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Reply #82: Right over the loop current eddy [View All]

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Strelnikov_ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-28-08 07:56 AM
Response to Reply #81
82. Right over the loop current eddy

Gustav's intensification potential in the Gulf of Mexico

As we saw in 2005 with Katrina and Rita, the large amounts of deep, warm water brought into the Gulf of Mexico by the Loop Current can help intensify hurricanes to Category 5 intensity. As explained in my Loop Current tutorial, the Loop Current is an ocean current that transports warm Caribbean water through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico. The current flows northward into the Gulf of Mexico, then loops southeastward through the Florida Keys. The Loop Current commonly bulges out in the northern Gulf of Mexico and sometimes will shed a clockwise rotating ring of warm water that separates from the main current. This ring of warm water slowly drifts west-southwestward towards Texas or Mexico at about 3-5 km per day. This feature is called a "Loop Current Ring", "Loop Current Eddy", or "Warm Core Ring", and can provide a key source of energy to fuel rapid intensification of hurricanes that cross the Gulf. The Loop Current itself can also fuel rapid intensification, such as happened with Hurricane Charley in 2004. When a Loop Current Eddy breaks off in the Gulf of Mexico at the height of hurricane season, it can lead to a dangerous situation where a vast reservoir of energy is available to any hurricane that might cross over. This occurred in 2005, when a Loop Current Eddy separated in July, just before Hurricane Katrina passed over and "bombed" into a Category 5 hurricane. The eddy remained in the Gulf and slowly drifted westward during September. Hurricane Rita passed over the same Loop Current Eddy three weeks after Katrina, and also explosively deepened to a Category 5 storm.

This year, we had another Loop Current Eddy break off in July. This eddy is now positioned due south of New Orleans (Figure 2), and this eddy has similar levels of heat energy to the 2005 eddy that powered Katrina and Rita. Should Gustav pass over or just to the left of this eddy, we can expect the storm to significantly intensify. There is also a weaker eddy present in the western Gulf; this eddy broke off from the Loop Current in April, and is much cooler then the eddy that broke off in July. Should Gustav pass over the April eddy, it shouldn't make much difference.

