Reply #112: *** Wanna know how spot-on we are in this here thread? ***

[Roland99]

Ok, so it's minor league anecdotal evidence but, hey, validation nonetheless!!


I was on the phone w/a buddy of mine, happens to be a fellow DUer, and we were discussing the state of economic affairs: the rate cut, the spike, the settling down, the bond insurer (FGIC) downgrade and the subsequent negative close for the Dow. We also discussed how houses were overvalued by overzealous mortgage brokers and no one was paying attention as long as the money was rolling in. Talked about how some in the media (CNBC on-air Director and Dave Ramsey) are, well, blaming the media for the housing crash and economic slide (self-fulfilling prophecy, I guess). Talked about ARMs and people being stuck after the house's value dropped so they couldn't refinance out of the adjusting ARM. All kinds of that type of stuff.

Anyway...

He called me back about 20 min. later and said, "Guess who was in line behind me while we were talking? The loan manager at a local bank. And he said he overheard the conversation and that we were 'spot on' about everything. He said it's only going to get worse. He also said he has a friend that's a stockbroker for a big brokerage house and he said if you own one stock, that's one stock too many."


Yikes!


But, gee, imagine that. A computer programmer whose only economic training was a couple of economics classes in college, 22 years ago, and a blue-collar worker for an American manufacturer. Yet we were 'spot on'.

I have to give props to everyone in this thread from whom I've learned so much; who've clued me in to Shadowstats, Mogambo, etc. and corrected me from time to time or, heck, validated my gut instincts.


So, here's to you, Bearers of Bulls and Bears Business Bulletins!

:toast: