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Reply #66: Maybe it was your wording [View All]

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ozone_man Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-10-07 12:40 PM
Response to Reply #63
66. Maybe it was your wording
"the stock exchange is the LAST place where the economic instablity shows up" I was reacting to.

Here's a description of a more typical view that the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy and recession. I think what most people call the economy may not apply to certain fundamentals weakening early on. But as we know, the stock market doesn't always move according to fundamentals. Lot's of psychology in that process.

Leading: Leading economic indicators are indicators which change before the economy changes. Stock market returns are a leading indicator, as the stock market usually begins to decline before the economy declines and they improve before the economy begins to pull out of a recession. Leading economic indicators are the most important type for investors as they help predict what the economy will be like in the future.

http://economics.about.com/cs/businesscycles/a/economic...

As far as I know, a recession has not been declared and probably won't for several months. And then there is the election year coming up. How will that affect the economy? I'm sure they will try to prime the economy and stock market one more time by lowering rates, but after the election the bottom will fall out. Maybe before even.
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  -STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday September 10 ozymandius  Sep-10-07 05:08 AM   #0 
  - Market WrapUp  ozymandius   Sep-10-07 05:13 AM   #1 
  - Central bankers warn housing crisis could hit whole US economy  Ghost Dog   Sep-10-07 10:22 AM   #49 
  - Today's Report  ozymandius   Sep-10-07 05:15 AM   #2 
  - Oil falls towards $76 ahead of OPEC  ozymandius   Sep-10-07 05:17 AM   #3 
  - OPEC oil ministers say crude plentiful  ozymandius   Sep-10-07 05:20 AM   #4 
  - Oct. reformulated gas falls 2.3% to $1.94/gal  Roland99   Sep-10-07 10:03 AM   #46 
  - Gas costs spark high-speed rail interest  ozymandius   Sep-10-07 05:24 AM   #5 
  - Stock futures inch up  Roland99   Sep-10-07 05:25 AM   #6 
  - Good morning Roland and everyone!  ozymandius   Sep-10-07 05:33 AM   #9 
  - Asia stocks slide  ozymandius   Sep-10-07 05:26 AM   #7 
  - Wall Street awaits Fed announcement  ozymandius   Sep-10-07 05:29 AM   #8 
  - Disney to start testing toys after recalls: report  ozymandius   Sep-10-07 05:37 AM   #10 
  - Lessons learnt help Japan avoid subprime upheaval  ozymandius   Sep-10-07 05:41 AM   #11 
  - Well, What will today bring us?  Buttercup McToots   Sep-10-07 06:06 AM   #12 
  - Mr. Toad's Wild Ride?  Roland99   Sep-10-07 07:20 AM   #14 
     - Morning Marketeers....  AnneD   Sep-10-07 08:02 AM   #20 
  - Subprime: Let the finger-pointing begin!  ozymandius   Sep-10-07 06:06 AM   #13 
  - What better way to make slaves.  formercia   Sep-10-07 07:29 AM   #15 
     - Why didn't people with sub-prime variable rates, refinance?  DemReadingDU   Sep-10-07 07:47 AM   #18 
     - From what I can gather...  AnneD   Sep-10-07 08:23 AM   #22 
     - Makes sense now, thanks  DemReadingDU   Sep-10-07 08:37 AM   #30 
     - many of those loans started out with Interest Only or even lower payments  AZDemDist6   Sep-10-07 08:27 AM   #25 
     - Where I live in SW Ohio, this would affect people  DemReadingDU   Sep-10-07 08:40 AM   #31 
        - 75000 a year should put them in a house around $200000  AZDemDist6   Sep-10-07 08:59 AM   #34 
           - They are not screwen...  AnneD   Sep-10-07 09:29 AM   #38 
     - Refinancing costs money they don't have  Warpy   Sep-10-07 09:28 AM   #37 
        - Although I am not in ...  AnneD   Sep-10-07 09:49 AM   #44 