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  -Gustav May Rival Katrina as It Advances Toward Gulf of Mexico Purveyor  Aug-27-08 11:41 AM   #0 
  - Oh, no!  AirmensMom   Aug-27-08 11:49 AM   #1 
  - Looks like Mississippi is going to take another direct hit too.  Justyce   Aug-27-08 11:58 AM   #2 
  - According to your bloomberg link, Katrina was only 3 when it hit land  Kittycat   Aug-27-08 12:02 PM   #3 
  - Yes it was.  geomon666   Aug-27-08 12:06 PM   #5 
  - But it was pushing the Cat. 5 storm surge it had generated in the Gulf  loindelrio   Aug-27-08 01:17 PM   #10 
  - Actually, Katrina was a strong 4 when it *first* hit land  KamaAina   Aug-27-08 01:47 PM   #12 
  - The angle that Katrina hit with amplified the wave impact. There are also far less  ElectricGrid   Aug-27-08 01:53 PM   #13 
  - K was a strong Cat 3 when it hit Buras, pushing a Cat 5 storm surge as the post pointed out above.  Brotherjohn   Aug-27-08 03:40 PM   #32 
     - i heard cat 4 at buras (buras was utterly destroyed)  pitohui   Aug-27-08 11:11 PM   #50 
  - The problem with Katrina was not so much the hurricane itself  LynneSin   Aug-27-08 03:45 PM   #34 
  - katrina was a cat 3 at new orleans so the levees were not up to spec  pitohui   Aug-27-08 11:21 PM   #51 
  - Katrina was a cat 3 at landfall.  RL3AO   Aug-28-08 05:58 PM   #111 
  - People in the gulf you need to listen.  geomon666   Aug-27-08 12:04 PM   #4 
  - I wonder if...  ImForGore   Aug-27-08 12:07 PM   #6 
  - If we'll recall  RedLetterRev   Aug-27-08 02:45 PM   #22 
     - And I remember all the private boats off Florida that were ready to go  yardwork   Aug-27-08 03:49 PM   #37 
     - RE: the repuke government doesn't give a damn  ImForGore   Aug-27-08 10:48 PM   #49 
        - I totally agree nt  MaryEllen37   Aug-28-08 11:48 AM   #93 
  - While I feel sorry for the people in the path of the hurricane  cosmicone   Aug-28-08 04:25 PM   #108 
  - mods we need a disaster forum or something  Baclava   Aug-27-08 12:09 PM   #7 
  - Link to Hurricane Survivor' forum (damn, was hoping we done with it)  uppityperson   Aug-27-08 03:04 PM   #25 
  - We tried to get one started before....  AnneD   Aug-27-08 03:48 PM   #36 
  - This is exactly why  awoke_in_2003   Aug-27-08 12:12 PM   #8 
  - You are inadvertently correct.  twiceshy   Aug-27-08 03:03 PM   #24 
  - Something else is just like Katrina:  phantom power   Aug-27-08 12:18 PM   #9 
  - Now THAT....  AnneD   Aug-27-08 03:53 PM   #38 
  - kicking.  yardwork   Aug-27-08 01:20 PM   #11 
  - Five day tracking Take care folks. Don't try to ride it out.  alfredo   Aug-27-08 02:07 PM   #14 
  - Oh man...  bicentennial_baby   Aug-27-08 02:20 PM   #17 
  - Yikes ...  humbled_opinion   Aug-27-08 02:14 PM   #15 
  - They may be losing Bobby Jindal  starroute   Aug-27-08 03:36 PM   #30 
     - Damn.  Kool Kitty   Aug-28-08 11:26 AM   #91 
  - Hang on to your wallets  Wednesdays   Aug-27-08 02:14 PM   #16 
  - Back in 1977 I worked at Mobil Oil's Buffalo refinery during a  hedgehog   Aug-27-08 02:41 PM   #21 
     - Shhh, that's a secret  Changenow   Aug-27-08 02:50 PM   #23 
        - They also neglect to mention they are exporting refined gasoline to Mexico and China.  denverbill   Aug-27-08 04:04 PM   #41 
  - While Katrinas winds and rain were bad, it was really the breaking of the levees  Dover   Aug-27-08 02:32 PM   #18 
  - That is true. However....  geomon666   Aug-27-08 03:23 PM   #27 
  - The damage along the MS coast was worse than Camille  wxmike   Aug-27-08 04:08 PM   #42 
  - it has the ominous feeling... I hope I'm wrong  themartyred   Aug-27-08 02:33 PM   #19 
  - and PS  themartyred   Aug-27-08 02:33 PM   #20 
  - I have a friend in Baton Rouge  JonLP24   Aug-27-08 03:21 PM   #26 
  - My cousin in NOLA  leftynyc   Aug-27-08 03:43 PM   #33 
  - Even with a direct hit Baton Rouge will likely have  Ex Lurker   Aug-27-08 03:58 PM   #40 
     - Wasn't sure how far north Baton Rouge is  JonLP24   Aug-27-08 04:22 PM   #47 
  - If it has to hit us, I hope it takes out some oil rigs on the way.  Phoonzang   Aug-27-08 03:29 PM   #28 
  - Our fearless leader should head down there now.  onehandle   Aug-27-08 03:32 PM   #29 
  - Well we know Obama will be there along with the rest of our great leaders  LynneSin   Aug-27-08 03:46 PM   #35 
  - Jesus, he should stay away! KEEP THE ROADS OPEN. (nt)  SteveM   Aug-27-08 04:08 PM   #43 
  - Oh good, another chance...  Limelight   Aug-27-08 03:39 PM   #31 
  - We saw the first over $4 per gallon gas right after Katrina  benld74   Aug-27-08 03:54 PM   #39 
  - Damn- this doesn't look good!  Kajsa   Aug-27-08 04:09 PM   #44 
  - well it's 6 days out and Katrina was a very unusual hurricane  wxmike   Aug-27-08 04:14 PM   #45 
  - We had 2 more storms that rivaled Katrina in 2005  lastliberalintexas   Aug-28-08 10:43 AM   #86 
  - Is it time for ANOTHER Bush vacation already?  Wizard777   Aug-27-08 04:17 PM   #46 
  - Another once-in-almost-500-years hurricane just three years later?  indepat   Aug-27-08 04:23 PM   #48 
  - How is it once in 500 years when we had 3 in 2005 alone?  lastliberalintexas   Aug-28-08 10:47 AM   #87 
     - Yeah it was bad.  geomon666   Aug-28-08 11:33 AM   #92 
     - Was wondering that myself having lived in New Orleans at the time of Betsy  indepat   Aug-28-08 05:06 PM   #110 
  - Fear for weekend in gulf...Major hurricane tracks to N.O. on eve of GOP convention  Liberty Belle   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #52 
  - Didn't they pray for rain  LeighAnn   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #53 
  - Yeah but...  jeff30997   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #54 
  - We've had our share of rain this summer, believe me.  8_year_nightmare   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #71 
