Reply #51: It's "all in together" time. The House of Saud can't have a Sunni bloodbath in Iraq, they just

[MADem]

can't. But unless someone helps those guys, or they all decide to go the highly unlikely Peace/Love route, it will happen. And realistically, we are the Saudi Arabian army. It's the deal we made with them, all those years ago. It's why we don't pay six bucks a gallon for gas, like the Europeans do.

And you're right--it IS blackmail, on the one hand, and a bit of carrot and stick, on the other.

If the US refuses to stay, they'll fund the hell out of the Sunnis so that they can protect themselves with superior weaponry (and no doubt some quiet help from rent-an-Army, say, Syria, who are just sitting on their asses since getting out of Lebanon, really--and they don't have oil fields themselves, either...maybe Jordan will kick in a unit or two to sit in the rear with the gear, who knows?). Maybe they'll go mercenary/contractor to get the job done, like some of the guys who provided log support to Osama and the Northern Alliance all those years ago, but on a larger scale...and THAT will get interesting...

If the Iranians try to countermove by funding the Shi'a, the House of Saud'll cut the price of oil to the floor so the Iranians have to pump all day and night to make enough dough just to pay their PAYROLLS, which are bloated with do-nothing mullahs and morality policemen. They'll have no spare cash to incite riots or fund Shi'as.

Of course, how long can that go on...it will screw up a LOT of oil-based economies all round the world if the price of oil collapses, and it will hasten the day when we all have some serious worries.

If I were China, I'd be figuring out how to increase capacity of existing refineries and maybe building a shitload of storage tanks right about now. Buy low, sell high, after all! And they're the guys with the spare cash, sitting on a TON of US dollars.....