Reply #25: Ukraine's Orange revolution turns blue

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· Comeback for Yanukovich after his opponents split
· Nato membership at risk if MPs turn back to Moscow
The divided leaders of Ukraine's orange revolution were beaten into second place in parliamentary elections yesterday, less than 18 months since jubilant crowds swept them to power.

Early exit polls suggested the former prime minister, Viktor Yanukovich, was likely to seize between a quarter and a third of parliament, raising the possibility he could take back his post. That would put him in an uneasy cohabitation with Viktor Yushchenko, the president and his opponent during the falsified election which gave birth to the revolution in late 2004 and early 2005.

Mr Yanukovich's Party of the Regions led with 33% in a nationwide independent exit poll published as polling stations closed at 10pm local time. Mr Yushchenko's erstwhile ally Yulia Timoshenko appeared to have made a surprisingly strong finish with 23% for her bloc. The president's Our Ukraine party, which had been expected to come second, came third with less than 14%, according to the exit poll.

This suggested a humiliating defeat for the president and other leaders of the revolution, although Ms Timoshenko will be in a strengthened position to take the premiership in the case of a revived orange coalition. Mr Yushchenko's post was not at stake, but a big win for the Party of the Regions could allow it to deflect the country from its pro-western course, reject Nato membership, and switch its trajectory back towards Russia. But the outcome still depends on intense horsetrading between the three main parties which could last for weeks after the vote. Whether Mr Yushchenko and Ms Timoshenko's supporters can reunite their orange team remains in doubt. She took her party into opposition in September after she had been sacked from the premiership when corruption allegations between senior officials came into the open.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/ukraine/story/0,,1740427,00.html