeping me up at night  DemReadingDU   Feb-27-09 02:26 PM   #102 
  - U.S. Market Summary from Yahoo  DoBotherMe   Feb-27-09 02:59 PM   #104 
  - If we could see Bernanke's Inbox we'd probably find something like this  TheWatcher   Feb-27-09 03:04 PM   #106 
  - Here is your Faerie  DemWynner   Feb-27-09 03:22 PM   #110 
     - People have to understand though that the Fairies are actually causing much more harm than good.  TheWatcher   Feb-27-09 04:02 PM   #112 
  - closing numbers - read 'em and weep  UpInArms   Feb-27-09 09:51 PM   #120 
 

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