     - yeah  loves_dulcinea   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #74 
  - Would this mean that THIS time  Dem2theMax   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #55 
  - Or perhaps REMINDING us that McCain was eating cake while N.O. drowned  lynnertic   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #56 
  - Obama must do a commercial of that and  Changenow   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #67 
  - You people sound like Pat Robertson  lastliberalintexas   Aug-28-08 10:49 AM   #88 
  - Why does God hate the GOP? n/t  dotcosm   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #57 
  - Because he's omniscient. God knows a fuck-up when he sees one.  Kaleko   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #58 
     - Plus you're not supposed to pray for bad things to happen to your enemies  LeighAnn   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #65 
     - Deleted message  Name removed   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #70 
     - Please familiarize yourself with our usual decorum  Flirtus   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #73 
     - Actually, the Bible is replete with people praying for bad things to happen to their enemies.  The Stranger   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #76 
     - LOL  lynnertic   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #79 
  - but their convention is not in nola.....? n/t  orleans   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #59 
  - They'll be at the other end of the Mississippi, won't they? /nt  mwb970   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #60 
  - what will the MSM do?  northernlights   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #61 
  - They'll look at who signs their check, then ditch us.  Festivito   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #62 
  - Well if it takes out some rigs  Mojorabbit   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #63 
  - Did you think that out before you typed it? Or would you really hope for the worst scenario  8_year_nightmare   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #72 
     - I am not hoping for anything  Mojorabbit   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #77 
        - There's nothing wrong with capitalizing on their mistakes, so it's my bad. Thanks.  8_year_nightmare   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #80 
  - See also:  IanDB1   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #64 
  - Not to mention, August 29 is 3rd anniversary of Let Them Eat McCake day! n/t  Feles Mala   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #66 
  - Uh - The Republican convention is in Minneapolis.  yellowcanine   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #68 
  - Deleted sub-thread  Name removed   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #69 
  - If I was a religious person, I'd say this was a sign from God to the Republicans. nt  Vinca   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #75 
  - LOL, Isn't that the truth.  IsItJustMe   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #78 
  - Models starting to trend west  loindelrio   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #81 
  - Right over the loop current eddy  loindelrio   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #82 
     - Informative post n/t  Psephos   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #85 
     - ugggh  lastliberalintexas   Aug-28-08 10:57 AM   #89 
  - why would GW steer another one into NO?  ileus   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #83 
  - O.P. seems to think repug convention is in New Orleans. It's not - try Minneapolis. n/t  Psephos   Aug-28-08 07:56 AM   #84 
  - Hanna is coming too  harun   Aug-28-08 11:02 AM   #90 
  - Scary stuff. Watch it, people.  Amonester   Aug-28-08 11:57 AM   #94 
  - WOW! I had no idea ...  daggahead   Aug-28-08 12:21 PM   #95 
  - OMG neither did I!  MadrasT   Aug-28-08 01:09 PM   #96 
  - Look at the Atlantic  alfredo   Aug-28-08 01:14 PM   #97 
  - Hannah presents a significant risk to GA, SC & NC .... Stay Tuned! n/t  Blackhatjack   Aug-28-08 01:20 PM   #98 
  - and fL  Max_powers94   Aug-28-08 03:47 PM   #104 
     - Poor Florida has been like a hurricane magnet ... that goes without saying.  Blackhatjack   Aug-28-08 04:13 PM   #107 
  - I hope they have transportation ready  Stern21   Aug-28-08 01:33 PM   #99 
  - Gustav AND Hannah to strike New Orleans?  JeanGrey   Aug-28-08 03:45 PM   #100 
  - Well is was nice to know NO..if this happens then that all she wrote  Max_powers94   Aug-28-08 03:45 PM   #101 
  - This could be much worse than Katrina. NO really didn't get  JeanGrey   Aug-30-08 11:58 AM   #116 
  - Hannah is way too far out to worry about yet  simskl   Aug-28-08 03:45 PM   #102 
  - True. But still, very scary.  JeanGrey   Aug-28-08 03:53 PM   #105 
     - No question I'd be worried but I wouldn't panic yet  simskl   Aug-28-08 03:58 PM   #106 
  - OMG! That's terrible for NOLA. I'm in So Fla so it will hit us first!  demo dutch   Aug-28-08 03:45 PM   #103 
  - If you can do so now, get your children, pets and supplies and start NOW.  The Stranger   Aug-28-08 04:34 PM   #109 
  - It's already started  LivinginLA   Aug-28-08 06:07 PM   #112 
  - Hanna is getting shredded today.  RL3AO   Aug-28-08 06:09 PM   #113 
  - NHCs language getting stronger and stronger.  RL3AO   Aug-28-08 10:09 PM   #114 
  - News flash: GOP has been hit by....Hurricane Obama!  Liberty Belle   Aug-29-08 01:04 AM   #115 
  - Now a category 4  RL3AO   Aug-30-08 12:21 PM   #117 

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