Reply #74: Consider the unknowns in Drake's equation

[exboyfil]

We already know, from one example, that it takes 4 B years to go from planet formation to technological life. We also know from the history on our planet that we had several keyhole events (probably all or nearly all asteroid impacts) that nearly wiped out all life. We also had at least one keyhole event in human history in which our population nearly zeroed out, and we would have had to evolve another species.

We also know we live in a pretty nice part of the galaxy. Its good to not be close to nasty neighbors that spew out gamma rays etc.

We have also seen, from one example, that holding onto a technological society is a precarious prospect. What would be the estimate that we would maintain our technology for the next 100 years (50/50??)

To develop rocky planets, metals, etc you need a second generation neighborhood (a first generation star needs to have gone supernova). That reduces the available history for developing technological civilizations by 3-5 billion years.

The biggest problem is that it probably does not matter. The only conceivable ways we can think of to violate Einstein's speed limit involves tremendous (think more than a Dyson sphere levels of energy). Now we are maybe not smart enough to pick up on better technologies, but we seem to know a whole lot about physics right now.

Assuming that the speed of light is a fixed quantity and communication/travel can occur at only that speed, it means our area of influence will always be very small. I am willing to bet, given the above conditions, that we have no technological civilizations within 1000 light years of us (a million stars give or take). Little chance exists that we can detect a technological signal beyond that point unless it is a beacon or other conscious attempt to communicate (I guess some non repeatable events such as truly advanced propulsion systems would also be detectable).