     - The difference between a slave and a serf:  formercia   Sep-10-07 09:33 AM   #39 
        - Plus early repayment penalties so even if you do refi, you're hit with 2-3% penalty  Roland99   Sep-10-07 10:44 AM   #53 
  - Don't put your eye out on those futures charts!  JNelson6563   Sep-10-07 07:33 AM   #16 
  - Back-to-School Sales: *Weaker Than They Appear  displacedtexan   Sep-10-07 07:38 AM   #17 
  - Check this out  JNelson6563   Sep-10-07 07:52 AM   #19 
  - Heh-heh. There it is again....Something called "d-o-o" economics. Anyone? Anyone?  54anickel   Sep-10-07 06:41 PM   #73 
  - USD $79.87 @ 9:17 am  Buttercup McToots   Sep-10-07 08:19 AM   #21 
  - USD $79.78 @ 9:40 am  Buttercup McToots   Sep-10-07 08:51 AM   #33 
     - Dom Perignon?  TheBorealAvenger   Sep-10-07 04:37 PM   #70 
  - dollar watch (achieving new 52 week lows - actually 16 yr lows)  UpInArms   Sep-10-07 08:24 AM   #23 
  - Fed's Lockhart: worry of dollar selloff exaggerated  UpInArms   Sep-10-07 09:34 AM   #42 
  - Go ahead, Lockhart...  roamer65   Sep-10-07 11:29 AM   #61 
  - Oh wow and believe it or not I know a trader  nadinbrzezinski   Sep-10-07 10:50 AM   #55 
  - Bond Funds May Be Next to Feel Subprime Shockwaves  DemReadingDU   Sep-10-07 08:24 AM   #24 
  - Americans living beyond their means  Roland99   Sep-10-07 08:28 AM   #26 
  - Countrywide to cut up to 12,000 jobs  UpInArms   Sep-10-07 08:33 AM   #27 
  - 'R' word could spell trouble for Republicans  UpInArms   Sep-10-07 08:34 AM   #28 
  - Broker earnings to give investors early damage report from credit crunch  UpInArms   Sep-10-07 08:36 AM   #29 
  - 9:39 EST happy numbers and blather  UpInArms   Sep-10-07 08:40 AM   #32 
  - IT ONLY MATTERS IF YOU HAVE MONEY  happygoluckytoyou   Sep-10-07 09:04 AM   #35 
  - It affects everyone...  silverlib   Sep-10-07 09:22 AM   #36 
  - It's more like trickle all over economics.  fasttense   Sep-10-07 09:53 AM   #45 
     - It is not exactly like that  nadinbrzezinski   Sep-10-07 11:09 AM   #57 
        - Stock market is usually a leading indicator.  ozone_man   Sep-10-07 11:26 AM   #59 
           - If you examine 1929 the crash  nadinbrzezinski   Sep-10-07 11:38 AM   #63 
              - Maybe it was your wording  ozone_man   Sep-10-07 12:40 PM   #66 
                 - Well the indicators also include inflation and  nadinbrzezinski   Sep-10-07 02:48 PM   #68 
  - True, the unregulated "investor class" is quickly becoming despised  specimenfred1984   Sep-10-07 09:34 AM   #41 
  - Yep, that is why the poor in 1929  nadinbrzezinski   Sep-10-07 11:08 AM   #56 
  - Fed Pumping Continues Unabated: Fed adds $2.75 bln temporary reserves in overnight repo  UpInArms   Sep-10-07 09:33 AM   #40 
  - Annual M3 Money supply growth hits 14% in August.  roamer65   Sep-10-07 11:33 AM   #62 
  - Washington Mutual sees more 2007 loan losses  UpInArms   Sep-10-07 09:37 AM   #43 
  - US STOCKS-Indexes flat as recession concern returns  UpInArms   Sep-10-07 10:11 AM   #47 
  - Fed's Yellen sounds the alarm  UpInArms   Sep-10-07 10:19 AM   #48 
  - 11:38am - Testing 13k level again?  Roland99   Sep-10-07 10:38 AM   #50 
  - 11:37 update  JNelson6563   Sep-10-07 10:40 AM   #51 
  - Jinx!  Roland99   Sep-10-07 10:46 AM   #54 
  - Not unexpeced or surprising  nadinbrzezinski   Sep-10-07 10:41 AM   #52 
  - Credit crunch to crimp hedge-fund bonuses: report  Roland99   Sep-10-07 11:20 AM   #58 
  - tell them to stop whining  kineneb   Sep-10-07 12:14 PM   #65 
  - 12:27 update  JNelson6563   Sep-10-07 11:29 AM   #60 
  - Look at the day chart  nadinbrzezinski   Sep-10-07 11:43 AM   #64 
  - Approaching the close and all's well!!  Roland99   Sep-10-07 02:42 PM   #67 
     - Does anyone ever use the words  PATRICK   Sep-10-07 03:14 PM   #69 
        - No  nadinbrzezinski   Sep-10-07 05:47 PM   #71 
  - a know-nonsense end to the day  ozymandius   Sep-10-07 05:56 PM   #72 
 

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